24 August 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Dazed and Confused By Financial Gimmickry

The US equity markets took a swan dive on the open, with a first hour of trading dominated by flash crashes and algo-driven volatility.

As noted previously, the composition of these markets is very fragile, and open to a cascading waterfall decline.  We can lay the responsibility for this right on the shoulders of the Fed, the regulators, the exchanges, with some help from a servile media.

And this is far from over.  The worst thing we can see now is a sharp rally back up with no change in the attitudes and connections to the real economy.

The dip was bought in part on a message from AAPL's Tim Cook to CNBC's James Cramer assuring him that their sales are proceeding briskly in China.

When Mr. Cramer shared this message online it helped to trigger a reversal in Apple which in turned triggered a rally off the bottom that lasted into the European close. Alas that was not to last, and stocks slumped anew as the dip buyers were suckered in, and stocks continued to slump into the close, albeit not at the lows of the opening bloodbath.

Today's commentary on the financial networks was just-- ridiculous.  They were pounding the table to buy the dip.   They were incredulous that the stockmarket could decline.  They were frightened and yet defiant.  And most of what they had to say was useless.

I am not sure we saw an actual capitulation today.  I have seen capitulations in selling, and this one did not quite feel right.  I think a good part of it is that these markets are dominated by computers, and much of the trading is not human, but algo-driven.  The first hour seemed more like a big flash crash than real selling.   And the rally back had a similar character.

We now are in the solid correction phase. I have noted the percentages on both of the charts below.  Both the SP 500 and the NDX futures tagged mid teen declines off the highs as they both fell out of their symmetrical triangle topping patterns.

Let's see how China does overnight.  This seems to be the big driver.  This notion of American exceptionalism and its singularly robust economy is so much baloney.

Have a pleasant evening.