22 June 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Played Like a Bouzouki

We have a deal! 

No really. This time we do have a deal.  Uh, we think.
And the cry went forth, and Very Serious People breathed a sigh of relief, the Greek people continued to take their euros out of the banks, and the markets rallied.   Again.
In the usual opera buffo, the Greeks accidentally sent the wrong terms last night.   And then sent the correct terms this morning, too late for the powers that be to adequately consider them.  But just in time for the markets to open and for the Western world to celebrate.
In the terms it appears that Syriza has put a toe over its 'red line,' causing some to bubble over with calls of premature capitulation.  Huzzah! 
It is hard to handicap this kind of game, when you really do not understand the objectives and the nature of it, and use all the wrong sources to discover what is really happening.
More likely they disappointed first, brought the markets and the worried ministers to the brink, again, and then gave them terms that were not satisfactory, but much harder to dismiss.

Sometimes their strength is their weakness, and your weakness is your strength, if you know how to play the game.
Keep in mind that there is no 'deal' yet, but Greece is wearing down the opposition and fraying their nerves fairly well.  And under duress they may take a deal, get their house in order as best they can, but in the Greek manner, continue the fight from the hills and the islands.
After all, when is a default not a default?   If it is delayed a year, involving a larger amount?  Believe me when I say that this dance is still in early days, and the band is still getting warmed up.
Life is not so boring these days.  Some day I would like to share some ouzo or grappe with these fellows and have a good talk, share some war stories.  High stake negotiations are always interesting.
And in their love of life, Greece is teaching northern Europe to dance.  I am sure that Germany would like to take off their suitcoats and learn.  But not everyone can yet hear the tune clearly.
Have a pleasant evening.