GDP Deflator at a Five Decades Low While Income Inequality Is at Record Highs

From this chart sent out this morning by David Rosenberg, we can see that the GDP deflator is at a five decades low.

I tend to believe that the modifications to the inflation measures, including the deflator, that have accumulated by the federal bureaucracy over the past ten years are greatly understating the actual inflation in the economy.

There are very positive benefits for the government to do this. The lower the deflator, the better and higher the real GDP figures will appear. And a low measure of official inflation reduces increases in payments in Social Security and other programs with Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA), including official debt payments on the bonds and the TIPS.



Gold gives the lie to this, which is why it is so hated by financial engineers and statists.

On the other hand, the inequality of income distribution in the US is at level not seen since the 1920's.



There is some good reason to think that government tax and fiscal policies, as well as the monopolistic makeup and subsidized growth of the Banking sector facilitates this wealth transfer and concentration, which has a highly negative impact on real economic growth.

There will be a change, and the trends will be reversed. How they are reversed and what changes will accompany those reversals are very much open to debate, and divergent historical examples. But these changes almost invariably involve a shift from individualism to statism.

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable."

John F. Kennedy

Change will come if the system remains as unsustainable as it is now. And what gives me a somewhat pessimistic view is that people never seem to learn the lessons of history.

A Summary of the Goldman Sachs Fraud Case, and the Downfall of Icons

"Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu' il a été proprement fait."

(The secret of great returns which are difficult to explain is a crime that has not yet been discovered because it has been carefully executed."

Honoré de Balzac, Pere Goriot

There is quite a bit of spin surrounding the Goldman Sachs deal. The best debunking of the spin around the nature and quality of the SEC's case was written by Barry Ritholz.

One of the best summaries of what the deal actually encompassed is excerpted below by Rolling Stone journalist Matt Taibbi.

"Here's the Cliffs Notes version of the scandal: Back in 2007, Harvard-educated hedge-fund whiz John Paulson (no relation to then-Treasury secretary and former Goldman chief Hank Paulson) smartly decided the housing boom was a mirage. So he asked Goldman to put together a multibillion-dollar basket of crappy subprime investments that he could bet against. The bank gladly complied, taking a $15 million fee to do the deal and letting Paulson choose some of the toxic mortgages in the portfolio, which would come to be called Abacus.

What Paulson jammed into Abacus was mortgages lent to borrowers with low credit ratings, and mortgages from states like Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California that had recently seen wild home-price spikes. In metaphorical terms, Paulson was choosing, as sexual partners for future visitors to the Goldman bordello, a gang of IV drug users, Haitians and hemophiliacs, then buying life-insurance policies on the whole orgy. Goldman then turned around and sold this poisonous stuff to its customers as good, healthy investments.

Where Goldman broke the rules, according to the SEC, was in failing to disclose to its customers – in particular a German bank called IKB and a Dutch bank called ABN-AMRO – the full nature of Paulson's involvement with the deal. Neither investor knew that the portfolio they were buying into had essentially been put together by a financial arsonist who was rooting for it all to blow up.

Goldman even kept its own collateral manager – a well-known and respectable company called ACA – in the dark. The bank hired the firm to approve the bad mortgages being selected by Paulson, but never bothered to tell ACA that Paulson was actually betting against the deal. ACA thought Paulson was long, when actually he was short. That led to the awful comedy of ACA staffers holding meeting after meeting with Goldman and Paulson, and continually coming away confused as to why their supposedly canny financial partners kept kicking any decent mortgage out of the deal. In one ACA internal e-mail, the company wonders aloud why Paulson excluded mortgages issued by Wells Fargo – a bank that traditionally created high-quality mortgages. "Did [they] give a reason why they kicked out all the Wells deals?" the quizzical e-mail reads."

Matt Taibbi, The Feds Vs. Goldman

This is fraud, pure and simple. Goldman did not stand by and allow ACA to make its picks. Goldman and Paulson aggressively influenced the selection process, vetoing the good mortgages, and manipulating ACA, setting them up to be the fall guy in what is clearly a premeditated fraud.

