14 May 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - And the Small Caps Shall Lead Them...

This is a particularly situation here in the equity markets.

Deception is rampant in the accounting for company numbers. The trading is very 'technical' and the underpinnings of the stock market are as sound as a three card monte game.

Forget the fundamentals for now. Unless there is an exogenous shock, I think the market can continue to rise in a very Ponzi-like manner, perhaps to what will in retrospect be viewed as a 'blow off top.'  If a shock comes, or if enough time passes to lower the bar for a 'trigger event' sufficiently, a meltdown is certainly possible.

Watch the Russell, as the SP is the lead sled dog for leveraged manipulation, and the DJIA is strictly for tourists. The broader market for small caps will give you the temperature for things as they are, moreso than the headline indices.

I am not short equities. Not yet. But I am watchful, and am holding a conservative portfolio, holding no US stocks. 

This might be more entertaining to watch, if I were not in such close proximity to it.   Call me Ishmael.

Have a pleasant evening.