28 July 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bounce

 
US equities had a nice bounce today, especially the SP 500, as compared to the tech heavy NDX.
 
The next two moves will tell us quite a bit more about this.   And especially the NDX which had led the way higher in the last rally which recently crested with the IPO of Paypal.
 
You have to be agile if you wish to play the wash-rinse game.  I do not recommend it.  The system is set up to wear you down with transactional friction from spreads and fees.
 
Have a pleasant evening.
 
 



 

27 July 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Miner Miner

 
There is a chart of the GDX relative to the Price of Gold.  This is why some will say that the miners are 'weak relative to the price of the metal.'  And they are.  They can get even cheaper, and the underlying metal can also get 'cheaper.'  That does not mean that they will.

Sentiment is obviously at a negative extreme, and some of the chortling from the opinion vendors is disheartening to those who take that sort of thing seriously.  But it is what it is, and we must play the cards as they fall.

Let's see how gold can trade through the advance GDP number this week and the Non-Farm Payrolls report next week.

I am becoming more aware of the mining sector at this point IF I decide to play a bounce in the precious metals and IF I do not think that the equity market will actually crash, rather than swing back and forth in the jigging for spec fishes that the HFT insiders are wont to do these days.

I have not owned a mining stock in recent memory except as a trade.  I am now getting more serious about that sort of thing, with the appropriate caution about getting in too early.  I would rather miss the first ten percent of a real rally than come in too early and try to catch 'the bottom.'
 
The 'deliverable' or registered gold at the Comex has fallen to a surprisingly low level of 378,146 ounces.  This would be shocking in a honest market given the leverage involved.  But since we are dealing with The Bucket Shop it just bears watching.

Have a pleasant evening.
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Rinse-a-Matic


Stocks in the US continued to slide, in sympathy with China and a generally poor outlook for the world of real productivity and wealth.

And in large part this is the rinse cycle of a wash-rinse stock market operation conducted by insiders that took US equity prices up to unsustainable levels in the first place.

It looks like our cynical outlook just after Wall Street squeezed out the Paypal IPO was on the money. 

No credit really, given the screaming non-confirmation out of anything except for a very narrow rally in a few tech name.   If your favorite purveyor of market analysis was not saying 'get out for now' you may wish to find a new one.

So as everyone seems to wish to say, 'what next?'

Now we see what happens in China, and what sort of support that US stocks can find as they approach the lower bounds of the current trend channels, wash and rinse-wise.

We will take a peek at the Advanced GDP number for second quarter and that might mean something IF China can stabilize and Greece does not blow up again, which it very well may.

Have a pleasant evening.

 
 
 

Providence Is the Hidden Hand of God


"Wonderful providence indeed which is so silent, yet so efficacious, so constant, so unerring. This is what baffles the power of Satan. He cannot discern the Hand of God in what goes on; and though he would fain meet it and encounter it, in his mad and blasphemous rebellion against heaven, he cannot find it.

Crafty and penetrating as he is, yet his thousand eyes and his many instruments avail him nothing against the majestic serene silence, the holy imperturbable calm which reigns through the providences of God. Crafty and experienced as he is, he appears like a child or a fool, like one made sport of, whose daily bread is but failure and mockery, before the deep and secret wisdom of the Divine Counsels.

He makes a guess here, or does a bold act there, but all in the dark. He knew not of Gabriel's coming, and the miraculous conception of the Virgin, or what was meant by that Holy Thing which was to be born, being called the Son of God. He tried to kill him, and he made martyrs of the innocent children; he tempted the Lord of all with hunger and with ambitious prospects; he sifted the Apostles, and got none but one who already bore his own name, and had been already given over as a devil.

He brought into the world the very salvation which he feared and hated. He accomplished the Atonement of that world, whose misery he was plotting. Wonderfully silent, yet resistless course of God's providence!  'Verily, Thou art a God that hidest Thyself, O God of Israel, the Saviour;' and if even devils, sagacious as they are, spirits by nature and experienced in evil, cannot detect His hand, while He works, how can we hope to see it except by that way which the devils cannot take, by loving faith?"

John Henry Newman, PS 17

Do not despair in not understanding all and fully, for this is our nature and necessity.  Be serene in having the grace to know the next step, but none further.  For this is a part of our protection against the forces of the evil of this world.

We surely and clearly know what to do, having been told plainly and many times by His messengers and the promptings of our conscience. We are to love the Lord our God, with our whole hearts, our whole minds, our whole soul, and our whole strength, and our neighbors as ourselves.  This is the heart of the law, and the rule of our warfare.

The mystery of Providence is a grace that gives those who accept it a power that is incomprehensible to the calculating mind of evil, that knows only what it can see and measure, according to its own pride and willfulness. 

And it confounds the ever-fading powers of the restless servants of this world and their wickedness in high places.  That is the love of God, which is inexplicable and cannot be seen, except in cherished glimpses and with a limited understanding, by those who are already His through their continuing faithfulness.  He speaks to them in their hearts, if they will but listen.

This is no complacency, no retreat from the world, no quiet acceptance of evil but a call to action.  We are directed not to linger, and to watch for more signs and wonders, gifts and consolations, not an endless menu of comforts so that we may ride comfortably to heaven, but to bear up with what we have been given and to do His work, but with love. 

We are called to a love which is transformative when it is living for others, but a vain preoccupation and a kind of twilight of lingering misery when it is not.  His call occurs, but we must rise and follow.

His yoke, though gentle, both constrains our natures and leads us through periods of dryness and confusion, which are often put most heavily on those called to lead.  And as we may need them, unexpectedly, there are the consolations, His gentle mercies.

We will contemplate the face of God in the next world, but in this, we are called to action and His work.   Nothing is wasted in God's economy.   He knows what He is about.