30 November 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A World Starved For the Truth - Misdirections

"God is not waiting around to get even with people for things that they have done fifteen years before. God is gentle and humble of heart; unconditionally good and loving. Therefore we do not need to cower and grovel before God’s will. We need to trust in it; trust in its awesome beauty, its unconditional power to bring goodness out of seeming limitless diversity of so many people’s lives; trust in the affection that the Hebrew prophets termed hesed we emet—  a parent’s love for a child.”

Robert J. Spitzer

"And because of the abundance of wickedness, the love of many will grow cold."

Matthew 24:12

"Caesar was swimming in blood.   Rome and the whole pagan world was mad.   But those who had had enough of transgression and madness, those who were trampled upon, those whose lives were misery and oppression, all the weighed down, all the sad, all the unfortunate, came to hear the wonderful tidings of God, who out of love for men had given Himself to be crucified and redeem their sins.  When they found a God whom they could love, they had found that which the society of the time could not give any one—  happiness and love."

Henryk Sienkiewicz,  Quo Vadis: In the Time of Nero

Stocks were off to the races later in the day as John McCain suggested he could support the tax bill currently being debated.

It is so kind of Wall Street and the wealthy being enthusiastic for a 'middle class tax cut.'  Not.

Notice that VIX continued to climb today.

Towards the abyss—  step by step, inch by inch.

Gold and silver have gotten smacked around post option expiry as I had suggested that they might be.

Let me assure you of one thing.  You are not going crazy, and the world has not been turned upside down.  Like the last two bubble tops, in 2002 and 2008, things that don't make sense appear to be the norm, and what is proven and substantial seems but a vapor.

This is the objective of a control fraud, and quite a few other frauds in this world:  to make one lose their bearings.

Earlier today with this calculated confusion in mind, I picked a the quotes above.

Together they show the joy of the good news.  And love is its fulfillment.

To turn this joyful gift of peace into hatred, violence, greed, or harshness to others, and especially the least of these, is to sin against the gift of the Spirit, which is peace and love.

God is not a fool, nor vindictive, nor faithless.  God is love, a love so great that He does not overwhelm us with it, out of respect and love for our free will to love Him or not.

To think of God as being in our own human terms and motives, merely more powerful, is to create a false idol that inevitably ends in resentfulness, anger, and despair.

As always, if you wish to test the message of those who would speak for Him, or if you examine your thoughts of these things, always look for the love in it. Love is the one thing that evil, in its selfish egoism, cannot abide.  You may find everything else in there, from self-righteous indignation to stern and unyielding judgement the is blind to His redemption—  but you will not find love.

And if you love the Lord, as He loves you, you cannot turn out of fear back to the despair of the darkness.  For the price has been paid, and you have been freed to walk in the light.  And He will be with you, as He has promised, until He leads you into His father's house.

And if He puts a suffering or a setback upon us as we and the world may see it, it is what we would wish for ourselves, if we were but wise, and understanding of His economy.

As I have mentioned before, I do not direct my writings to those who have given themselves over to Mammon.  Try as we might, they are in God's hands now.  We can remember them in our prayers, but their willing blindness is going to require more than logical arguments and moral appeals.

No, what is of more concern now at this time is the love of the faithful, which is at risk of growing cold given the increase in wickedness and the temptations to despair. Many will fall, and this is of great concern to all, since those who remain steadfast will be saved.

As C. S. Lewis noted in his famous correspondence of the devils, The Screwtape Letters:
“Be not deceived, Wormwood, our cause is never more in jeopardy than when a human, no longer desiring but still intending to do our Enemy's [God's] will, looks round upon a universe in which every trace of Him seems to have vanished, and asks why he has been forsaken, and still obeys.”
Have a pleasant evening.

29 November 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - FANG Stocks Take the Gas Pipe - Dow 'Industrials' Set Record

"He who does not bellow the truth when he knows the truth makes himself the accomplice of liars and forgers."

Charles Peguy

“Tax reform is about job creation. President Trump is working to revitalize America’s main streets by reducing taxes, and making the tax code simpler and fairer. With nearly 1.5 million jobs created since January and two consecutive quarters of GDP growth above 3 percent, the President has unleashed a spirit of economic optimism – but our work is not done.  Lowering taxes for job creators will help them grow and hire more Americans for good, family-sustaining jobs.”

Alexander Acosta, Secretary of Labor, 29 Nov 2017

Too bad the 'job creators' who have been enjoying record profits have repeatedly said that they intend to do what they have been doing all along with their extra cash: stock buybacks, dividends, acquisitions of suppliers and competitors, and larger rewards for management.  And probably more automation and offshoring.

