26 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Elites: Their Judgement, Their Credentials, and Their Privileges

"None are more unjust in their judgments of others than those who have a high opinion of themselves.

Charles Spurgeon

"God's truth judges created things out of love, and Satan's truth judges them out of envy and hatred."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

"Why do you pass judgement on your brothers and sisters?  Why do you seek to despise them?  For some day we will all stand before the judgement seat of God."

Romans 14:10

"In judging others a man labors in vain, is often wrong, and easily sins; but in judging and examining himself, he always labors fruitfully."

Thomas a Kempis

“A proud man is always looking down on things and people; and, of course, as long as you are looking down, you cannot see something that is above you.”

C.S. Lewis

This would be a much happier world if people would just accept the fact that they are human, and  little different from one another— and weak, and erring, and fallen.  And without privilege over their fellows, in the eyes of God.

Then they might repent of their faults and seek forgiveness, rather than spending most of their time judging others, harshly and with presumption, as their inferiors, to justify their own special privileges and compensations which they and those who think like them grant to each other.

Our exceptional markets seem a bit inconstant and inconsistent these days.   It may be difficult to diagnose, but is there any doubt that these US markets have ADHD brought on by repeated sugar highs from the Fed and an appalling lack of stable and steady regulation?

Our judgement of ourselves and others, and our place as a people and a nation in this world, is almost uniformly appalling in its clumsiness and self-serving biases.

Is there any doubt that those who most think themselves to be exceptional are in fact the most thoroughly foolish and blinded by pride?  

See you tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.

25 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Bread and Circuses - No Meaningful Financial or Political Reform

"Some time ago I suggested that this implausible and histrionic Russia-gate investigation fomented by the Clintonistas appears to be a thinly-veiled fishing expedition.   The target is not any significant 'collusion' to throw the election, but much more likely [to be] obstruction of justice, coming off dodgy private real estate deals and assorted financial arrangements involving money laundering..."

Jesse, 11 January 2018

Russiagate was a diversion and a distraction from the real work that needs to be done— that of reforming the political and financial systems and putting an end to this predatory economy and its damaging bubbles.

No one in the public was a winner in this. This was a set piece from the realm of staged spectacles. It is a diversion by and for the elite— bread and circuses.   It engages the passions and numbs the minds to the systemic looting for the benefit of a few, which continues.

The criminal investigations will be conducted by the Southern District of New York.  And those are underway.   Anyone who has followed Donald's career knows how deep into the seamier side of NYC real estate development he has been, with all that this implies.

Stocks failed to plant a close over key support today.

Gold has moved to the top of the short term trend channel on the chart. It either moves higher and breaks out or is likely to retrace some of its recent upwards move. Let's hope for a consolidation and a breakout higher, but be prepared for whatever the market gives us.

Companions are a joy and consolation of life. But sometimes they demand our attention and caring. I was up most of the night with Dolly, who was sicker than at anytime since we had her. The poor little thing was losing it from both ends, and mostly in incovenient places. But as she has settled down and is feeling better, and holding down a little rice and chicken broth, I too will kick back and rest with her. And so I will say no more for now.

There will be precious metals expirations on the Comex this week. They are not for contracts of consequence.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.

Have a pleasant evening.

22 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Sooner or Later a Crash Is Coming— and It May Be Terrific

"It looks like we might have another blow off top in the works.   The tech sector was rampaging higher today.  When in doubt break glass and recycle the last bubble.  Let's see how much more these jokers can squeeze out of this."

Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 21 March 2019

"My cyclical calculations and trend forecasts suggest that July 2020 may be a decisive, if not pivotal, period in our time. I think I may have mentioned this once or twice before."

Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 26 February 2019

"It's probably early days, but now might be the time to start taking precautions against a 2008 class event in the financial markets.   I would suggest it might arrive anytime between now and July 2020.  These sorts of things depend on the magnitude of any 'trigger event,' which is why it is so difficult to forecast with regard to specific dates.  As time goes on the required force for a market moving event decreases until it takes very little to set that ball in motion."

Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 24 July 2018

"Sooner or later a crash is coming.
And it may be terrific."

Roger Babson, Sept. 15, 1929

The antics in support of the Levi-Strauss IPO in the market yesterday were just begging to be shorted into the close.  And I did.  And cashed in today.  I do not trade short term in size much anymore, but sometimes they do almost ring a bell, and it is hard for an old hound dog to just keep laying on the porch.

The US Treasury Yield Curve inverted today for the first time since 2007.  The talking heads were stumbling and mumbling about it.   They just cannot imagine what is coming.

Timing a big event like this is brutal, since there are so many exogenous variables.  And forecasting a notoriously low probability event is rather difficult, even when the probability becomes relatively more probable.

We may move even higher in this markets asset bubble.  Heck, we could even see a real monetary driven asset inflation before this is over, even if there is virtually no organic inflation because of the skewed and corruption financial system.  

But with respect to timing I still like my longer running forecast, suggesting we will see a genuinely significant downside event in the markets, and perhaps in the socio-political system, by July 2020.  although now that seems like an 'outside' date for it.

If December 2018 was really a market 'break' in the manner of March 1929 then we may not even make it to October of this year.

Gold showed the kind of resilience today that one would look for in a safe haven asset.  It moved higher with the Dollar  But keep in mind that in a liquidation event even gold is likely to take a hit. Likely, but it will recover more quickly than most other assets.  Silver will tag along, weighed down by its industrial component.

It appears as though Theresa May has obtained a Brexit reprieve of sorts from the EU. Let's see if we can reset our counter as the situation clarifies.

