06 March 2015

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Yes it certainly is a Non-Farm Jobs Payrolls day.

Apparently if you stack low paying part time jobs high enough it means something.

The dollar took off on the 'blowout' jobs number. With the rest of the world in the process of cutting interest rates, the US looks to be getting ready to raise rates, which is certainly boosting the DX index, which is most heavily weighted to the euro.

One thing I have never seen before to my memory is the negative estimate I have on the Sprott Silver Trust's cash position. Keeping in mind of course that this is my estimate based on what numbers they do publish.  And it could be wrong.  But if it is, it is not for a lack on trying to find out.

I believe they have several options to resolve this, but they do not seem to be in any hurry to share this information with their unit holders.  And it doesn't appear to be for any lack of Sprott spokespersons who are available to give their opinions on so many other things.

As I reminder, I recommend nothing to anyone, ever.  I am not in a professional position to do so.  I am actively watching macro-economic developments, and then putting out my own analysis and theories about what is happening and why.  And this does involve watching individual sectors and representative firms.

I am watching these particular trust and funds because they are closed end and publish some timely statistics, meaning that there is a way to track their variance to Net Asset Value.  And they offer a useful cross section of redeemable, non-redeemable, and a mix of gold and silver.  I do not track any open ended funds designed to track the price of an underlying commodity.  Some people do.

Everyone's individual financial position is unique, requiring much more information than a public blog will have.  I put what I know and what I think out there, and people may make their own best judgements.

I bring this up now because people have a tendency to take full credit for all their successes, but their failures are orphans at best.   Sometimes people will ask for my 'opinion' on some particular notion they have, and they provide so little meaningful personal information in their request that it is obvious that they have already made up their minds, but just want to tag someone else with the decision.  It if wins, they are a genius, if it is wrong, they ought not to have listened to that other guy.

And while I have occasionally done it, I no longer like to even disclose what specific positions I may be holding because I do not wish people to 'follow' my own investing or trading, even at a distance.  That is no way to do it.  My circumstances and objectives may be entirely inappropriate for yours.

Leverage, risk and portfolio theory.  If you do not understand them, you ought not to be investing on your own.  And in general I think that in this market no amateurs should be actively trading because the probability that they will lose money is exceptionally high for the reasons I have stated many times.