Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Wholesale Luxury, Monstrous Vice

 

"Everywhere Rome was failing in her duties as mistress of the civilised world.  Her own internal degeneracy was faithfully reflected in the abnegation of her imperial duties. 

When in any country the small-farmer class is being squeezed off the land; when its labourers are slaves or serfs; when huge tracts are kept waste to minister to pleasure; when the shibboleth of art is on every man's lips, but ideas of true beauty in very few men's souls. 

When the business-sharper is the greatest man in the city, and lords it even in the law courts; when class-magistrates, bidding for high office, deal out justice according to the rank of the criminal; when exchanges are turned into great gambling-houses, and senators and men of title are the chief gamblers; when, in short, 'corruption is universal, when there is increasing audacity, increasing greed, increasing fraud, increasing impurity, and these are fed by increasing indulgence and ostentation.

When a considerable number of trials in the courts of law bring out the fact that the country in general is now regarded as a prey, upon which any number of vultures, scenting it from afar, may safely light and securely gorge themselves; when the foul tribe is amply replenished by its congeners at home, and foreign invaders find any number of men, bearing good names, ready to assist them in robberies far more cruel and sweeping than those of the footpad or burglar' — when such is the tone of society, and such the idols before which it bends, a nation must be fast going down hill.

A more repulsive picture can hardly be imagined.  A mob, a moneyed class, and an aristocracy almost equally worthless, hating each other, and hated by the rest of the world; Italians bitterly jealous of Romans, and only in better plight than the provinces beyond the sea; more miserable than either, swarms of slaves beginning to brood over revenge as a solace to their sufferings; the land going out of cultivation; native industry swamped by slave-grown imports; the population decreasing; the army degenerating; wars waged as a speculation, but only against the weak; provinces subjected to organized pillage; in the metropolis childish superstition, wholesale luxury, and monstrous vice.

The hour for reform was surely come. Who was to be the man?"

A.H. Beesley, The Gracchi Marius and Sulla, 1921

"Nemesis, the goddess of retribution and vengeance, the punisher of pride and hubris, waits impatiently for her meeting with us."

Chalmers Johnson, Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic, 2006

The dollar fell off the 99 handle today, and gold and silver and even bitcoin rallied in response.

Oil rallied, and then fell back to unchanged late in the day.

VIX fell sharply on the stock pop, but was unmoved by their later flop.

The financial system has not been a sound evaluation mechanism of risk and allocator of capital for some time now. 

Over time this erodes the organic growth in the economy, and leads to serious imbalances in the structure of a society.

This is 'bad news.'

In the very long term the only thing that matters is that we have been chosen and redeemed.  I realized that in a profound way not too long ago and I remember my spirit soaring at that realization.

That joy foundered a bit on some trailer tires that resisted many attempts at seating their beads back on their rims, during a hot and bug-lashed, heavily humid afternoon that sends stinging sweat into your eyes in August.  Ratchet straps, starter fluid, pounding with a soft mallet, words my crusty marine sergeant father taught me, yada yada.  

But eventually they too fell to dogged persistence.  Now if only the politicians in Washington could be as malleable in their stubborn resistance to reform.

But you know what I mean.  It's easy to get caught up in the little things, the irritations of the moment.  But at the end of the day, the field has been won for us. And in that our joy is complete.

"And we have come to know and to trust the love that God has for us.  God is love, and those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them."   1 John 4:16-17

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - When Judgement Comes

 

"Because you are proud of heart,
      you think, 'I am a god!
I sit on a god’s throne
      in the heart of the sea.'
But you are a man, not a god;
     yet you pretend
     that you are a god at heart.
Oh yes, you are wiser than Daniel,
     nothing secret is too obscure for you.
By your knowledge and cunning
     you made yourself rich,
     filling your vaults with gold and silver.
Through your great wisdom in trading
you heaped up riches for yourself—
     your heart is haughty because of your riches.
     Therefore thus says the Lord God:
Because you pretend you are a god at heart,
Therefore, I will bring against you
     strangers, the most bloodthirsty of nations.
They shall draw their swords
     against your splendid wisdom,
     and violate your radiance.
They shall thrust you down into the abyss:
     you shall die a violent death
     in the heart of the sea.
Then, face to face with your destroyers,
     will you still say, 'I am a god'?
No, you are a man, not a god,
     handed over to those who will bring you low."