Increasing wages and hiring more workers is a low priority, as it has been for quite a few years.   Why would we think giving the same player MORE money without changing anything or creating new incentives would actually result in a different outcome?

The Tech stock bubble was hit by selling on higher than usual volume today, leading the NDX lower by almost a full percent.

The SP 500 finished up unchanged.

But the Dow Industrials closed higher at a new record, led by those industrial titans like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, American Express, United Healthcare, Pfizer, Disney and Verizon.

The pundits had trouble getting their stories straight today, as some went with a 'risk on' interpretation, since Treasuries and precious metals got hit.

But that was hard to square up with the rising VIX, and the minor bloodbath in the tech darlings.

It seemed to me that there was a rotation going on, from the favored to the downtrodden stocks. Although even that is a bit thin, since some of the sectors getting a boost are clearly the beneficiaries of the Trump campaign to stock picking on Wall Street and let the good times roll in big healthcare, big networks, and the other monopolists.

The speculation is on the Republican 'tax reform' which is pretty much a tax break for the wealthiest few.

Bitcoin, like a few other financial instruments these days, is a bubble.

There is nothing more remarkable  than a New York liar. They are a breed by themselves. The bigger the whopper, the more strident their insistence that they are above all approach, and are virtual fountains of virtue and reform. If their claims are proven false, they will never, ever admit that they were wrong.  They will double down with even more brazen whoppers.  Whatever they do is the best, and you will just love them for the good things they are going to do for you.

Have a pleasant evening.

28 November 2017

Comedians: The Witch Hunt Broadens and Continues

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Twilight of the Gods

"I was satisfied that I wasn't personally to blame and that I hadn't known about those things. I wasn't aware of the extent of the crimes.

But one day I went past the memorial plaque which had been put up for Sophie Scholl in Franz Josef Strasse, and I saw that she was born the same year as me, and she was executed the same year I started working for Hitler.

And at that moment I actually sensed that it was no excuse to be young, and that it would have been possible to find things out."

Traudl Junge, Hitler's Secretary

Know well whom and what it is that you serve, for that is whom you will love, and eventually become.

I will be leaving a bit early today to take Dolly to the veterinarian for her annual checkup.

The markets were rising steadily on the questioning of the new Fed chairman Jay Powell, and on the stiff action by President Trump to diminish the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is a thorn in the side of the Banks. Financial stocks were certainly responding positively to this.

But the news later came out that North Korea has fired another missile, as reported by the Japanese Coast Guard, and later confirmed by the US military, and stocks fluttered a bit, but then resumed their rally led higher by the SP 500 futures and the financial stocks.

I grew tired of the exuberant prevaricators on financial television, and flipped over to the National Geographic channel to watch 'Hitler's Final Days' which chronicled the last 11 months of the Third Reich. I thought it was interesting that the Berlin Philharmonic played Wagner's Twilight of the Gods to a packed house, even as the Allies and the Soviets were closing in from both east and west. How fitting.

If anything happens to dramatically change the charts I will publish something later on. Otherwise I will true things up tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.

27 November 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Godzilla - Options Expiration on the Comex

"Consequences are unpitying."

George Eliot

"Nemesis is long delayed sometimes, but it comes in the end.”

Agatha Christie

The sounds emanating from the markets and the news feeds can mean only one thing—  a page in history is turning, and a new chapter is about to begin.

Today was a precious metals December futures options expiration on the Comex. As you may recall, December is one of the biggest months for the metals futures.

That should tell you quite a bit about the price action.

Those new holders of futures contracts, thanks to holding an in-the-money call into expiration, will probably get a 'gut check' on price at some point, depending on how the numbers went. We will not know this for a day or two.

Much of the physical exchange of gold is being conducted off-market over the counter through 'Exchange for Physical' (EFP) transactions.

The real insights into the physical gold market are to be found as they can in Asia, and to some extent in London.  New York remains remarkably opaque, despite its scrupulous attention to reporting lots of details—  with a deniable linkage to the underlying reality, one might add.  Just read the disclaimer on their reports.

Is there is a risk in this lack of full disclosure?  Of course there is.  The question is whom does it advantage, and disadvantage? 

But alas, this controlling of information for advantage is the sordid tale of our society, where figures who blatantly lie to Congress are later cited as the principle information sources for claims and issues of great national preoccupation and importance.

