25 June 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - GoPro IPO Getting Priced


The latest revision to 1Q GDP was horrific.

And it had little effect on equities. How come?

This was the third revision of 1Q14 GDP. In this market near the end of 2Q14 that is ancient history.

If we had gotten an initial print for 1Q14 GDP of -2.9% the markets would have been freaking out. So they slowrolled it, and it worked. No one paid attention.

There is a very cynical game going on here. The government pretends to put out legitimate measures of economic activity, and the markets pretend to believe them where it suits their purposes.

There is a general understanding that 1Q passed the test of believability that it was all due to the weather, so the bureaucrats piled on the bad news making it a 'kitchen sink' quarter.

Everyone can ignore all that bad news because it was a while ago, and was due to a one-off, a very bad winter. And so this terrible quarter will provide a very favorable comparison for the next quarter, and probably the one after that, which will be conveniently in time for the November elections.

The real economy is what it is, despite all the fluff and papier-mâché. And it will have consequences. But for now, it is all happy time in New York and Washington.

GoPro is pricing their IPO after the bell tonight. Aereo was crushed by a Supreme Court ruling that knocked down their prevarication of a business model.

Have a pleasant evening.





NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Silver Holds Its Level


There is little question that a major short interest position in silver that had built up in the first part of this year was taken out and pummeled by the power players in the market.  Gold was also oversold on paper, but not to the extent of silver.

Today is a quiet options expiration so far, probably because of this.  The urge to sell silver by going short has been tempered by the beating administered to those who went a bit too far in their antics. 

There is some chance that a gut check will be delivered to the longs at some point before the end of the month, just to keep them orderly.   But the real question is if the trend followers and momentum players will take to the long side now, having run out the clock on the big short.

The irony here is that while funds and specs play their paper reindeer games with each other, the Comex is largely ignoring the physical bullion market.  A little more leverage here, some strategic papering over there, and the band plays on.

These self-absorbed games, and the hubris of the banking cartel, are setting up a monumental dislocation in the global markets.   Try not to exhaust your funds by chasing short term returns and risks through all this nonsense, until the fundamentals becoming overpowering and bend the paper trade to the inevitable reckoning. 

These are dangerous markets, badly regulated, and overlaid with traps and tricks.  Spend your money on more useful endeavors.  Get out of debt, and take your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible.  The oligarchy is not only audacious, but is increasingly rapacious, which for the public is an unfortunate combination, and a terrible burden on the real economy.

As Peter Bernstein said about trading, 'The trick is to survive.'   Until they do not.  And then they go on television. 



24 June 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Option Expiration Tomorrow - Fear Indicator


Cap, cap, cap. The metals are up against some key technical resistance.

They'll never learn. Their pretty charts and paper markets are not the real deal.

Comex will have the July option expirations for the precious metals tomorrow. This is more of an issue for silver than for gold.

There was a little actual movement of gold bullion in the Comex warehouses yesterday. These jokers could supply a decent sized retail coin shop, maybe.

Amazing markets, considering that the Credit Suisse Fear Indicator has just hit an all time high.

Have a pleasant evening.









SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pop n' Flop


Stocks were rallying this morning on the 'better than expected' news about housing and consumer confidence.

As the day wore on, the punters apparently looked behind those numbers and did not like what they saw, and stocks ended up selling off on the day.

VIX has climbed back up a bit to a more 'normal' level of risk.

I had played an advantageous short position from last night, and cleared it out near the close.

The Dubai stock market crashed yesterday. Add that to the list, along with Argentina.

There is risk in these markets. It is just a question of what the trigger event might be, and of course when.

Have a pleasant evening.