30 November 2016

Charts at the Market Close on 'Hump Day' - Don't Worry Baby

"Sanders laid out the dilemma facing the Democratic Party. The Democrats must find their way back to a connection with ordinary people, and this will require a complete change in the way they do business. He's convinced that the huge expenditure of time and mental effort the Democrats put in to raise more than $1 billion for the Clinton campaign in the past year ended up having enormous invisible costs...

'I've seen it for years. I've seen a media, which has basically ignored the declining middle class, that doesn't talk about poverty at all, and has no sense of what is going on in the minds of millions of ordinary Americans. They live in a bubble, talk about their world, worry about who's going to be running 18 years from now for office. Meanwhile, people can't feed their kids. That's something I knew.

Talking about those issues, seeing that they resonated, that did not surprise me. How quickly they resonated did surprise me. How weak the Democratic establishment was, and how removed they were from the needs of ordinary people, that also surprised me.'"

Matt Taibbi, Bernie Sanders On Where We Go From Here

"There are two kinds of truth: the truth that lights the way and the truth that warms the heart. The first of these is science, and the second is art. Neither is independent of the other or more important than the other. Without art science would be as useless as a pair of high forceps in the hands of a plumber. Without science art would become a crude mess of folklore and emotional quackery. The truth of art keeps science from becoming inhuman, and the truth of science keeps art from becoming ridiculous."

Raymond Chandler

The economic news came in 'better than expected' this morning with Chicago PMI and the ADP Employment change beating estimates in particular.

The Dollar was stronger, and thereby we had some down moves in the precious metals priced in dollars.  This does not always happen, but depends upon the reason for which the dollar is stronger.

The warehouses were boring as usual.  I posted the first December delivery report last night which shows that we will likely see a 'livelier' month than we have had in November.

Non-Farm Payrolls looms on Friday, but do not forget about the Italian referendum on the weekend.

Trump is filling out his initial cabinet appointments.   It so far looks like he is not draining the swamp, but rather changing out one set of alligators for another.

And then there is the upcoming FOMC meeting in which one might be stunned if the Fed does nothing again.  Not necessarily anything useful or significant, but they will likely do something.

Have a pleasant evening.

29 November 2016

And the December Gold and Silver Contract 'Deliveries' Begin

For the first day of December, 493,800 ounces of gold have been taken for delivery at 1187.50.  This represents a nominal first day delivery value of $586,387,500.

The 'big customer' at Goldman and the house account at Macquarie continue to disgorge their gold positions, in size, through the delivery process.

The buyers of these positions are the house accounts at HSBC, Nova Scotia, and JP Morgan, in addition to the big 'customer' at Morgan.

As for silver, the big deliverers of the December contract positions were customers at Goldman and Intl FCStone, and a smaller amount from the house account at Nova Scotia.

The big takers of December silver were the house accounts at Macquarie and JP Morgan.

As you may recall, JP Morgan is holding the biggest hoard of silver on the Comex in its warehouses, with over 81 million of the almost 179 million ounces of silver on deposit.

Still, if history is any indicator, these gold deliveries are merely the pushing of paper claims for a smaller percentage of physical silver around the plate, with little physical metal actually going anywhere.

Not so for silver, which continues to see large inflows and outflows of physical metal, especially in the warehouses of wholesaler CNT.

Charts at the Market Close On a Rainy Tuesday

"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough."

Franklin D. Roosevelt

3Q came in 'better than expected' this morning, but that was not enough to keep the fire lit under equities after this post-election euphoria.

Gold was under a little pressure and silver less so, as November winds down and we enter the more important trading contract of December.

As you may recall, my operating theory has been that the 'free float' of physical gold available to fulfill physical delivery in the markets of Asia has been diminishing, to the point now that the card sharps of the West are concerned a bit about the calling in of their monumental paper leverage.

I had thought the denouement would have occurred during this Summer, but some stores of physical gold were found in the hands of some unfortunate nations, and that has served to keep the game going.

But as the last calculation of the free float showed, the winding down continues, slowly but surely.  All pools and schemes and frauds, if you will, that run against reason and free choices of the markets run down and fall apart eventually, worn out by the artificiality and the energy required to sustain them.

As the old saying goes, 'the bigger they come, the harder they fall.'

Non-Farm Payrolls later this week.

It was very rainy here day, pouring quite steadily for the most part.  I had to take the queen to the hospital for some check ups and blood work.  I could not help but wonder how a little adverse weather, like rain or snow, seems to bring out a kind of mindless aggression in some drivers and a carefulness almost to a fault in others.

We can be like that with words as well.  I see people saying things some times that are almost incredible, and you cannot imagine them saying that sort of thing if they were there in person, or at least for most of them.

As adversity or some obstacles or disappointments frustrate us, we can become mindlessly aggressive and reckless with our words, and our actions, especially when we have the cover of anonymity, of an electronic vehicle, as people do with automobiles or ideologies or a devotion to some pet theory.

