14 November 2012

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - VIX Finally Rises

One of the things that has been puzzling about this decline is the relatively low number on the VIX.

That means that this entire decline has been accompanied by much less 'fear' than one would expect. This is consistent with my prediction that an Obama election win would result in a fairly stiff selloff as profits are taken this year in anticipation of a tax increase for those making over $250,000 per year beginning in January.

Let's see how the VIX goes from here. The selling is very orderly and if it is tax related at some point the selling becomes self defeating, which is when the small speculators will be joining in by design, selling out of fear at the bottom.

IF this is true, and nothing develops in the Middle East for example, I would expect to see prices stabilize and even rally in December.

I do think the fiscal cliff is bollocks. I could be wrong, but I do not think so.