17 March 2020

Stocks and Precious Metals Choice - Economic Cargo Cults - Quad Witching Stock Option Expiration


"Whenever you pray, forgive if you have anything against someone else, so that your Father in heaven may thereby forgive you."

Mark 11:25


"When we forgive, we do not simply put up with the person’s hurtful behavior, blame ourselves for the person’s behavior, pretend that we weren’t hurt, or say the person didn’t mean to hurt us.  Instead, we acknowledge that we are all imperfect humans.

 Forgiveness is a moral decision to see the other person’s worth, let go of anger, and offer compassion, benevolence, and love toward the offender."

Robert D. Enright, Forgiveness Is a Choice


"And forgive us the debts of our sins, as we forgive those who have sinned against us."

Matthew 6:12

Repentance means seeing and being sorry for our own mistakes, sins, and foolishness.   It must come first.  Perfect people can never forgive others, or accept themselves as they are, only some distorted version.

This is why God does not forgive us unless we can forgive others.   Not to punish us.  It is for our sake, not His.  If we are unable to forgive others, we are dead to love.  He gives us the great courtesy of freedom of will, and grants us our refusal even for what is for our own good.

Forgiving others is hard.  That is why we were given such an extravagant example of sacrifice and forgiveness for others.  Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do.

For God so loved the world.

Stocks bounced today, off short term oversold conditions that were almost incredible.

Gold and the Dollar also bounced today, and the VIX remains in a very high risk level.

To say that the markets remain fragile would be an understatement.

There are a number of stimulus plans and initiatives being considered, now that a few of the Congressional knuckle-draggers have shambled back to their corporatist compounds.

This is a demand shock.

It is not a run-of-the-mill recession in the business cycle. It is more like a market crash due to some global event like a world war that is only loosely under our control.

The focus of the administration and the financial powers should be to soften the blow to the consumer, and keep the spark of demand alive.  And once the medical crisis has eased, to engage in serious stimulation to bring back the recovery.

But there are many powerful constituencies lining up for bailouts and handouts.  In the last crisis the  consumer was given the short end of the stick as the moneyed interests settled down at the public trough.

And they are lining up already to do it again.   The privileged become hysterical when they see the status quo in peril.

As a remined, this Friday will be a stock market quad witching option expiration.

Do I think the stock market has bottomed?   No.  Not yet.

We have not seen the kind of shattering drop after a brief 'relief rally' that is generally multi-day.

Governor Cuomo today said that the peak of the virus will not be seen in New York for 45 days.  That might be optimistic, depending on the actions that are taken.

The usual suspect were back to their old antics pretty shamelessly today.  And I have been surprised to see some of the old names from crashes past coming on to once again render their foul nostrums.

They will never learn.  The question is, will we?

Have a pleasant evening.