15 August 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Don't Get Out of the Boat - Option Expiration on Friday

 

"Hot money seeks out the conscious mispricing of risk. Capital, in the form of both money and personal talent, increasingly flows into malinvestment and the gaming of markets. The productive economy languishes, left wanting for the lack of creative resources and attention. The bubble rises to unsustainable valuations— and fails, and a nation's capital is consumed.

The next five years are not about winning, but surviving."

Jesse, The Men Who Sold the World, 5 August 2019


"He who sells what isn't his'n,
Must buy it back or go to prison."

Daniel Drew


"When we look back on this period in time with the perspective of history, we will see markets dominated by control frauds and mispricing of risk that will seem painfully obvious.  Why do we not see this now?   Why did so few see it coming 2007, and in 2000?  Perhaps because the money is too good, and our societal judgement is too corrupted, often willfully so.  Bubbles have a surprising resiliency, as does evil in a hardened heart.   And for the same reasons."

Jesse, April 2021


"This place is like somebody's memory of a town, and the memory is fading. It's like there was never anything here but jungle."

Rust Cohle, True Detective

Stocks managed to rally today despite, or perhaps because of, the stunningly bad Empire State Manufacturing Index.

We don't need no stinking real economy.  We just need more easy Fed money.

Gold and silver were hit hard, and the Dollar rallied.

And it turned out to be a risk on day.

Run, bully run.

Option Expiration for August on Friday. 

For the rest of the year, remember, never get out of the boat.

Have a pleasant evening.


12 August 2022

Stocks and Precious Metal Charts - Without Shame or Limits - The Gathering Storm

 

"A confident, aggressive delivery style - often larded with jargon, clichés, and flowery phrases - makes up for the lack of substance and sincerity in their interactions with others.  They are masters of impression management; their insight into the psyche of others combined with a superficial - but convincing - verbal fluency allows them to change their personas skillfully as it suits the situation and their game plan.  They are known for their ability to don many masks, change 'who they are' depending upon the person with whom they are interacting, and make themselves appear likable to their intended victim."

Paul Babiak and Robert Hare, Snakes in Suits


"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come."

Victor Hugo, Histoire d'un Crime


"The barbarian hopes — and that is the mark of him, that he can have his cake and eat it too.  He will consume what civilization has slowly produced after generations of selection and effort, but he will not be at pains to replace such goods, nor indeed has he a comprehension of the virtue that has brought them into being.  We sit by and watch the barbarian.  We tolerate him in the long stretches of peace, we are not afraid.  We are tickled by his irreverence; his comic inversion of our old certitudes; we laugh.  But as we laugh we are watched by large and awful faces from beyond, and on these faces there are no smiles.

The real interest of watching the Barbarian is not the amusement derivable from his antics, but the prime doubt whether he will succeed or no, whether he will flourish.  He is, I repeat, not an agent, but merely a symptom, yet he should be watched as a symptom.  It is not he in his impotence that can discover the power to disintegrate the great and ancient body of Christendom, but if we come to see him triumphant we may be certain that that body, from causes much vaster than such as he could control, is furnishing him with sustenance and forming for him a congenial soil—and that is as much as to say that we are dying."

Hilaire Belloc, This and That and the Other


"It is very odd that the unhappiness of the world is so often brought about by small men."

Erich Maria Remarque, All Quiet on the Western Front

Stocks were reaching for a high note today, and managed to go out near the highs.

Gold and silver were sharply higher.

The Dollar gained.

The VIX declined.

Mixed signals indeed. 

Storm warnings.

Have a pleasant weekend.


11 August 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Perspectives May Vary

 

"The technocrats at the helm of the Titanic have more than a hunch that the vessel is accelerating towards the iceberg.  Having run out of policy bullets, they have opted to promote a continuous programme of fear and propaganda in a bid to manage the unmanageable. Crucially, they know what to most of us appears counterintuitive: that the breakdown of our obsolete mode of production can only be delayed through 1) A steady stream of global emergencies, 2) The controlled inflationary demolition of the increasingly unproductive real economy, and 3) The authoritarian makeover of liberal democracy.