Ezekiel 28:1-9

"From the smallest to the greatest, they are all greedy for gain.  Policy makers and spokesmen alike, they all practice deceit.  They dismiss the pains of my people as though they are not serious.  'Peace, peace, they say, where there is no peace.  Are they ashamed of their lawlessness?  No, they have no shame at all; they do not even know how to blush.  So they will fall among the fallen, and will be brought low when their judgement comes."

Jeremiah 6:13-15


And in the news...

US Diesel crack spread has crossed $100 for the first time in history. It has surged over 140% this year to a record $102.20, showing how expensive diesel has become compared with crude oil. Recent Houthis attack on a Saudi Arabia refinery pushed prices higher. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and disruptions across the Gulf had already squeezed diesel supply.

US inventories have fallen to 107 million barrels, their lowest seasonal level since 1996. This is pushing the food prices higher. Trucks transport over 80% of US agricultural products including dairy, fruit, vegetables and nuts, making distribution more expensive.

Food Inflation is already up by 3% this year. With inventories falling and prices rising, it will get difficult for governments to control inflation globally despite hiking rates.

Stocks declined today, but it seemed to be fairly orderly selling.

This makes me wonder if this is a real adjustment to risk, or just the usual pre-option expiration wash and rinse.

Well, we will see in a day or two..

Gold and silver were hit hard.

VIX rose but in a very 'orderly' manner.

Bitcoin held steady, but if you look at a longer term chart below it is essentially flat-lining.

This is not constructive for crypto creatures like Micro-Strategy, which require a steadily rising price of Bitcoin to keep the machine running. 

And as you can see in the first chart below, MSTR seems to be using share issuance to pay the dividends and the bills.  And is not adding to its Bitcoin inventory.

Absent some change, this looks like a death spiral.

Speaking of spirals, although I do not comment or chart them here, I always keep an eye on the currency and the interest rates of Treasuries.  And the rates on longer term debt in a number of countries, including the US, are flashing warning signs.  

As Carl Quintanilla quoted on X today:

"You are on a bus called the 30-year bond and there is a cliff coming, but you don’t know if it is 100 meters away or 100 miles away,” he said. “You are hoping you can get off the bus before it crashes.”  

The situation in Hormuz is fairly ugly, and distracting from the other ugly situation in Ukraine.

Europe has boxed itself into a natural gas quandary, and it may be a very hard winter if the cold sets in.

Greedy foolish people can do enormous damage if they are given some power and leeway. 

Don Tzu seems to be maxing out.   The shame of the Congress, and to some extent the Supreme Court, in standing idly by and not fulfilling their oaths to defend the Constitution is a profile in cowardice.

And then there is the complicity in a genocide and ethnic cleansing being livestreamed, so that no one cannot say they did not know, except in the most devious of ways.

These are the gods of this world, that some have chosen to worship, or at least accommodate for 'practical reasons'.  

And some of the more publicly 'fervent' Christians have made an evil cult of it, without shame in their betrayal and rebellion.

Such are the times. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - At the Court of Nero

 

"The American economy increasingly serves only a narrow part of society, and America's national politics has failed to put the country back on track through honest, open, and transparent problem solving.  Too many of America's elites-among the super-rich, the CEOs, and many of my colleagues in academia-have abandoned a commitment to social responsibility.  They chase wealth and power, the rest of society be damned."

Jeffrey Sachs, The Price of Civilization, 2012

"Pride gets no pleasure out of having something, only out of having more of it than the next man.  It’s the comparison that makes you proud: the pleasure of being above the rest.  Pride is spiritual cancer: it eats up the very possibility of love, or contentment, or even common sense.”

C. S. Lewis, Mere Christianity, 1944

"As they face failure, arrest, indictment, or dismissal, they will endlessly air their grievances.  Narcissists are natural wound collectors and as such, they have been collecting and nurturing social slights and perceived wrongs just for this occasion.  They will wallow in victimhood claiming they have been relentlessly and needlessly persecuted.  They, of course, expect their attorneys, followers, or enablers to subserviently echo their flatulent claims.

So, what happens in the end?  Difficult to predict.  Each circumstance is different.  Some will kick and flail and disappear for a while, intentionally or thanks to incarceration—biding their time until they can do it all over again.  Others regroup, plan, scheme, and prepare another triumphant entry into the lives of the unsuspecting to victimize them when the opportunity arises.

