05 August 2008

The Message of the Markets


Today's market action looked like a major Wall Street insiders push to break the traders/funds who were playing the long oil-long metals - short dollar-short financials cross trades. They were leaning awfully hard on them.

Just as an update we took down our short oil - long gold cross trade the past couple days. We wanted to be in a stronger cash position to be a able to move quickly in case some things unfold as we expect they might.

The volumes are just not there so far to justify this run up in the stock indices. The Fed did not do anything today to justify a 300+ point rally. The spin on financial television is running hard from the 'chief strategists.' Wall Street wants to get the market up and offload more shares to mom and pop to further damage the economy for their own benefit. That's what they do. This is why our economy is sick. It is being run by shills and gamblers for the benefit of 'the house.'

We will be very surprised if the market does not sell off tomorrow, but we have an open mind and will start considering the notion of government intervention which could sustain a prolonged 'reflation rally.' If the Fed and Treasury can get behind this in a meaningful way then all bets are off.

But for now this just looks like the Wall Street wiseguys peeking at the other players cards from their seating vantage points as insiders and limit raising the bets against the prevailing trades on the trend fundamentals. If this is the case, the prior trends should reassert themselves within the week. If not, then we might be in a new ballgame.

We will WAIT for a sign that this is the case, although we did put on a few Sept. Index shorts into the close. There is no point jumping in front of this in case it is something more profound than just the usual Wall Street shenanigans.