02 December 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Well Meaning and Clueless, or Reckless and Self-Absorbed

The Bailout
“When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”

Edmund Burke

In general, I to to apply the maxim that one ought never to attribute to bad intent what can more easily be attributed to well-intentioned stupidity.

I bring this up now, because I continue to struggle with the thought processes of a government and a central bank that seem intent on creating another bubble and subsequent financial crisis.

The first time it was shame on them, and this was the tech bubble and Y2K, that were quickly forgotten in the tragedy of 9/11.

The second time it was the housing and credit fraud bubble, and it was shame on us for idly standing by and allowing ourselves to be robbed and denied justice in the bailout. But in our defense, frightened people often agree to do and accept foolish things.
I also wish to remind ourselves of the obvious, that this is not the US or the Fed acting alone.  There seems to be an almost unnatural unanimity in this amongst the Western powers.  The bubble breaks, and some people somewhere are victimized, even if they had relatively little to do with it.  The story is always painted, that they are lazy and foolish, and had it coming to them.

Will there be a third time, yet another financial crisis that shakes the financial system?   Powerful and reckless people often find the changes enabled by a crisis to be both rewarding and exhilarating, in the exercise of raw power and the stuffing of their own pockets.

So, if there is in fact a third financial crisis in the world, we might well expect to see the furtive hand of the financial system reaching into the public's pockets once again, supported by their politicians urging them to give way to save themselves.  And this may happen again in any part of the Western world.

And at that point the most effective course of action may be for the public to gather themselves as a people and say 'enough!'  And with all due process, civility, and respect for justice and the law, to cut that hand off, figuratively speaking.  And then they may proceed on to the difficult business of reform.

Have a pleasant evening.