"If at the start this cancerous growth in the nation was not particularly noticeable, it was only because there were still enough forces at work that operated for the good, so that it was kept under control. As it grew larger, however, and finally in an ultimate spurt of growth attained ruling power, the tumor broke open, as it were, and infected the whole body." The White Rose, Munich 1942
"During my eighty-seven years I have witnessed a whole succession of technological revolutions. But none of them has done away with the need for character in the individual or the ability to think."
Bernard Baruch
"Like liberty, gold never stays where it is undervalued."
John S. Morrill
Stocks had an upbeat finish to the end of the first quarter.
What a surprise.
Gold and silver gained back a little from the option expiration mugging of yesterday.
There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls Report next week.
Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God and God in them.
"But this I said to them, 'Listen to my voice; then I will be your God and you shall be my people. Walk in the ways that I have given you, so that you may prosper.' But they did not obey or show respect. Rather, they walked on in the hardness of their evil hearts, and turned their backs, not their faces, to me...
They have not listened to me or given me due attention; they have stiffened their necks and become worse than their fathers. When you speak these words to them, they will not listen to you either; when you call to them, they will not answer. Say to them: 'You are the nation that does not listen to the voice of the Lord, its God, or take His counsel. Truth has perished by your hand, and is no longer even on your lips.'"
Jeremiah 7:23-28
"God has a way of standing before the nations with judgment, and it seems that I can hear God saying to America, 'You're too arrogant! And if you don't change your ways, I will rise up and break the backbone of your power, and I'll place it in the hands of a nation that doesn't even know my name. Be still and know that I'm God.'"
Martin Luther King, It's a Dark Day In Our Nation
Today was an option expiration for gold on the Comex. Couldn't you tell?
The explanation was that the Dollar's strength had become too much to ignore, and 'gold had become a crowded trade.'
I suspect that with this kind of smackdown in the futures markets that the gold trade is quite a bit less crowded.
And that really was the point of this— a good, old fashioned wash and rinse keying off the option expiration.
Do I hear the train? Waiting for my son
Stocks had another ranging day, and while they managed to finish in the green it was not an impressive performance by any means.
The economic numbers are not impressive and more indicative of a looming recession. I expect the denial of this to be quite strong, and then strident, until it comes upon us. And then they will look at each other and say, 'who could have known?'
For those of you who have sent their well-wishes, be assured that Dolly is back in the saddle, managing me and her mischief with artful stealth. I include a snapshot of her monitoring my activity in the kitchen.
As you know, we had received her from a rescue group called Best Friends, who take dogs and cats that for one reason or another are not likely to be adopted from kill shelters and finds them a caring home.
In Dolly's case she had been so horribly neglected and abused that she needed a month of care before she could undergo surgery to repair the damage she had sustained. It was funny, but the Queen picked her, and with the complicity of my son compelled me to accept this little one. Little did we know that in about three months the dosctors would discover the queen's brain tumor.
As I have said before, every good thing I have had or have been came from her, she being an answer to my prayers for a good and faithful companion.
“Man has places in his heart which do not yet exist— and into them enters suffering, in order that they may have life.”
Léon Bloy
"Yes, we shall be in chains, and there will be no freedom, but then from our great sorrow we shall rise again to joy, without which man cannot live nor God exist, for God gives joy: it's His privilege— a grand one. Ah, man should be dissolved in prayer! What should I be there, underground without God? If they drive God from the earth, we shall shelter Him underground."
Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov
"The days are coming, said Almighty God,
when I will send a famine throughout the land.
Not a famine of bread, or a thirst for water,
But of hearing of the words of the Lord."
Amos 8:11
“Go straight for souls, and go for the worst.”
William Booth, founder of The Salvation Army
Booth ought to have established his missions not only amongst the poor and the wretched in their East end slums, in material misery and deprivations, but in the drawing rooms of Mayfair, and the counting rooms of the City of London.
Among those fine and gleaming tombs is where one will find the very worst, the souls most lost, the hollow dead who think that they are in control, the most alive and shining forth, while wandering damned in blindness.
Stocks were swooning by mid-day, but managed to take back some of those losses into the close.
This is not constructive action for the bulls.
Gold and silver lost a bit of luster as the Dollar moved a bit higher.
Yesterday was an option expiration for silver on the Crimex. And there will be another minor expiration tomorrow for gold.
And if, in the end, no one else will listen, I will play my song for those most innocent of souls, for dogs and cats, and passersby.
"None are more unjust in their judgments of others than those who have a high opinion of themselves."
Charles Spurgeon
"God's truth judges created things out of love, and Satan's truth judges them out of envy and hatred."
Dietrich Bonhoeffer
"Why do you pass judgement on your brothers and sisters? Why do you seek to despise them? For some day we will all stand before the judgement seat of God."
Romans 14:10
"In judging others a man labors in vain, is often wrong, and easily sins; but in judging and examining himself, he always labors fruitfully."
Thomas à Kempis
“A proud man is always looking down on things and people; and, of course, as long as you are looking down, you cannot see something that is above you.”
