29 July 2015
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Failure to Achieve Liftoff, GDP Tomorrow
There was intraday commentary about the FOMC statement here.
Even though The Recovery does not warrant it, I am still of the same mind I have been, that the Fed will raise 25 basis points in September unless the wheels are falling off the global financial system and/or the economy. It is purely an inward-looking policy thing, and they are falling all over themselves to prepare the markets and to justify their actions.
The Fed wants to get off the zero bound so they have room to maneuver when the next financial crisis comes, most likely from the bursting of their latest financial assets bubble. The Fed is a servant to the Banking system.
The SP managed to gain some ground after an initial flip flop. I was disappointed that a purchase of some powered up VIX did not get filled at the announcement when they smacked VIX lower to clear the stops and then ran it the other way. You have to be pretty aggressive to get past the HFT spoofing and front running at times like these. It never really did get back to a cheap buy.
Let's see how the Advance GDP number for Q2 looks tomorrow.
This is an artificial market, so 'policy considerations' and private greed will most likely continue to trump any reasonable estimation of 'investment' and 'price discovery.'
Have a pleasant evening.
Posted by Jesse at 4:47 PM