Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Better Call Powell - Black Swans a-Swimming

 

“So that the question is: would there be any advantage, at this particular stage, in going back to the gold standard?  And the answer is: I don't think so, because we're acting as though we were there.  So I think central banking, I believe, has learned the dangers of fiat money, and I think, as a consequence of that, we've behaved as though there are, indeed, real reserves underneath the system." 

Alan Greenspan, 20 July 2005 

 

"Complex systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks.  In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface.  Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite.  These artificially constrained systems become prone to 'black swans' — that is, they become extremely vulnerable to large-scale events that lie far from the statistical norm and were largely unpredictable to a given set of observers. 

Such environments eventually experience massive blowups, catching everyone off-guard and undoing years of stability or, in some cases, ending up far worse than they were in their initial volatile state. Indeed, the longer it takes for the blowup to occur, the worse the resulting harm in both economic and political systems."

Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan of Cairo

 

"...we stood talking for some time together of Bishop Berkeley's ingenious sophistry to prove the nonexistence of matter, and that every thing in the universe is merely ideal.  I observed, that though we are satisfied his doctrine is not true, it is impossible to refute it.  I never shall forget the alacrity with which Johnson answered, striking his foot with mighty force against a large stone, till he rebounded from it— I refute it thus." 

Boswell, Life of Johnson

Stocks moved a bit higher today ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

Tesla beat expectations after the bell, but the stock just moved sideways. 

Bitcoin is one of their corporate assets

The Dollar chopped sideways, and failed to take back the 91 handle.

Gold and silver moved slightly higher.

There will be a precious metals option expiration on the Comex tomorrow.

It is not a significant contract month for gold.

JPM is going to be offering a 'bit coin fund' for its wealthier clients.

Have a pleasant evening.

Weekend Reading

 

"Then many of his disciples who were listening said, “This saying is hard; who can accept it?”...

As a result of this, many disciples returned to their former way of life and no longer accompanied him. Jesus then said to the Twelve, “Do you also want to leave?” Simon Peter answered him, 'Master, to whom shall we go? You have the words of eternal life.'" 

 

“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him. We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now. We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

God's presence is not discerned at the time when it is upon us, but afterwards, when we look back upon what is gone and over. The world seems to go on as usual. There is nothing of heaven in the face of society, in the news of the day.

And yet the ever-blessed Spirit of God is there, ten times more glorious, more powerful than when He trod the earth in our flesh.

God beholds you. He calls you by your name. He sees you and understands you as He made you. He knows what is in you, all your peculiar feelings and thoughts, your dispositions and likings, your strengths and your weaknesses. He views you in your day of rejoicing and in your day of sorrow. He sympathizes in your hopes and your temptations. He interests Himself in all your anxieties and remembrances, all the risings and fallings of your spirit.

He encompasses you round and bears you in His arms. He notes your very countenance, whether smiling or in tears. He looks tenderly upon you. He hears your voice, the beating of your heart, and your very breathing. You do not love yourself better than He loves you. You cannot shrink from pain more than He dislikes your bearing it; and if He puts it on you, it is as you would put it on yourself, if you would be wise, for a greater good afterwards.

There is an inward world, which none see but those who belong to it. There is an inward world into which they enter who come to Christ, though to men in general they seem as before. If they drank of Christ's cup it is not with them as in time past. They came for a blessing, and they have found a work.

To their surprise, as time goes on, they find that their lot is changed. They find that in one shape or another adversity happens to them. If they refuse to afflict themselves, God afflicts them.

Why did you taste of His heavenly feast, but that it might work in you—why did you kneel beneath His hand, but that He might leave on you the print of His wounds?

God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission -- I may never know it in this life but I shall be told it in the next.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons. He has not created me for naught.

I shall do good, I shall do His work. I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him. Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away. If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him. If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him.

He does nothing in vain. He knows what He is about.

He may take away my friends. He may throw me among strangers. He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me -- still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are--sinners attempting great things. Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come. He can turn all things to our eternal good. Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.

Contemplate then yourself, not as yourself, but as you are in the Eternal God. Fall down in astonishment at the glories which are around you and in you, poured to and fro in such a wonderful way that you are dissolved into the Kingdom of God.

The more we do, the more shall we trust in Christ; and that surely is no morose doctrine, that leads us to soothe our selfish restlessness, and forget our fears, in the vision of the Incarnate Son of God.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.

Then in His mercy may He give us a safe lodging, and a holy rest, and peace at the last.”

John Henry Newman

 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On

 

Stocks went on a tear higher in the afternoon and went out near  the highs.

The VIX declined.

The Dollar lost the 91 handle.

Gold and silver fell a bit. 

It was a risk on day, all the way

Next week we will have the FOMC meeting.

There is the opportunity for a misstep, even a small change in words.

But the Fed is very market driven.

Gold and silver might have a bit of a tough week ahead, with the FOMC and the Comex option expiration

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Saving Private Equity

 

"The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small.  It is nearly nil.  Perhaps this is inherent.  In a community where the primary concern is making money, one of the necessary rules is to live and let live.  To speak out against madness may be to ruin those who have succumbed to it.  So the wise in Wall Street are nearly always silent.  The foolish thus have the field to themselves.  None rebukes them." 

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

 

“There are two ways to be fooled.   One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” 

Søren Kierkegaard

 

“Foolishness is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice.  One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force.   Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease.   Against foolishness we are defenseless.   Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed – in such moments the foolish person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.” 

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Prisoner for God: Letters and Papers from Prison

 

Stocks did a sharp about face on the 'scoop' from Bloomberg today that Biden may be considering a sharp increase in the capital gains tax on millionaires.

Since Washington is in the back and forth negotiations on spending and revenue plans, the drama was probably a bit overdone.   But it does sell clicks and ad views.

Gold and silver retreated a bit from their decent highs and the dollar chopped sideways.

There will be a Comex option expiration on the precious metals next week.

Have a pleasant evening.