They use them as rationales to behave- inhumanly.   Certain in ways that they would not ordinarily even consider, and would be embarrassed if it were pointed out to them.  They forget themselves.

We all have this tendency, to get caught up in the moment.  Let us remember who we are at all times, and whom we serve.  And when such injustice is done to us, that we should forgive it, and understand from whence it comes.  And regret our own culpability in such bad examples, and try to do them no more.

Yes, there is violence and injustice in the world. There always has been. We may have been on the receiving end of it. Cruelty and aggressive anger is most often a sign of fear or weakness or a harsh upbringing with an abusive parent. And it breeds nothing good, only more of the same.

So let it end with us.

One does not have to be cruel or rude to be tough, to be a pillar of support to those whom he loves.

Have a pleasant evening.

28 November 2016

Charts for a Quiet Post Holiday Monday - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday - It's Back

The markets were quiet today, and perhaps a bit more thoughtful as they gave back some of the recent outsized gains in some areas, and declines in others.

Gold gained more than silver which was a bit odd. Yes, it was a risk re-assessment sort of a day, but in London some of the industrial metals like lead and zinc had done quite well.

This market is likely to be more data and less euphoria driven over the next few weeks, as we have the Non-Farm Payrolls along with a few other goodies like the second estimate of Q3 GDP and the ISM Index.

This coming weekend there will be a referendum on the constitution in Italy that may take on a Brexit-like significance.  We'll have to keep an eye on that one.

The Fed will be getting its last chance for this year to raise rates by 25 to 50 basis points in December.  I doubt they will be deterred by anything short of shockingly bad economic news.

And finally, that back breaker of utopian monetary theories, the Zimbabwe Dollar, is making a post hyper-inflationary comeback.  They ought to have listened to Tim Allen and given their monetary policies more power.

Yeah, India's Modi knows what we're talking about—  a little monetary wet work to flush out the old fiatscos and take a strong grip on the value of your currency by the vulnerable parts.

Have a pleasant evening.

27 November 2016

The Incredible Lightness of Thinking In the Liberal Professional Class and the Ascended Masters of Hypocrisy

"Listening to the leading figures of the Democratic party establishment, however, you’d never know it. Cool contentment is the governing emotion in these circles. What they have in mind for 2016 is what we might call a campaign of militant complacency. They are dissociated from the mood of the nation, and they do not care...

What our modernized liberal leaders offer is not confrontation [with corporate corruption] but a kind of therapy for those flattened by the free-market hurricane: they counsel us to accept the inevitability of the situation."

Thomas Frank

"Too many of America's elites-among the super-rich, the CEOs, and many of my colleagues in academia-have abandoned a commitment to social responsibility.  They chase wealth and power, the rest of society be damned."

Jeffrey Sachs

"This elite-generated social control maintains the status quo because the status quo benefits and validates those who created and sit atop it.  People rise to prominence when they parrot the orthodoxy rather than critically analyze it. Intellectual regurgitation is prized over independent thought. Real change in politics or society cannot occur under the orthodoxy because if it did, it would threaten the legitimacy of the professional class and all of the systems that helped them achieve their status.

Kristine Mattis, The Cult of the Professional Class

The continuing reaction of the liberal elite to the repudiation of the Democratic establishment by their traditional constituencies of the young and working people is a wonder to behold.  They thrash back and forth between a denial of their failure, and disgust at everyone else they can blame for it.

cf Paul Krugman, The Populism Perplex.

It could not possibly be because of anything they might have done or failed to do.   And so they are caught in a credibility trap.

It is frustrating because they do not know how to extract themselves from it, admit their errors and reform the system, without undermining the very assumptions that entitle them, in their own minds at least, to rule as the highly honored insiders, the elect of professional accomplishment.  

Caution on language.

26 November 2016

History Lesson

Tsar Nicholas II:   I know what will make them happy. They're children, and they need a Tsar!  They need tradition.  Not this!  They're the victims of agitators.  A Duma would make them bewildered and discontented.  And don't tell me about London and Berlin. God save us from the mess they're in!

Count Witte:   I see. So they talk, pray, march, plead, petition and what do they get? Cossacks, prison, flogging, police, spies, and now, after today, they will be shot.

Is this God's will?  Are these His methods?  Make war on your own people?   How long do you think they're going to stand there and let you shoot them?  YOU ask ME who's responsible?  YOU ask?

Tsar Nicholas II:   The English have a parliament.   Our British cousins gave their rights away.   The Hapsburgs, and the Hoehenzollerns too.  The Romanovs will not. What I was given, I will give my son.

"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich."

John Kenneth Galbraith

25 November 2016

Charts at Thanksgiving Week's End - Nun danket alle Gott

Thank you, Lord, from the bottom of my heart, for another year with my family and friends, and especially with she-who-must-be-obeyed.

Let them all be properly loved and treasured throughout the year, as your most precious gifts, as one your many tender mercies, with which you grace our daily lives.

Make our lives new, O Lord, and take the blindness of pride and foolish distractions from our eyes.

