Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Tripping Along the Abyss

 

“Archegos’ meltdown had all the makings of a dangerous situation — largely unregulated hedge fund, opaque derivatives, trading in private dark pools, high leverage, and a trader who wriggled out of the SEC’s enforcement.”

Senator Elizabeth Warren

 

"Beware the leaven of the Pharisees, which is hollow hypocrisy.  There is nothing covered that shall not be revealed, and hidden, that shall not be made known.  Whatever has been said in the darkness shall be heard in the light: and what has been whispered behind closed doors shall be shouted from the roof tops."

Luke 12:1-3

 

The valuation debate du jour amongst the spokesmodels on neo-Bubblevision financial TV was whether, after a pullback, Bitcoin will rise to either $400,000 or $600,000. 

I mean, some guy said it.  All we did was endlessly repeat it without any counter-commentary.

Yeah, right.

It was risk off in the markets on an inflationary wave of expanding asset valuations today.

Gold and silver powered higher, which silver showing its hallmark volatility.

When it moves, it moves.

The dollar chopped sideways.

Stocks rallied into the close.

And no one can see it coming.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Control Frauds and Cryptic Valuations - A Market of Illusions

 

"Control frauds are seemingly legitimate entities controlled by persons that use them as a fraud weapon. A single control fraud can cause greater losses than all other forms of property crime combined.

Financial control frauds’ primary weapon is accounting.  Fraudulent lenders produce exceptional short-term “profits” through a four-part strategy: extreme growth (Ponzi), lending to uncreditworthy borrowers, extreme leverage, and minimal loss reserves. These exceptional profits defeat regulatory restrictions and turn private market discipline perverse. 

The finance sector is most criminogenic because of the absence of effective regulation and the ability to invest in assets that lack readily verifiable values.  Unless regulators deal effectively with the initial frauds their record profits will produce imitators. 

Mega bubbles produce financial crises." 

William K. Black, Recurrent, Intensifying Bubbles and Crises 

 

"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will reap.  For whoever sows to the flesh will from the flesh reap corruption, but whoever sows to the Spirit will from the Spirit reap everlasting life.  And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due time we shall reap if we do not lose heart." 

Galatians 6:7-9

 

When we look back on this period in time with the perspective of history, we will see markets dominated by control frauds and mispricing of risk that will seem painfully obvious.   Why do we not see this now?  Why did so few see it coming 2007, and in 2000? 

Perhaps because the money is too good, and our societal judgement is too corrupted, often willfully so.   

Still, bubbles have a surprising resiliency, as does evil in a hardened heart.  

And for the same reasons.

 

Related:  Trader's Lawsuit Offers Window Into Crime Culture at Bank

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Cryptic Valuations and the Bubble From Hell - At the Quiet Limit of the World

 

"Here we may reign secure, and in my choice
to reign is worth ambition though in Hell: 
Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven."

John Milton, Paradise Lost 

 

“Evil when we are in its power is not felt as evil, but as a necessity, or even a duty.   Sin is not a distance, it is a turning of our gaze in the wrong direction.." 

Simone Weil

 

"...old as Babylon, and evil as Hell."

Edward Abbey

 

"Foolishness has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.  In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; they did not believe in plagues." 

Albert Camus

 

We are back in a bubble that is strikingly similar in size and sentiment ot the dotcom bubble at the turn of the century. 

This struck me very hard today while I was watching financial tv, and listened to a discussion of the cryptocurrency markets. 

Sometime in the next two years, and with a good probability of later this year, we are going to fall back down into the plunge pool of reality. 

The cynicism with which people approach most things now is almost incredible. 

I am now very alert, and have structured my portfolio and my general life more defensively. 

I have taken most profits.   I employ no leverage.

Am I being overcautious?   Yes I think I probably am.

Especially compared to those who are chasing risks with abandon, and begging to get skinned.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Mavens of Complexity

 

The Lord has told you what is good,
And what it is He requires of you;
Live with justice, love with kindness,
And walk humbly with your God.

Micah 6:20

Like so many things the message to us is clear and simple.

But we like to complicate things, to overwrite creation with our willfulness and pride.

This false complexity is the very hallmark of a fraud.

Interesting stock option expiration.

The lower yield of treasuries has caused the dollar to weaken. 

Gold and silver have run up to key overhead resistance.

They need to go the next step higher in order to confirm a bottom and rally.

We may see some backing and filling, first, and perhaps a test of the precious metals bulls' resolve.

Gold and silver are now trading like currencies.

Have a pleasant weekend.