The scene in Washington becomes increasingly embarrassing, eerily resembling the Third World.   The status quo is doubling down again and again on their perceived advantages.   And this will not be sustained.

Stocks were largely unchanged today.  The prognosticators are looking forward to a continuation of this asset inflation, without a corresponding stimulus and growth in the real economy.  And thereby it is the best of times, and the worst of times, as the saying goes.

Have a pleasant evening.

24 November 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Precious Metals Option Expiry Next Week - Nocturne

"And can the liberties of a nation be thought secure when we have removed their only firm basis, a conviction in the minds of the people that these liberties are the gift of God? That they are not to be violated but with his wrath?   Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just: that his justice cannot sleep for ever."

Thomas Jefferson, Notes on the State of Virginia

"We all want progress.  But progress means getting nearer to the place where you want to be.  And if you have taken a wrong turning, then to go forward does not get you any nearer.  If you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; and in that case the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive man.”

C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity

And this is why the mainstream Democrats are largely unsuccessful, and functionally useless. They only wish to continue, with an excess of verbal misdirection, the abysmally ineffective and often downright damaging fiscal policies that have been taking the Western World in the wrong direction since the 1980s.

There will be a Dec Futures option expiration on the Comex for the precious metals on Monday 27 November. December is a significant month for both metals.

The US Dollar has declined significantly, without a corresponding increase in gold and silver priced in dollars as much as we might have expected.  This indicates a level of tension in the markets.

Stocks drifted higher for the half day today on very light volumes.

I have included the economic calendar for next week which is a bit lively.

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being effective representatives and champions of the people, the Congressional Democrats are a 3, maybe, and the House Republicans are venal bottom feeders of the moneyed interests and corporatism.

Have a pleasant weekend.

23 November 2017

Thanksgiving Day 2017

“Do not indulge in dreams of having what you have not, but reckon up the greatest of the blessings you do possess, and then thankfully remember how you would crave for them if they were not yours.”

Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

"We pray for the big things, and forget to give thanks for the ordinary, small, and yet really not so small, blessings.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

"Rejoice in the Lord always; and again I will say, rejoice; let your gentleness and consideration be known to all, for the Lord is always near.   Do not be anxious about anything, but with prayer, and by supplication, and with thanksgiving, let your needs be made known unto God.   And the peace of the Lord, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds, in Christ Jesus."

Philippians 4:4-7

"Our Lord's love shines forth as much in the simplest of souls as it does in the most highly gifted, as long as there is no refusal offered to his grace."

Thérèse Martin de Lisieux

May the peace of the Lord, which surpasses all understanding, be yours always,  especially at this time of thankfulness, the counting of blessings, His tender mercies, and the celebration of life.

22 November 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Thankfulness

"At times our own light goes out and is rekindled by a spark from another person.

Each of us has cause to think with deep gratitude of those who have relighted the flame within us."

Albert Schweitzer

"Gratitude is the most exquisite form of courtesy."

Jacques Maritain

The Fed minutes noted that inflation remains persistently subdued.

No surprise there, since top down stimulus to my knowledge has never worked, and is certainly not doing anything now except distorting the economy with asset bubbles and straining the social fabric.

So let's pass a massive tax cut that favors, to a remarkable degree, the already wealthy.

Peak hubris.

Today was a very productive day, despite the cold and wind interspersed with fluffy clouds and sun.  It was almost a type of what life is like, with the good mixed with the not so good.

I have loaves of honey whole wheat bread baking in the oven.  I have not made this in forever, so let's see how it turns out.  It is a special request for my son, who is my joy and my consolation.   Right after Dolly of course.

I picked up a bottle of the nouveau beaujolais and intend to have it tonight. I know it is no longer 'cool' with wine drinkers.   But for many years the queen and I would spend Thanksgiving week in London, and we always would enjoy some of it, lured into the stores by the chalk board signs on the sidewalks.

Wow, the honey wheat bread is really making the whole house smell festive. And I am making the turkey broth to be used with the stuffing and roasting pan tomorrow in my handy Instantpot.

And then there is eggnog chilling for tonight, with a touch of good brandy in it. Yum-o.

To all my US readers and guests, please have a very happy and fruitful Thanksgiving Day.

And for the rest of the world, please do try to carry on without the guidance of our elites.  And for  that, you may be sincerely thankful.

May the peace of the Lord, which surpasses all understanding, be yours always, and especially at these times of thankfulness, the counting of blessings and tender mercies, and the celebration of life.

Have a pleasant evening.