20 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Zicke Zacke, Zicke Zacke, Hoi Hoi Hoi - Roll Out the Barrel


Frühling in der Schweiz
"In the field of monetary and credit policy, precautionary action to prevent inflationary excesses is bound to have some onerous effects— if it did not, it would be ineffective and futile.   Those who have the task of making such policy don’t expect you to applaud.  The Federal Reserve, as one writer put it after the recent increase in the discount rate,  is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

William McChesney Martin,  Speech to Investment Bankers Association, October 1955


Ein Prosit, Ein Prosit, Der Gemütlichkeit
Ein Prosit, Ein Prosit, Der Gemütlichkeit
Eins, zwei, Drei g'suffa!
Zicke, zacke, zicke, zacke, hoi, hoi, hoi,
Zicke, zacke, zicke, zacke, hoi, hoi, hoi,
Prosit!

FOMC Statement, March 20, 2019

Stocks were stumbling this morning, with the financials being a general drag on things, while tech and the new era was a little more resilient

The Fed surprised the markets a bit with their dovish statement at 2:00 PM.

And so the Dollar and the Treasury yield took a dive, and stocks and gold/silver took off higher. It was a remarkably sharp reaction.

Fed Chair Jay Powell must have used the word 'patient' about thirty times in his press conference.

But, somewhat ominously, stocks were not able to hold that sugar high into the close.

The financial sector continued to be a drag on the indices, pulling down the SP 500, even as tech managed to hold some ground.

Ominous if stocks cannot rebound tomorrow.

I am given to understand from the young man that they are expecting mass demonstrations in London this weekend.   I made some day trip suggestions as he is still there on spring break.

Any number of things are weighing on stocks. I think you know what they are, even if the mainstream media doesn't.

Today is the first day of Spring. And I spent all morning again working in the yard, and loved it. I only came back in for the Fed's statement.

Have a pleasant evening.






19 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Stocks Looking Toppy - FOMC Tomorrow


"The more people rationalize cheating, the more it becomes a culture of dishonesty. And that can become a vicious, downward cycle. Because suddenly, if everyone else is cheating, you feel a need to cheat, too."

Stephen Covey


"There are six things the Lord hates, no, seven that are detestable to him:
     proud eyes,
     a lying tongue,
     hands that shed innocent blood,
     a heart that devises wicked schemes,
     feet that are quick to rush into evil,
     a false witness whose mouth pours out lies
       and most of all, a person who stirs up conflicts in a community."

Proverbs 6:16-19


"Be not deceived—  God is not mocked.  For whateverr a person sows, that they shall also reap."

Galatians 6:7

Stocks are looking very toppy, and short term overbought. Particularly tech.  That does not mean that they cannot go higher.

We may have reached that point when most nearly everyone is full of baloney.   It seems to happen every generation or so.  

FOMC tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.





18 March 2019

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Una Furtiva Lagrima - FOMC on Wednesday


“There are so many ways of escaping from that which one fears, and not the least of these is hatred.”

Philip Kerr, Berlin Noir


“We have been silent witnesses of evil deeds; we have been drenched by many storms; we have learnt the arts of equivocation and pretence; experience has made us suspicious of others and kept us from being truthful and open; intolerable conflicts have worn us down and even made us cynical.  

Are we still of any use?  What we shall need is not geniuses, or cynics, or misanthropes, or clever tacticians, but plain, honest, and straightforward men.  Will our inward power of resistance be strong enough, and our honesty with ourselves remorseless enough, for us to find our way back to simplicity and straightforwardness?”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Letters and Papers from Prison

Stocks were able to grind higher led by the SP 500 futures.

Tech was looking a bit overdone.

The Dollar drifted a bit lower, with gold and silver holding their own with a small gain.

The FOMC will be meeting this week. It is highly unlikely that they will actually do anything with rates, but watch for their wording on Wedgnesday.

A dovish lean could cause some movement in gold and the Dollar, and maybe in stocks, all things being equal.

Today was a great day for working outside, and that is what I did for the better part of it.

Have a pleasant evening.




If memory serves the queen and I saw Pavarotti perform this at The Met, many years ago.

L'elisir d'amore: Una furtiva lagrima
(English translation)

Softly a furtive teardrop fell,
shadowed her sparkling eyes;
Seeing the others follow me
has caused her jealous sighs.

What is there more to prize?
What more than this could I prize?
Sighing, she loves me,
I saw that she loves me.

Could I but feel her heart on mine,
breathing that tender sigh!
Could my own sighing comfort her,
and whisper in sweet reply!
Her heart on mine, as heart to heart we sigh.
So tenderly we'd share a sweet reply!

Heaven, I then could die;
no more I'd ask you, I'd ask you,
ah! heaven, I, then, I then could die;
no more I'd ask you, I'd ask you.
I then could die, I then could die of love.

17 March 2019

A Meditation For the Faithful in Their Times of Temptation, Trial and Troubles


As we know, having heard and read this many times before, the saving grace and defense for the faithful is to be found in love.  For love opens the heart to the three great gifts: repentance, forgiveness, thankfulness.
Nor will love be seen coming from the hearts of those who are fallen into wickedness: they are the fruit of hate, deceit, greed, fear, pride, possession, and aggression. And they will not only forsake love by washing their hands of it, they will eventually come to condemn it, and persecute it— and thereby condemn themselves.