Joining the dots means understanding that the purpose of the Ukrainian emergency is to keep the money printer switched on while blaming Putin for worldwide economic downturn. 

Let us not forget that the stock market is a sort of derivative of the debt market, which therefore needs to be handled with extreme care. While the 'assisted suicide' of the real economy via negative supply shocks exacerbates consumer price inflation, the latter provides temporary relief to the mega debt bubble, thus postponing the crash.

The bottom line is that if Central Bank monetary injections were to end, a rapid increase in key interest rates would threaten a market crash, with defaults across the globe. So, either everyone plays according to the script, or the whole show is cancelled, and the system with it."

Fabio Vighi, Money Without Value In a Rapidly Disintegrating World

"The social principles of Christianity preach cowardice, self-contempt, abasement, submission, humility, in a word all the qualities of the canaille.”

Karl Marx

"It seems that under the overwhelming impact of rising power, humans are deprived of their inner independence and, more or less consciously, give up establishing an autonomous position toward the emerging circumstances.  The fact that the foolish person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent.  In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with him as a person, but with slogans, catchwords, and the like that have taken possession of him. He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being. Having thus become a mindless tool, the foolish person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy human beings.

Only the humble believe in Him and rejoice that God is so free and so marvelous that He does wonders where people despair, that He takes what is little and lowly and makes it marvelous. And that is the wonder of all wonders, that God loves the lowly. God is not ashamed of the lowliness of human beings. God marches right in. He chooses people as his instruments and performs his wonders where one would least expect them. God is near to lowliness; He loves the lost, the neglected, the unseemly, the excluded, the weak and broken."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

"Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions.  It is the opium of the people."

Karl Marx, Critique of Hegel's Philosophy of Right, 1843

"But in truth the whole course of Christianity from the first, when we come to examine it, is but one series of troubles and disorders.  Every century is like every other, and to those who live in it seems worse than all times before it.  The Church is ever ailing, and lingers on in weakness.

Religion seems ever expiring, schisms dominant, the light of Truth dim, its adherents scattered.  The cause of Christ is ever in its last agony, as though it were but a question of time whether it fails finally this day or another.  The Saints are ever all but failing from the earth, and Christ all but coming; and thus the Day of Judgment is literally ever at hand.

God alone knows the day and the hour when that will at length be, which He is ever threatening; meanwhile, thus much of comfort do we gain from what has been hitherto,—not to despond, not to be dismayed, not to be anxious, at the troubles which encompass us.  They have ever been; they ever shall be; they are our portion. 

'The floods are risen, the floods have lift up their voice, the floods lift up their waves. The waves of the sea are mighty, and rage horribly; but yet the Lord, who dwelleth on high, is mightier.'"

John Henry Newman, Via Media, Feb. 24, 1837

“Religion used to be the opium of the people.  To those suffering humiliation, pain, illness, and serfdom, religion promised the reward of an after life.  But now, we are witnessing a transformation: a true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, we are not going to be judged.”

Czeslaw Milosz, Discreet Charm of Nihilism

"Sometimes God must first break a heart to enter it.  And it is what remains afterwards, when the crisis is passed, that offers us the way to becoming fully human.   And we are then called to stand up and witness to the fully human life, in grace that is given, not cheaply by ourselves, but by our resolve and determination to follow Him in our calling.  Where there is sickness bring healing, where there is despair bring hope.  Little acts of goodness spread like ripples in a pond.   A candle in the darkness allows others to find and ignite their own— and then there is light."

Jesse, Resist the Temptation to Despair,  26 October 2016

"Humanism was not wrong in thinking that truth, beauty, liberty, and equality are of infinite value, but was wrong in thinking that we can get them for ourselves, without grace."

Simone Weil

 Stocks rallied hard this morning on the better-than-expected PPI numbers.

But alas, the bubblonians could not maintain their momentum, and stocks drifted down into the red or slight better than unchanged.

Gold and silver lost ground.

VIX rose slightly.

The Dollar chopped sideways after losing all its overnight gains on the PPI number.

Have a pleasant evening.