The final defense being offered, after the smokescreens and misstatements of what happened have been pulled away, is that there can be no fraud when you are selling to a 'qualified investor' and making a market.

Goldman was not making a market. They were actively creating inherently dangerous products, and then recommending and selling them to their customers, qualified investors or not. It was fraud, and Goldman is a disreputable firm, that has been shown to engage in fraud across many markets and countries and venues. This particular scam with ACA is small change compared to the setting up of AIG, and the foul bailout ripped from the public with the collusion of the NY Fed.

Anyone who looked at their trading results, many standard deviations out of the norm, would have to know that there was some sort of fraud and market manipulation involved. It is the Bernie Madoff syndrome; the professionals all knew he was cheating somehow, but were more than willing to go along with it and turn a blind eye while it was to their advantage. And Goldman had the politicians in their pocket, and so they were powerful, not to be crossed. Almost as powerfully connected as the Fed's house bank, J. P. Morgan.

Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger have come out recently in defense of Goldman, attempting to paint this fraud as the work of a single rogue trader. That of course is a part of the spin, the carefully thought out and premeditated fraud which had ACA and then Fabrice Tourree as the designated scapegoats.

Warren holds quite a bit of Goldman Sachs stock. And all he and Charlie have shown is that once you strip away the trappings and the masks, the ornamentation and the legend, what you are left with is someone who is willing to lie down with pigs when the money is right. So the question is not what kind of man Warren Buffet is, but rather, what is his price.

When the tide goes out, we indeed see who is naked, and who is not. And it is not a pretty picture.

Times Square NYC Evacuated as Failed Car Bomb Discovered

American News sources are reporting that an abandoned automobile left in Times Square at 7th Ave. and West 44th St. has been discovered to have false license plates, and to contain propane tanks, gasoline, burned wiring, and black powder.

Witnesses report a flash from the back of a Nissan SUV, and smoke coming from the back of the vehicle. Police originally responded to reports of a car fire.

Car Bomb Scares Times Square - Washington Post

Breaking News - Times Square Evacuated- NY Times Online....

Retraining and Rehabilitation of Financial Sector Employees May Be a Daunting Task

Prospero: Mark but the badges of these men, my lords,
Then say if they be true...
These three have robb'd me, and this demi-devil—
For he's a bastard one, had plotted with them
To take my life. Two of these fellows you
Must know and own; this thing of darkness I
Acknowledge mine.

Caliban: I shall be pinch'd to death.

The Tempest Act 5, scene 1

"Even knaves may be made good for something."

Jean-Jacques Rousseau

According to the email below there is some concern among employees in the financial services sector about their future employment prospects if reform legislation should be enacted, and some tentative, but perhaps unrealistic plans, of coping with it if it happens are expressed.

I can always use a little help around the kitchen and the yard, cleaning up and minor repairs, and I would gladly pay a fair wage based on effort, moderated by experience and capability. My son and helper is leaving for university soon to begin his studies in engineering, which is the manipulation of real things for practical purposes with benefit to the customer. So it might be unfamiliar to you. And I am not getting any younger.

By the way, since most of the suburban teaching jobs are filled, have you considered going back to school to learn to be a Registered Nurse? There will be plenty of openings in nursing homes and hospices, and your selfless dedication to hard and sometimes distasteful work will be most useful and appreciated.

I suspect there will be a lot of cheap labor available from dislocated FIRE sector workers in the years to come, as well as from those serving out community service judgements. At least the highways will be cleaned of litter. Perhaps exposure to the common people and honest labor will do them some good.

I am a little concerned that this type of person probably has little or no practical skills, but they do claim to bring high energy and a willing spirit, so it could be put to work on the cleaning up of America and Europe, and the rebuilding of their infrastructure. They make themselves sound like teachers, firefighters, policemen, or even soldiers, but there are dimensions of duty and honor and self-sacrifice and service to others in those callings far beyond any monetary recompense of which they probably have little experience or even a vaguely realistic expectation.

