Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Hard Row to Hoe

 

"Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, delivered one of his starkest warnings yet on the current market environment arguing AI enthusiasm has pushed markets into bubble territory reminiscent of 1929 and 2000.  His warning arrives just as the market prepares to test his thesis in real time: SpaceX has already gone public in the largest IPO ever, and Anthropic and OpenAI are barreling toward trillion-dollar valuations—precisely the kind of speculative issuance surge that market historians treat as a bubble's clearest warning sign."

Fortune 3 August 2026

"There seems little question that in 1929 the economy was fundamentally unsound. This is a circumstance of first-rate importance. In 1929 the rich were indubitable rich. The figures are not entirely satisfactory, but it seems certain that the five per cent of the population with the highest incomes in that year received approximately one-third of all income.

This highly unequal income distribution meant that the economy was dependent on a high level of investment or a high level of luxury consumer spending or both.  The rich cannot buy great quantities of bread.  If they are to dispose of what they receive it must be on luxuries or by way of investment in new plants and new projects.  Both investment and luxury spending are subject, inevitably, to more erratic influences and to wider fluctuations than the bread and rent outlays of the $25-week workman. This high bracket spending and investment was especially susceptible, one may assume, to the crushing news from the stock market in October 1929."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929, 1955

"Hoover quickly developed a reputation as uncaring.  He cut unemployment figures that reached his desk, eliminating those he thought were only temporarily jobless and not seriously looking for work.  In June 1930, a delegation came to see him to request a federal public works program.  Hoover responded to them by saying, 'Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late.  The Depression is over.'  He insisted that 'nobody is actually starving' and that 'the hoboes are better fed than they have ever been.'  He claimed that the vendors selling apples on street corners had 'left their jobs for the more profitable one of selling apples.'

'There are some principles that cannot be compromised,' Hoover remarked in 1936.  "Either we shall have a society based upon ordered liberty and the initiative of the individual, or we shall have a planned society that means dictation no matter what you call it.  There is no half-way ground.'  He was convinced that the economy would fix itself."

Digital History, Herbert Hoover, 2021

“Thanks to the tax cuts we passed, Americans’ paychecks are a little bigger today.  Every business can write off the full cost of the new investments they make this year.  These steps will grow the economy.”

Herbert Hoover, Campaign Speech, Detroit, October 22, 1932 

"In his memoirs, Hoover describes a 'leave it alone' school of thought headed by Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon, who advocated allowing the economic slump to run its course.  Mellon believed in a harsh restructuring, famously stating 'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.'"

Herbert Hoover, Memoirs of Herbert Hoover, 1952

"J. P. Morgan and Andrew Mellon made their billions through inter locking directorates and outright ownership of hundreds of nationally prominent enterprises.  Glass-Steagall is one crucial piece of a litany of legislation designed to place checks and balances on the concentration of financial resources.  To repeal it would be tantamount to bringing back the days of the robber barons."

Mark D. Samber, End Bank Law and Robber Barons Ride Again, NY Times, March 5, 1995

"The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover was an engineer. He knew that water trickles down. But he didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night, anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellows hands.”

Will Rogers, Weekly Column, St. Petersburg Times, Nov 26, 1932

 

The rumors spread about an imminent deal with Iran by high ranking officials of the government, including the cleverly worded statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, were greatly exaggerated.

But it did provide the opportunity to once again crush the price of crude oil to a price that, from what I hear and see, is not available for actual physical delivery just about anywhere.

There seems to be a lot of that going around these days.  Such are the times, and the purposeful fog of war.

There were missiles flying and tankers sinking today.   If you did not know this and the recent announcement from Iran on the Strait of Hormuz then you may wish to find another source of news - or be content to operate on faulty information.

So we had quite the pop and flop in stocks day, with new highs fading quickly into the red as the false underpinnings of the rally faded.