For the people of God love is the touchstone of faith, the way to know if what we believe is with Him, or from something else; if we are walking with Him, or with something else; if the one who speaks is speaking for Him, or for something else; if we are keeping Him in our hearts, or something else; if we love Him, or ourselves, or something else.

Love does not speak with hate or fear or derision, but with the fullness of existence which is joy and mercy.   Love is ridiculed and trampled upon by that which is in opposition to His creation.

When you are in doubt or confusion about what is true and what is false, look for the light of love. This is the hallmark of the spirit in the world.  And if it is not there, if an act is wrapped in the hardness of pride, disguised even as an elaborate ritual observance and Pharisaical pride, then you will know what it truly is. It is a sin against the spirit.

Jesse, Love Is the Refuge for the Way
If the words of others are full of anger and wrath, turning even simple differences into sources of hatred and division, then we know that they are not from the Lord, but from the divider.   We know that in these days the fallen will speak through their followers with cleverness and well crafted arguments, so as to persuade many.  They are able to imitate wisdom and sway the minds of even the otherwise faithful with clever speeches woven from passionate hatreds.

But they will not be able to counterfeit love, because it has become alien to them.  They will have none of it in their hearts, for it is a poison to the darkness and the pride which they serve, whether they realize it fully or not. 
"I urge you, brothers and sisters, to be wary of those who cause divisions and undermine the faithful, in opposition to the teaching that you have learned.  Avoid them.  For such people do not serve our Lord, but their own appetites. And by clever words and flattery they deceive the hearts of the innocent and naive."

Romans 16:17-18

"Dividers like this speak evil about things that are different, 'the other,' or which they do not understand.  Like instinctive animals, they follow wherever their passions lead them, and so they bring about their destruction.  What sorrow awaits them.  For they follow in the footsteps of Cain, who killed his own brother.  Like Balaam, they deceive other people for money.  And like Korah, they destroy themselves with their rebellious natures.

If they eat with you in your fellowship meals of the Lord’s love, they are hidden and dangerous reefs that can shipwreck you.   They are shameless shepherds who care only for themselves. They are like clouds blowing over the land but not giving any rain.  They are like wild waves of the sea, which churn up foam with their shameful deeds.  They are orphaned stars, doomed to wander forever in blackest darkness.

People like this are detractors and complainers, living only to satisfy their desires. They are loudly boastful and arrogant, bragging loudly about themselves, and flattering others to get what they want."

Jude 1:10-13,16

"Put on then, as God's chosen ones, holy and beloved, compassionate hearts, kindness, humility, meekness, and patience, bearing with one another.   And, if one has a complaint against another, forgiving each other; as the Lord has forgiven you, so you also must forgive.  And above all these put on love, which binds everything together in perfect harmony. And let the peace of Christ rule in your hearts, to which indeed you were called in one body.  And be thankful."

1 Colossians 3:12-15

"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities and powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."

Ephesians 6:12

"Those among the fortunate who are not, in the rigorous sense, damned, can understand poverty, because they are poor themselves, after a fashion; but they cannot understand destitution.   Capable of giving alms, perhaps, but incapable of stripping themselves bare, they will be moved, to the sound of beautiful music, at Jesus’s sufferings, but His Cross, the reality of His Cross, will horrify them.  They want it all out of gold, bathed in light, costly and of little weight; pleasant to see, hanging from a woman’s beautiful throat."

Léon Bloy

"Many people act as if they hated the cross which is our salvation.   With tears in my eyes I tell you now that they may be lost, for ever.  For their belly is the god that they worship.  They boast with pride about things of which they should be ashamed. They think only about the privileges and glories of this world. But we belong to heaven."

Phillipians 3:18-20

"And because of the increase in wickedness, the love of most will grow cold.  But those who stand, firmly to the end, will be saved."

Matthew 24:12

"When you pray, you come into His presence.  Now reflect on yourself, what your feelings are in coming.  They are these: you seem to say— I am in myself nothing but a sinner, a man of unclean lips and earthly heart.  I am not worthy to enter into His presence.  I am not worthy of the least of all His mercies.  I know He is All-holy, yet I come before Him; I place myself under His pure and piercing eyes, which look me through and through, and discern every trace and every motion of evil within me.  Why do I do so?

First of all, for this reason.  To whom should I go?  What can I do better?  Who is there in the whole world that can help me?  Who that will care for me, or pity me, or have any kind thought of me, if I cannot obtain it of Him?

I know He is of purer eyes than to behold iniquity; but I know again that He is All-merciful, and that He so sincerely desires my salvation that He has died for me.  Therefore, though I am in a great strait, I will rather fall into His hands, than into those of any creature.

This is the feeling in which we come to confess our sins, and to pray to God for pardon and grace day by day; and observe, it is the very feeling in which we must prepare to meet Him when He comes visibly.

If indeed we have habitually lived to the world, then truly it is natural we should attempt to fly from Him whom we have pierced.  Then may we well call on the mountains to fall on us, and on the hills to cover us.  But if we have lived, however imperfectly, yet habitually, in His fear, if we trust that His Spirit is in us, then we need not be ashamed before Him.

We shall then come before Him, as now we come to pray—with profound abasement, with awe, with self-renunciation, still as relying upon the Spirit which He has given us, with our faculties about us, with a collected and determined mind, and with hope."

John Henry Newman