His or her description of what it is like to teach elementary school is good for a laugh. Someone is in for a rude awakening.

All things considered, we can surmise that there is no excess of common sense in their portfolio, or an ability to listen well and learn about things which they think they know, but really do not understand at all. That speaks to the main question which is, 'are they educable' or will they be prone to recidivism?

I find it hard to believe, however, that this letter is anything but a hoax. But considering the imputed source of these sentiments is the "derivative of a human being," it could be genuine. I am a bit undecided, but will allow for it.

So grab a pair of gloves, my boy, and I will be glad to teach you how to prune a tree and clear some brush. But although you might be willing to do it more cheaply, don't expect to displace the little girls of their job of walking the dog to earn money to purchase new dollies. They can be more ruthless and determined than the most hardened union boss. And the nine year old tells me she is still the strongest person in her class, but boasts of it less of late, owing to a nascent attraction to a classmate known only as 'Will.' But you might be able to help them with the clean up.

And if you should happen to play any card or board games with them, I warn you beforehand, they cheat, obviously, clumsily and shamelessly, to win, with a somewhat cavalier regard for the written rules. Ah, but I forget, that has long been your raison d'etre, your hallmark, and a particular area of specialization and expertise.

Time, life and a benevolent and orderly society tend to teach children to be better, to be human, essere umano. But apparently it does not always at first succeed, and must try, try again.

The Reformed Broker
An Email Purported to be Making the Rounds of Wall Street

"We are Wall Street. It's our job to make money. Whether it's a commodity, stock, bond, or some hypothetical piece of fake paper, it doesn't matter. We would trade baseball cards if it were profitable. I didn't hear America complaining when the market was roaring to 14,000 and everyone's 401k doubled every 3 years. Just like gambling, its not a problem until you lose. I've never heard of anyone going to Gamblers Anonymous because they won too much in Vegas.

Well now the market crapped out, & even though it has come back somewhat, the government and the average Joes are still looking for a scapegoat. God knows there has to be one for everything. Well, here we are.

Go ahead and continue to take us down, but you're only going to hurt yourselves. What's going to happen when we can't find jobs on the Street anymore? Guess what: We're going to take yours. We get up at 5am & work till 10pm or later. We're used to not getting up to pee when we have a position. We don't take an hour or more for a lunch break. We don't demand a union. We don't retire at 50 with a pension. We eat what we kill, and when the only thing left to eat is on your dinner plates, we'll eat that.

For years teachers and other unionized labor have had us fooled. We were too busy working to notice. Do you really think that we are incapable of teaching 3rd graders and doing landscaping? We're going to take your cushy jobs with tenure and 4 months off a year and whine just like you that we are so-o-o-o underpaid for building the youth of America. Say goodbye to your overtime and double time and a half. I'll be hitting grounders to the high school baseball team for $5k extra a summer, thank you very much. (Note: How many moons are there on this guy's planet?)

So now that we're going to be making $85k a year without upside, Joe Mainstreet is going to have his revenge, right? Wrong! Guess what: we're going to stop buying the new 80k car, we aren't going to leave the 35 percent tip at our business dinners anymore. No more free rides on our backs. We're going to landscape our own back yards, wash our cars with a garden hose in our driveways. Our money was your money. You spent it. When our money dries up, so does yours.

The difference is, you lived off of it, we rejoiced in it. The Obama administration and the Democratic National Committee might get their way and knock us off the top of the pyramid, but it's really going to hurt like hell for them when our fat a**es land directly on the middle class of America and knock them to the bottom. (I would pay to watch that. There are a lot of former customers named 'Bubba' who would like to make your acquaintance.)

We aren't dinosaurs. We are smarter and more vicious than that, and we are going to survive. The question is, now that Obama & his administration are making Joe Mainstreet our food supply…will he? and will they?"