Ok, so the reckoning with oil supply is likely to become more noticeable in a few weeks.  But the general deterioration of the economy and the nature of the AI tech bubble is very apparent.

Gold and silver rallied sharply.   Before I draw too many strong conclusions about this I want to see how they perform through the Non-Farm Payrolls report this Friday, a traditional event for metals smashing.

SpaceX popped and then flopped back to the distribution trendline.   There are more shares coming out of 'lockup' in the near term than were issued at the time of the IPO.

But the problem is really that the underpinnings of the AI tech rally are just not sustainable or even realistic.  It seems to be a classic 'new era' stock bubble.

Ray Dalio and Michael Burry see this.  With well-deserved humility I see it as well.

I am fairly convinced that there is going to be a reckoning of memorable proportions later this year, on a scale with other significant financial adjustment events of the past as Dalio indicates.

The power elite are feeling good, and giddy with success.

If there are damned souls in Hell, it is because men blind themselves. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Iron Laws of the World Cut Both Ways

 

"Narcissistic personalities care only for themselves, their needs, and their priorities.  While you and I appreciate attention, the narcissist craves it and manipulates people and situations to get it.  While you and I work hard to be successful, the narcissistic personality connives to succeed and may cheat, lie, embellish the truth, or scheme to get ahead, uncaring of how others are affected. 

These personalities can be found in every level of our society, right up to the top, where history's grim record shows that they've started wars and exterminated populations.  But they're also found in the cubicle or on the bar stool next to you, at home, on the team, in the classroom, and even in your spiritual community.

Some narcissistic personalities present themselves as being very accomplished, but in fact they've accomplished little — which doesn't stop them from acting superior and seeing themselves as a great inventor, artist, musician, thinker, leader, or singer.  When things don't go their way, they blame everyone but themselves.  Maybe these individuals made mistakes, are incompetent, or just aren't well liked, but you'll never hear that from them.  No, the system, society, the boss, the professor, the electorate, the world is against them.  We simply fail to see how great they are.

When others don't treat narcissists as the special person they deem themselves to be, their reaction is infantile rage that ranges from sulking to whining to seething and, sometimes, to violence.  They can berate and blame with impunity, hold grudges, and be vengeful — that is their nature.

Because they see themselves as special and unique, narcissistic personalities tend to see everyone else as either marginal or inferior.  They become masters at putting others down in order to elevate themselves — they are the bullies of the world.  A person who feels superior to others will have limited ability to empathize. 

The most dangerous narcissists are those whose utter lack of empathy and high levels of grandiosity verge on psychopathy: the ability to do harm without remorse. They have no conscience and will exploit others emotionally, financially, and sometimes physically.  If you please them, you are convenient; if you displease them, you're more than an inconvenience — you're something they must debase or perhaps destroy.

Because they feel entitled, narcissistic personalities may feel they don't have to work as hard as others, that they can take shortcuts to get what they want, or that the rules don't apply to them.  This is how you end up with politicians who have affairs, father children, and attempt to deny their paternity; turn public funds into their own private piggy bank; or are willing to sell political favors for a price."

Joe Navarro, Destructive Personalities, 2014

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured the markets that a full deal to restore the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Iran of course said this is all nonsense and launched a few missiles to punctuate their comments. 

And stocks rallied higher with a fury, as the signal to buy and devil take the hindmost had been given.

The SP 500 hit a new all time high.

While the NDX rallied it is still non confirming the move and failing to set a higher high.

But more interesting to me, the VIX ticked higher on a massive broad stock rally.

Gold and silver bounced.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. 

Bitcoin bounced.

Even SpaceX bounced.

The price of crude oil was hammered lower, beyond all rational calculation. 

This was a purposeful blast of bubble for political and personal motives, and I am not desperately encouraged by it at all. 

The power elite are running up tabs in terms of debt and the malinvestment of resources that is going to bite, and bit hard later on this year.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Do Not Let Your Hearts Be Troubled

 

"Do not be afraid little flock, for your Father delights to welcome you into His kingdom."