Others, unfortunately, will seek to do harm as they face a breakup, a divorce, are fired from a job, are outed for their crimes, or are removed from office.  Others will hound, stalk, or just make life intolerable for those they deem responsible.  Their past can often give us insight as to what they might do, but one can never be sure—humans are terribly complex and as with many afflicted with a personality disorder, sensitive to the smallest of unrecognized but catalytic triggers.

In the case of narcissistic cult leaders, the cult members often pay with their lives as they did in Jonestown Guyana when Jim Jones came under investigation.  In interpersonal relationships, violence is always something to be concerned. "

Joe Navarro, When the Narcissist Fails, 2 January 2024

"Seneca had made the bargain that many good men have made when agreeing to aid bad regimes. On the one hand, their presence strengthens the regime and helps it endure. But their moral influence may also improve the regime's behavior or save the lives of its enemies. For many, this has been a bargain worth making, even if it has cost them—as it may have cost Seneca—their immortal soul.

The Rome he has been trained to serve, the Rome of Augustus and Germanicus, was gone. In its place stood Neropolis, ruled by a megalomaniac brat.”

James Romm, Dying Every Day: Seneca at the Court of Nero, 2014

Stocks popped and flopped after yet another phony leak about peace negotiations through Barak David at Axios last night.

Oil appears to be attempting to break out.

The 'crack spreads' which are a measure of the difference in price between paper and physical are blowing out on diesel, and to a lesser extent gasoline.

What is unsustainable will not be sustained.

The use of the 'Overton Window' is straining, with the increasing use of force and fraud, to contain the depravity of those who have chosen to serve the darkness.

“Every man must decide whether he will walk in the light of creative altruism or in the darkness of destructive selfishness.”    Martin Luther King, Strength to Love, 1963

Judgement is coming— even for those who do not believe in it, or that the rules apply to them.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Pantomimes of Empire

 

"The foolish ask nothing better than not to have to understand anything, and they even used to get together and try not to understand, because the last thing of which a person is capable is to be malicious and foolish all by themselves.  Without understanding, they form spontaneously into herds, not according to any particular affinities but in obedience to the petty ideology.  They would far rather kill than have to think."

George Bernanos, Under the Sun of Satan, 1926

"I think that a certain relatively small subset of people are predisposed through both nurture and nature to seek to monopolize the public economy by distorting the rules, in order to gain control over the many through the possession of key assets.

It is not a matter of need or survival or even rational economic preference; it is a pathology, a compulsion, an intense neurosis.  We have seen this happen in large companies and in nations where fear and greed become the dominant forces of societal impulse.  The coup de grâce is often the propagation of power to idiot sons and assorted mediocrities and sycophants, although the inherent instability of the principals is not to be discounted as a destructive force. 

This tendency is kept in check by a balanced system of peer pressure, strong cultural mores, and public laws and regulations which tend to suppress unproductive and outright destructive impulses.  But when the acquisitors gain an undue influence in the system then we have an enormous accumulation of wealth and power in the hands of a few, and a growing tension between sustainability and collapse. 

The concentration of power tends to increase the probability of uncorrected and self-propagating policy errors. This is why the majority passes laws, sanctions, and reforms to prevent a collapse from recurring when the memory of the disaster and its causes is fresh in their minds. Over time the safeguards are weakened and overcome as the public grows complacent, and the cycle is repeated again as it arises from enduring quirks in the variety of human nature."

Jesse, Inequality and the Credit Crisis, 1 September 2008

“The mob believes everything it is told, provided only that it be repeated over and over. Provided too that its passions, hatreds, fears are catered to. The grosser, the bigger, the cruder the lie, the more readily is it believed and followed. The mob has no memory; needless to pretend to any truth: the mob is radically incapable of perceiving it: the mob can never comprehend that its own interests are what is at stake.”

Alexandre Koyré, Réflexions sur le Mensonge, 1943 


Stocks fell off a bit from their rocket rally of yesterday.

The VIX fell, however, and is not at the low of the year.

The Dollar lost a little bit and fell off the 100 handle.

Gold and silver had a little bounce.   Bitcoin not so much.

Things are still simmering and unsettled in both the Ukraine and the Mideast.

The next few weeks are worth watching closely. 

Have a pleasant weekend.