C.S. Lewis
This would be a much happier world if people would just accept the fact that they are human, and little different from one another— imperfect, and weak, and erring, and fallen. And without any privilege or exceptions over their fellows, in the eyes of God.
Then they might repent of their faults and seek forgiveness, rather than spending their time judging others, harshly and with presumption, as their inferiors. Then they would not so readily blind themselves, while seeking to justify their special privileges and compensations which they and those who think like them grant to each other. Then they might see their acts as the theft and deception that they are.
Our exceptional markets seem a bit inconstant and inconsistent these days. It may be difficult to diagnose, but is there any doubt that these US markets have ADHD brought on by repeated sugar highs from the Fed and an appalling lack of stable and steady regulation?
Our judgement of ourselves and others, and our place as a people and a nation in this world, is almost uniformly appalling in its clumsiness and self-serving biases.
Is there any doubt that those who most think themselves to be exceptional are in fact the most thoroughly foolish and blinded by pride?
"Some time ago I suggested that this implausible and histrionic Russia-gate investigation fomented by the Clintonistas appears to be a thinly-veiled fishing expedition. The target is not any significant 'collusion' to throw the election, but much more likely [to be] obstruction of justice, coming off dodgy private real estate deals and assorted financial arrangements involving money laundering..."
Jesse, 11 January 2018
Russiagate was a diversion and a distraction from the real work that needs to be done— that of reforming the political and financial systems and putting an end to this predatory economy and its damaging bubbles.
No one in the public was a winner in this. This was a set piece from the realm of staged spectacles. It is a diversion by and for the elite— bread and circuses. It engages the passions and numbs the minds to the systemic looting for the benefit of a few, which continues.
The criminal investigations will be conducted by the Southern District of New York. And those are underway. Anyone who has followed Donald's career knows how deep into the seamier side of NYC real estate development he has been, with all that this implies.
Stocks failed to plant a close over key support today.
Gold has moved to the top of the short term trend channel on the chart. It either moves higher and breaks out or is likely to retrace some of its recent upwards move. Let's hope for a consolidation and a breakout higher, but be prepared for whatever the market gives us.
Companions are a joy and consolation of life. But sometimes they demand our attention and caring. I was up most of the night with Dolly, who was sicker than at anytime since we had her. The poor little thing was losing it from both ends, and mostly in incovenient places. But as she has settled down and is feeling better, and holding down a little rice and chicken broth, I too will kick back and rest with her. And so I will say no more for now.
There will be precious metals expirations on the Comex this week. They are not for contracts of consequence.
The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.
"It looks like we might have another blow off top in the works. The tech sector was rampaging higher today. When in doubt break glass and recycle the last bubble. Let's see how much more these jokers can squeeze out of this."
Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 21 March 2019
"My cyclical calculations and trend forecasts suggest that July 2020 may be a decisive, if not pivotal, period in our time. I think I may have mentioned this once or twice before."
Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 26 February 2019
"It's probably early days, but now might be the time to start taking precautions against a 2008 class event in the financial markets. I would suggest it might arrive anytime between now and July 2020. These sorts of things depend on the magnitude of any 'trigger event,' which is why it is so difficult to forecast with regard to specific dates. As time goes on the required force for a market moving event decreases until it takes very little to set that ball in motion."
Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 24 July 2018
"Sooner or later a crash is coming.
And it may be terrific."
Roger Babson, Sept. 15, 1929
The antics in support of the Levi-Strauss IPO in the market yesterday were just begging to be shorted into the close. And I did. And cashed in today. I do not trade short term in size much anymore, but sometimes they do almost ring a bell, and it is hard for an old hound dog to just keep laying on the porch.
The US Treasury Yield Curve inverted today for the first time since 2007. The talking heads were stumbling and mumbling about it. They just cannot imagine what is coming.
Timing a big event like this is brutal, since there are so many exogenous variables. And forecasting a notoriously low probability event is rather difficult, even when the probability becomes relatively more probable.
We may move even higher in this markets asset bubble. Heck, we could even see a real monetary driven asset inflation before this is over, even if there is virtually no organic inflation because of the skewed and corruption financial system.
But with respect to timing I still like my longer running forecast, suggesting we will see a genuinely significant downside event in the markets, and perhaps in the socio-political system, by July 2020. although now that seems like an 'outside' date for it.
If December 2018 was really a market 'break' in the manner of March 1929 then we may not even make it to October of this year.
Gold showed the kind of resilience today that one would look for in a safe haven asset. It moved higher with the Dollar But keep in mind that in a liquidation event even gold is likely to take a hit. Likely, but it will recover more quickly than most other assets. Silver will tag along, weighed down by its industrial component.
It appears as though Theresa May has obtained a Brexit reprieve of sorts from the EU. Let's see if we can reset our counter as the situation clarifies.
Let us remember the poor people along the Missouri River who are being flooded out, thanks to the aging and inadequate levees which have crumbled. We all know why we can't have nice things like the rest of the developed world. After all, sacrifices must be made.
I am pleased to let you know that another Englishman will be recognized as a saint. John Henry Newman has been named for canonization, although the exact date for this has not yet been given. I have been praying and quietly supporting the cause for this since 1983. And now it seems as though it is finally here.
Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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