11 August 2010

SP 500 and NDX September Futures Daily Charts; Gold Daily Chart

Today we had the reaction to the FOMC announcement that I was expecting, a failure at overhead resistance that dropped down to the support at our pivot, almost exactly, and going out on the lows.

What next? It's hard to say. The best that can be said for the bulls is that the selling today was on volumes that remain light. But that is also a negative, because this means the market has not yet flushed out to the downside.

This leaves the equity market open to manipulation by the big trading desks, who will trigger a snapback rally if too many specs pile on to the short side. But the momentum is now to the downside.

I would look for the futures to test the lowest levels of the overnight trade during that session, and then a recovery and probe back down after the New York open, and most likely a snapback rally during the day to squeeze the spec shorts. At least, that it the strawman, but we'll trade the market we are given.

Cisco missed its revenue after the bell, but hit its earnings, which is a almost a slam dunk given their acquisition and holdback style of accounting. This does not bode well for the techs.

NYSE Volume

Today we had a pullback in gold to support. The traders on chatboards greatly exaggerate these moves in their chatter. Try not to fall into that trap. So far the trend is well intact.