Luke 12:32

"Why do you fight and argue among yourselves?  Isn’t it because of your sinful desires?  They fight within you.  You want something, but you don’t have it.  So you kill.  You want what others have, but you can’t get what you want.  So you argue and fight.  You don’t have what you want, because you don’t ask for it from God.  When you do ask for something, you don’t receive it.  That’s because you ask for the wrong reason.  You want to spend your money on your sinful pleasures.

You are not faithful to God.  Don’t you know that to be a friend of the world is to hate God?  So anyone who chooses to be the world’s friend becomes God’s enemy.  Don’t you know what Scripture says?  God wants the spirit in us to belong only to him.  God caused this spirit to live in us.  Don’t you think Scripture has a reason for saying this?  But God continues to give us more grace.  That’s why Scripture says, 'God opposes those who are proud. But he gives grace to those who are humble.'

So obey God, and stand up to the devil.  He will run away from you.  Come near to God, and he will come near to you.  Wash your hands, you sinners.  Make your hearts pure, you who can’t make up your minds.  Be full of sorrow.  Cry and weep.  Change your laughter to mourning.  Change your joy to sadness.  Be humble in front of the Lord.  And he will raise you up.  

James 4:1-10

"Have we learned nothing?  Have we sunk so low that we no longer fear the reproach of civilized people, or the judgement even of God?  We seem to have no shame, no sense of history, no compunction about lying and wallowing in lies, and relatively little enough decency left in our public life.  It is all about power and money."

Jesse, Political Power and the Virus of Fear, 10 October 2018

“You should do something great, you should become resigned to the fact you will seem ridiculous to a race of janitors and bureaucrats if you are to enter into the service of Splendor.  Then you will know what it means to be a friend of God.  The Friend of God!"

Léon Bloy, Le Désespéré, 1887

“Do not let your hearts be troubled. You trust in God. Trust also in me."

John 14:1


Wall Street, with Washington, is pushing the public and traders to shorten their horizons and the focus of their thought and reactions to today, just the here and now.

This leaves you without an anchor in reality, to be tossed here and there by greed and fear spurred by their latest lies and headlines, like short term day traders.  This is how a con man bamboozles his victims.  

Resist this.  Maintain your observations and plans to more than a day. 

Think about the next seven days for trading purposes, and perhaps the next thirty days at least for planning your strategy.  And think about what you need to do to prepare for the future. And then you may not be blindsided. 

So we had another Trump Bump, in which he threatens war almighty, and then announces a peace deal in time for the weekend futures to have fun with it.

The most recent claim of peace talks, like the others before it in the same pattern, are purposeful fabrications.  Iran launched a missile at a tanker attempting to sneak through the Strait shortly after this announcement and then said that these claims of POTUS are rubbish designed to manipulate world markets.

"A source close to Iranian officials says Tehran has documented a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to Axios reporting and Trump administration insiders, including evidence of a $9 billion insider trading operation linked to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The documented timeline of the $9 billion insider profit."  The Hormuz Letter

It will be interesting to see if anything comes of it, and if the evidence they claim to have is turned over to and picked up by the Western media. 

Wall Street does not care.  They just view this as a 'buy signal' from insiders which they can also ride for some short term profits.  They have virtually no morals or regard for the integrity of the markets except for PR purposes.

Gold and silver were of course hit, and then recovered a bit.

Bitcoin managed to gain back a little, but well within its trading range.

SpaceX managed a limp bounce.  It still looks to be in a distribution after the initial IPO pump.

The emptiness of words moves nothing but the hearts that are already bound and pledged to the emptiness of the world. 

Not one thing has changed.  Nothing.  

But what matters the most is well within your ability to control - with repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness.  

“Do not let your hearts be troubled. You trust in God. Trust also in me."