23 November 2016

Menus - Happy Thanksgiving!

"We pray for the big things, and forget to give thanks for the ordinary, small, and yet really not so small, blessings.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Dollar strength has the metals slumping. A nice parting shot for the December options expiration.

The queen has given me my marching orders, and there are many things to be done.

Shopping, cooking, counting blessings.

So I will have at it now, and wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving!

I may just post charts later today after the close if something notable happens, besides the metals getting pounded lower in light pre-holiday trading.

As you know the US markets will be closed tomorrow, and opened in very light holiday trading on Friday that is not really worth watching 'unless something happens.'

Otherwise, I will see you on Monday.
"And now, bless the God of all,
who has done wondrous things here on earth;
Who fosters people’s growth from their mother’s womb,
and would fashion them according to his will.
May he grant you joy of heart,
and may peace abide among you."

Thank you, Lord, from the bottom of my heart, for another year with my family and friends, and especially with she-who-must-be-obeyed, and let them be treasured as your most precious gifts, one your many tender mercies.

Windsor Hotel, St. Paul, Minnesota, 1883

Plaza Hotel NYC 1899

Gettysburg Hotel, Gettysburg, Pennsylvania 1909

22 November 2016

David Cay Johnston: The Making of Donald Trump

“The narcissist devours people, consumes their output, and casts the empty, writhing shells aside.”

Sam Vaknin

This piece by David Cay Johnston below is a reprise of a video posted here on 25 September 2016

And just to keep the disappointment and revulsion with the two main American political parties balanced, here is a scathing video of Jimmy Dore On Obama's Real Legacy (caution language).

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex Option Expiration - Tableau Sans Vie

"The Unspeakable—  

It is the void that contradicts everything that is spoken even before the words are said; the void that gets into the language of public and official declarations at the very moment when they are pronounced, and makes them ring dead with the hollowness of the abyss.

It is the emptiness of the end.   It is the void out of which Eichmann drew the punctilious exactitude of his obedience.

You are in no position to issue commands, but you can speak words of hope.  

Shall this be the substance of your message?   Be human in this most inhuman of ages; guard the image of man,  for it is the image of God."

Thomas Merton

Gold and silver largely marked time today on the December option expiration for precious metals on the Comex.

There was nothing of importance in the delivery reports, and little to note in warehouse movements.

The Comex is too often like a tableau sans vie.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - New Highs On Light Volumes

That could be the epitaph of our age— the appearance of new highs, but on ephemerally light volumes, lacking in both effect and substance.

Have a pleasant evening.

21 November 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Risk On Trump

After the bell there was a magnitude 6.9 earthquake off the cost of Fukushima prefecture, about 160 miles from Tokyo .  A tsunami warning has been issued.

I hope that all of you in the affected areas will be listening to instructions carefully.  I will be remembering you all in my prayers, as I do for all readers of Le Cafe each week, without fail, in addition to all the special intentions of my correspondents and their families.

We had the first snowfall of the season this weekend past.  It was quite the surprise to see an inch of snow on the ground in the early morning after heavy rains the night before.  I am glad I am keeping up with the yardwork.   Some places north of here in the higher elevations had six inches of snow.

Winter is coming.

Gold and silver were largely marking time today ahead of the Comex precious metals option expiration tomorrow in this holiday-shortened week.

The dollar was not quite as exuberant today as it has recently been.  This is understandable because it has come very far in a short period of time off the US election results.

We picked up a new car on Saturday, and so far it seems quite nice.   We chose a Subaru Forester.  We took a little drive in it today to the doctor's office, and took a swing back through the nearby 'horse country' to drive past the mighty Trump National Golf Course in Bedminster which I had never seen before.

My father-in-law was an avid golfer, and when he visited us I sometimes took him to see the USGA golf headquarters and museum in the next town over in Far Hills, NJ.  There are collections and memorabilia on display which are substantial and significant.

There is also the official testing facility for balls and clubs which is fascinating.  I don't know if the test lab is still open to the public.  I am not a golfer but I liked to take the visiting relatives to see it.

The association is housed in what had been the private residence of Averell Harriman, of Brown Brothers Harriman.  Some of the mansions around the Somerset Hills are fairly impressive, both old and new.  The higher elevations provided cooler weather in Summer, with easy access by train to NYC.

When we first moved here the train line to NYC was still running the DC electric trains that Edison had created, with old time wicker seats and big wooden ceiling fans.   The Gladstone line was the last leg of NJ Transit to get upgraded to AC current service and modern cars.  But that was long ago.

Speaking of which, turkeys are certainly in vogue this week.  We picked ours up for .99 per pound for a fresh Butterball turkey at Costco.  I am sure it will do the job for our family dinner this Thursday.

Let's see how gold and silver do into the long holiday weekend, with the option expiration under their belts after tomorrow.

The delivery report for gold showed another big customer disgorgement, but otherwise all was quiet.

Have a pleasant evening.