29 October 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Downward Spiral of Dumbness

"The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.

Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated."

FOMC Statement, Oct 29, 2014

I think Bob Pisani literally squeaked when he read 'sooner' in the underlined portion of that FOMC statement, asserting that this was a 'hawkish' statement indeed.  He did not bother to reference the next sentences that begins, 'conversely.'

And I think the wiseguys knew that the Fed was basically saying nothing new, but throwing a farewell bone to the hawk Plosser on the committee, who won't be around after the first of the year, and the complexion of the FOMC turns decidedly more dovish in nature.

The US dollar spiked, but forex has a notorious carney game intraday, but that moved key commodities like gold and oil in the 'right direction' which is down. 

And the hosts and guests on bubblevision continued to burble on about 'rate increases' and 'amazing corporate profits' for the rest of the afternoon.

I am sure we will have loads of fun speculating about what the Fed will do next for quite some time.

Let's see how the rest of the world takes the news that the Fed has its hand on the tiller of the world's economy, to take it where they will.

I think the Fed will move when something forces their hand, and not one minute before.  And I will be glad but surprised if it is a booming economy fueled by organic growth and domestic consumption  next year.

Have a pleasant evening.