Let us remember the poor people along the Missouri River who are being flooded out, thanks to the aging and inadequate levees which have crumbled.  We all know why we can't have nice things like the rest of the developed world.   After all, sacrifices must be made.

I am pleased to let you know that another Englishman will be recognized as a saint.   John Henry Newman has been named for canonization, although the exact date for this has not yet been given.   I have been praying and quietly supporting the cause for this since 1983.   And now it seems as though it is finally here.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.

21 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Blind Among the Fortunate - Stocks Celebrate the Levi-Strauss IPO

“There was a certain rich man who was splendidly clothed in purple and fine linen, and who lived each day in luxury.   At his gate lay a poor man named Lazarus, who was covered with sores.  As Lazarus lay there longing for scraps from the rich man’s table, the dogs would come and lick his sores.

Finally, the poor man died and was carried by the angels to be with Abraham.  The rich man also died and was buried, and his soul went to the place of the dead. There, in torment, he saw Abraham in the far distance with Lazarus at his side.

The rich man shouted, ‘Father Abraham, have some pity!  Send Lazarus over here to dip the tip of his finger in water and cool my tongue.  I am in anguish in these flames.’

But Abraham said to him, ‘My son, remember that during your lifetime you had everything you wanted, and Lazarus had nothing.  So now he is here being comforted, and you are in anguish.  And there is a great chasm separating us.  No one can cross over to you from here, and no one can cross over to us from there.’

Then the rich man said, ‘Please, Father Abraham, at least send him to my father’s home.  For I have five brothers, and I want him to warn them so they don’t end up in this place of torment.’

But Abraham said, ‘Moses and the prophets have warned them.  Your brothers can read what they wrote.’

The rich man replied, ‘No, Father Abraham! But if someone is sent to them from the dead, then they will repent of their sins and turn to God.’

But Abraham said, ‘If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’”

Luke 16:19-31

"Heads of the top sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf states, Russia and other emerging markets were in fighting mood in Davos.  Leading the calls for tighter regulation and codes of conduct was Larry Summers, the former US treasury secretary. 'What would happen in a 1992-type situation, he asked, if SWFs were involved in speculating against a currency as George Soros speculated successfully against the pound?   It would create intolerable diplomatic tensions.  We need ex ante assurance that this type of situation will not happen.  That is why we need a code of conduct.'

Not so, retorted the funds. We have always been and remain responsible investors. We do not need any of your codes of conduct imposed on us. On the contrary, it is up to you in the heartland of your famous capitalist system to get your act together.  You have lectured us for decades on the need for tighter bank regulation, anti-money-laundering rules and so on and now you are in a bigger mess than we ever got ourselves into.  It is your banks who are coming cap in hand to us because they made such a mess of their business under your much-touted regulatory regimes.  Get your own houses in order.

Central Banking Publications, 29 January 2008

“Man has places in his heart which do not yet exist— and into them enters suffering, in order that they may have life.”

Léon Bloy

Here is a Lenten meditation at no extra charge today.

The sin of the rich man in the parable of Lazarus was not that he had been given great wealth, even though has no gratitude, and thinks that it is all because of his own merits.   No, his sin is that he allowed his preoccupation with worldly possessions to blind himself to the suffering of Lazarus, his poor brother, who sat every day on his doorstep.  And he gave him nothing.

It was only in the torment of the afterworld that the rich man's eyes were opened, and looking across the great gulf finally sees holy Abraham and Lazarus.  And the first thing that the rich man does is to beg for comfort for himself, and ask for favors.  He feels no repentance, never once saying that he is sorry.  For even as his eyes were opened, his heart remained hardened, and firmly in the grip of his sins.    His sins were the chasm that separated them;  the door to his torment was locked from the inside.

So too, nations that have been blessed can sometimes blind themselves to their excesses and offenses.  And so they misuse their power and wealth and great fortunes, granted to them by God, to oppress and subjugate others, merely to suit their own vain purposes.  They would mount themselves aloft to rule over all.

And in their hardened hearts they hold their rapaciousness high, profanely, as the greatest good, the exceptional—  even as they oppress and plunder and murder.  Until at long last God humbles them, and breaks the backbone of their power.

Let us thank God then, for both our consolations and our trials, which cause us to pause and reflect, and keep a righteous understanding of who we are and whom we serve.  For both good and ill come with the ease of His good Providence, from the endless ocean of His incomprehensible love.

Truly one has come back from the dead and spoken, spoken plainly to we who abuse the weak and murder our prophets, if only we can open our hearts, and listen.

Stocks were in risk on rally mode today, in some part in rejection of the dovish implications of the Fed's statement yesterday, a 'better than expected' Philly Fed number, good financial results from Darden, due largely to The Olive Garden (ugh 🤮 ), and last but certainly not least, in exuberant support for the largest IPO of the year, Levi-Strauss.

It looks like we might have another blow off top in the works.  The tech sector was rampaging higher today.  When in doubt break glass and recycle the last bubble.  Let's see how much more these jokers can squeeze out of this.

Gold and silver were off quite a bit in the morning, but managed to gather most of it back into the close.

The existing deadline for Brexit is in about 8 days, although there is quite a bit of talk about the EU granting a brief extension.  PM Theresa May was blaming Speaker Bercow for her inability to stage a third vote, which she assured the Europeans that would have passed.   Uh huh.

There is quite the nor'easter blowing through here today.  It is bringing heavy rains, and strong winds tomorrow from the back end of the storm.   Dolly has barricaded herself in her blankets and chair, and is not receiving requests to go out in this.  That's fine with me.

Now I am really glad that I did all that lawn work yesterday, spreading lime and lawn soil and grass seed.

Have a pleasant evening.