18 October 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Lady or the Tiger - Options Expiring and Consequences Approaching

"Do not be so harsh towards others, so that God will not be equally hard on you.   By the standards with which you judge, so too will you be judged.  And with the measures which you apply to others, so too will they be applied to you.  Why do you look so hard for the failings of others, and completely ignore your own, much greater faults?"

Matthew 7:1-3

"If I speak in the tongues of all men and of angels, but do not have love, I am just a noisy gong or a clanking cymbal. And if I have prophetic powers, and understand all the mysteries and know all things, and if I have faith, even enough to move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing. If I give away all my possessions, and if I suffer so that I may boast about it, but do not have love, I have gained nothing.

Love is patient; love is kind; love is not envious or boastful, or arrogant and hard. It does not insist on having its own way; it is not easily angered or resentful; it does not rejoice in the misfortunes of others, but rejoices always in the truth. It bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, and endures all things.  Love never ends."

1 Corinthians 13:1-8

A key event this weekend, among many geopolitical events I should add, will be the vote on the latest Brexit plan in the British parliament.

Stocks were wobbly again today. The Dow Industrials led the charge lower, fueled by Boeing and Johnson & Johnson.

The results that Netflix announced finally sunk in, and today it gave up all the games of the week.

Smells like teen spirit, all around.

Mike Mulvaney said some things yesterday, repeatedly and in public, that pretty much put the fork in the Trump Administration's narrative about a malign and cynical abuse of US foreign policy.  The jackals themselves, led by Romney and McConnell, are beginning to circle the kill. I don't know how the die hard supporters are spinning this, but it's all over but the lying, and stonewalling, and the histrionics.  And the lucrative G7 meeting given by a no-bid contract to Trump's troubled Doral golf resort.

And on the other hand, someone should tell Hillary to go forward with quiet dignity.  Her continued rantings about being thwarted by Russian agents everywhere is getting to be too much, too sad to watch. The proud and verbally acute can never seem to accept responsibility and blame themselves for their own failings.  And so they invent enemies and conspiracies.

How are the mighty fallen.

I think the markets are going to break, one way or the other, out of this consolidation pattern.  It is not clear to me which direction that may be.

The patterns are ambiguous enough that I would rather lay back and let the markets inform us, rather than trying to predict which way it will go by imposing some system on it.  Perhaps some others can do this.  I cannot.

Although I am still fairly persuaded that we are going to get a major break in the market, near to or exceeding 20%, between now and next July.  There are a number of reasons for this, but most of them revolve around the theme of appearance vs. reality.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.  And we are certainly not there yet, by a long shot.

The US is a thinly disguised oligarchy, and lying and cheating are not only rewarded, they have become fashionable as long as one does not get caught.

So what then are we to do? 
As it says at the bottom of the page on this blog:  "Let us surrender our past to His abundant forgiveness, and trust our future to His loving kindness and tender mercy.  Let us allow ourselves to be fashioned according to His will, not for His sake, but for our own.  Remember to feed the least of His creatures, the birds and the animals.  And be mindful of the hearts of those you meet, encouraging them with a kindness and a smile."
Have a pleasant weekend.

17 October 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - On the Brink, Dancing Blindly - Tail Risk and a Banquet of Consequences

'Tail Risk'
“You cannot play with the animal in you without becoming wholly animal, play with falsehood without forfeiting your right to truth, play with cruelty without losing your sensitivity of mind. He who wants to keep his garden tidy does not reserve a plot for weeds.

Your cravings as a human animal do not become a prayer just because it is God whom you ask to attend to them.

God does not die on the day when we cease to believe in a personal deity. But we die on the day when our lives cease to be illumined by the steady radiance, renewed daily, of a wonder the source of which is beyond all reason.

For all that has been,
thank you.

For all that will be,

Dag Hammarskjöld, Markings

“Above all, don't lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lies comes to a point when he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.

What is hell?   It is the pain of being unable to love.”

Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

"Love does not make you weak, because it is the source of all strength, but it makes you see the nothingness of the illusory strength on which you depended before you knew it."

Léon Bloy

It was another 'risk on' day, although that was barely enough to keep the major indices treading water.

Gold and silver were flattish as the Dollar continued to decline.

The mispricing of risk is due to several factors. The misappropriation of the nation's money supply by the Fed and its Banks looms large. But the awful fiscal policy of Washington, driven by an oligarchy, and the steady drumbeat of propaganda from the corporatist think tanks and their media courtiers is not all that far behind.

Not one thing has changed.   Except perhaps that the Fed has started to apply heavier doses of plaster to cover the rot in the walls and the foundation of the economy.

Personally I think that we are on the brink of a hair-raising sell off, that will seemingly come out of nowhere. The actual 'trigger event' may even seem incidental, although there are plenty of candidates that could be more momentous. But it will have its roots in deception, and the mispricing of risks.

The elite and their courtiers are increasingly at a divergence from reality.  And the many naive and innocent and corruptible who have been slavishly mouthing their slogans and platitudes are in for a major case of cognitive dissonance.

It is one thing to fill your own mind with the dishonest nonsense written for personal gain by con men and demagogues.  It is obviously from a foul source because there is no love in it, only derision, delusion, harshness, and selfishness.

Once we are made to see ourselves and things we have done as they are, the sorrow and repentance that we may feel may be painful to see, especially for those who have led others, such as their children, astray.

Need little, want less, love more.   For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.

16 October 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Things Are What We Say They Are - Stock Market Option Expiration on Friday

Are you going to believe your lying eyes, or me?
"The banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery."

Jesse, July 2009

"He who does not shout the truth when he knows it makes himself the accomplice of liars and forgers."

Charles Péguy

“Man has places in his heart which do not yet exist— and into them enters suffering, in order that they may have life.”

Léon Bloy

"Abide with me. Fast falls the eventide;
The darkness thickens. Lord, with me abide
When other helpers fail, and comforts flee,
Help of the helpless, O Lord abide with me."

Henry Francis Lyte

Stocks were on the wobbles today, as the euphoria over the impending China trade and EU-UK Brexit deals paled a bit in the harsh light of day.

Retail sales missed this morning casting a further pall on the prevailing narrative of The Recovery™.

But it did spark thoughts of the next rate cut, which drove the dollar lower.

After the bell IBM and Netflix both missed their key metrics.  

Netflix initially plunged, but then remarkably and sharply rallied back to the green based on some rosy projections for the future.  Confidence restored! The transformation will be made, from growth unicorn to a 'value stock.'

Smells like teen spirit. Or something like that.

Trumpolini reassures us that the situation in northern Syria is 'nicely under control.'

As a reminder there is a stock option expiration on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.