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - To Be A Man Among Beasts

 

"Serve the Lord and be at peace with him, so his goodness will flourish in you. Hear the words from his mouth, and keep his wisdom deep in your heart."   Job 22:21-22

“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him.  We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now.  We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

God beholds you.  He calls you by your name.  He sees you and understands you as He made you.  He knows what is in you, all your peculiar feelings and thoughts, your dispositions and likings, your strengths and your weaknesses.  He views you in your day of rejoicing and in your day of sorrow.  He sympathizes in your hopes and your temptations.  He interests Himself in all your anxieties and remembrances, all the risings and fallings of your spirit.

He encompasses you round and bears you in His arms.  He notes your very countenance, whether smiling or in tears.  He looks tenderly upon you.  He hears your voice, the beating of your heart, and your very breathing.

You do not love yourself better than He loves you.  You cannot shrink from pain more than He dislikes your bearing it; and if He puts it on you, it is as you would put it on yourself, if you would be wise, for a greater good afterwards.

God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission — I may never know it in this life but I shall be told it in the next.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons.  He has not created me for naught.  I shall do good, I shall do His work.  I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him.  Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away.  If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him.  If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him.   He does nothing in vain.  He knows what He is about.  He may take away my friends.  He may throw me among strangers.  He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me — still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are — sinners attempting great things.  Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come.  He can turn all things to our eternal good.  Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.   The more we do, the more shall we trust in Christ; and that surely is no morose doctrine, that leads us to soothe our selfish restlessness, and forget our fears, in the vision of the Incarnate Son of God.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.  Then in His mercy may He give us safe lodging, and a holy rest, and peace at last.”

John Henry Newman

Stocks are defying gravity and riding a wave of last gasp liquidity it seems.

The Trump Administration rejects the reality of the conflict in the Middle East, and substitutes its own.

VIX of course fell.

SpaceX continues to undergo the distribution phase of a 'pump and dump.'

The Dollar chopped sideways, just shy of the 100 handle.

The adults in the room, those who follow the bond markets closely, are making whimpering noises as they see the 10 and 30 year US Bonds climbing in yield to significant levels.

Uncle Sam is running a temperature.

Crude is bouncing up against resistance after its recent paper smackdown.

I think we will be looking back at these prices with nostalgia, in the not too distant future.

Bitcoin is very much in a trading range, and I fail to see anything that it going to be providing it any sustained lift.

To the contrary, if selling in the tech sector intensifies, as I suspect it will, then Bitcoin is going to be retracing and seeking support somewhere south of 50k.

It will be nice to finally have the midterm elections behind us.  Narcissists and oligarchs can become quite volatile when they sense the possible collapse of their fever dreams.  

A person who does not read, who has not explored and reflected upon the thoughts and experiences of those from other lands and times, those gone before us, is left stumbling through life, lacking navigable lights in the darkness, afflicted with what the Buddhists call the three poisons: greed, hate, and delusion. 

And many grow quite comfortable with that impairment, with the notion that their cravings are the principal laws of the world.  And they will destroy all that is the truth, and offends their hollowness. They raise their flags on fields of barbaric self-absorption, and attempt to fill the great hole in their being with things and structures and people whom they consume.

This is where we are today. 

"Those who have faith had better keep in the state of grace, and those who have neither had better find out what they mean, for in the coming age there will be only one way to stop your trembling knees, and that will be to get down on them and pray.  The most important problem in the world today is your soul, for that is what the struggle is about."

Fulton J. Sheen, The Day of the Beast, 1947

You may wish to diversify your exposure to unfolding events, from the usual biased outlets and mouthpieces, because otherwise what is coming it going to hit you square in the face.

This reminds me so much of the early 2000s it is almost unnerving— tech bubbles and war drums fed by lies and deceptions and contrived narratives of hatred and fear.

Who could have seen it coming?

It is now as it was then, and has always been.

We are called to be a man, among beasts. 

Have a pleasant weekend.