Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - All Is Well

 

"It is not possible to found a lasting power upon injustice, perjury, and treachery.  These may, perhaps, succeed at first, and limp along on hope for awhile with a flourishing appearance.  But time betrays their weakness, and they eventually fall into ruin of their own designs."

Demosthenes, Orations Against Philip of Macedon, 4th century BC

"It was incredible.  It was distressing to me how simple and outrageous it was.  It wasn't so complicated that you said, 'Wow, at least they're smart in the way they're doing it.'  It was simple.  It was brazen.  The evidence of it was overwhelming.  It's just that it hadn't been revealed to the public, and that's why could get away with it.  One of the things that is eminently clear from our investigation is that all the compliance departments, all the self-regulation is nothing. They watched it, but they did nothing."

Eliot Spitzer, The Wall Street Fix, March 16, 2003

"The economy - once a great scatter of small productive units in autonomous balance, has become dominated by two or three hundred giant corporations, administratively and politically interrelated.  The political order, once a decentralized set of several dozen states with a weak spinal cord, has become a centralized executive establishment which has taken up into itself many powers previously scattered.  The military order, once a slim establishment in a context of distrust fed by state militia, has become the largest and most expensive feature of government.

The American elite does not have any real image of peace — other than as an uneasy interlude existing precariously by virtue of the balance of mutual fright.  The only seriously accepted plan for peace is the fully loaded pistol.  In short, war or a high state of war-preparedness is felt to be the normal and seemingly permanent condition of the United States."

C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite, 1956

"Be glad as children, as the birds of heaven.  And do not let the sins of men confound you in your doings.  Do not fear that they will wear away your work and hinder its being accomplished.  Do not say, 'Sin is mighty, wickedness is mighty, evil environment is mighty, and we are lonely and helpless, and evil environment is wearing us away and hindering our good work from being done.'  Of the pride of Satan what I think is this: it is hard for us on earth to comprehend it, and therefore it is easy to fall into error and to share in it, even imagining that we are doing something grand and fine."

Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov, pages 407-8, 1880


Stocks were slumping a bit today, but found support at 33 Liberty Street in New York.

Three ships in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz were 'hit by projectiles' today. 

Gold and silver were hit by selling as the Dollar had a little boost into the 99 handle.

VIX is meandering around, and might be coiling up for a move.

Bitcoin managed to hang on to the 70k handle.   

There is still some time to make provisions for the admittedly low probability of more severe disruptions to your daily lives, in the manner of the Covid lockdown.

No surprise, the movie 'Melania' is the number one movie sensation on Amazon Prime.   I am going to wait for the RiffTrax release to watch it. 

As in every war, the governments are covering up negative news, and promoting the messages that they wish for you to believe. 

And in this case our elites are engaging in some highly lucrative insider trading at almost every opportunity they can create.

Shameless, and without honor.  These are the fruits of moral hazard. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

When the Narcissist Fails

 

This is an extended quote from a prior post.  

I want to make it available again as a standalone posting, and include a link to the original piece online. 

We may find it informative now and in the days ahead.  It does sound like a couple people with whom I worked large corporations many years ago. 

There are certainly narcissists, and those with sociopathic tendencies, that are attracted to powerful positions in politics and business, in every country and at all times.  

And they are certainly out there today.  The Epstein files are affirming this to be the case.

To refresh our understanding: 

"A malignant narcissist is someone with an extreme form of narcissism that combines intense self-focus with a taste for manipulation, cruelty, and control.  Unlike the classic narcissist, who might just crave admiration, malignant narcissists are out to dominate and even harm others to get what they want.  They rarely have any empathy, often blame others, and sometimes display hostile or antisocial behaviors.  This combination makes them particularly toxic and often leaves others emotionally drained or hurt."       Alexandra Hall, Traits that Scream, Stay Away, The Mind Journal

What might we expect to happen when a malignant narcissist begins to encounter frustration, and experiences a failure to achieve their business and personal objectives?

"As with many personality disorders, those who are severely flawed of character, but especially the narcissist, when they face public disgrace, when they are outed as criminals or for their misbehavior, or when they fail in a very public way—that is when they become metastable, placing us as family, friends, co-workers, corporations, the public, or a nation in greatest danger.  When things begin to sour for the narcissist, here is what we can expect:

1.  They will falsely claim that everything is fine and that there is nothing wrong.  They will try to first misdirect us or claim there is nothing to the allegations or circumstances.

2.   If evidence is presented, they will seek to have it invalidated or claim that it is false, fake, or a product of vague conspiracies, but most certainly not true.

3.   Any evidence presented, and those that present it will be attacked aggressively and vindictively.  The better the evidence, the more aggressive the attack.  Individuals who are doing the right thing by reporting criminal acts, unethical behavior, or failings are to be discredited, humiliated, hounded, and bullied—not even their families are to be spared if need be.  The narcissist will engage supporters or enablers to simultaneously attack those who offer proof or evidence, even if it embarrassingly exposes their poodle-like behavior as that of spineless sycophants.

4.   Foolproof evidence will be portrayed as false and the result of pettiness, jealousies, bad actors, malicious individuals, negativity, haters, enemies, losers, conspirators, opposition, gain seekers, the faithless, or as we are seeing now in American politics, 'fake news' or 'deep state' actors.  There is always a large constellation of people to blame, the narcissist casts wide to see which vacuous claim resonates, especially with their supporters.

5.   As they lash out with vindictiveness, the malignant narcissist will continue to talk about themselves in glowing terms; irrespective of their actual situation, as they are incapable of introspection, much less contriteness.  They will trumpet their greatness, their real or imagined achievements, their faux infallibility, and even portray themselves as worthy of being revered rather than reviled.

6.   They will seek to find someone to blame for their troubles or downfall, preferably someone that cannot defend themselves.  A scapegoat is always useful and when there is not a real one, one will be invented.  If they are not promoted or fired, it is because a cabal at work was against them. If they cheat their business partners, it was because they deserved it. If the wife gets the kids in a divorce settlement, it is because of her dastardly attorney, not his abominable behavior. If they lose an election it is because of campaign managers, unappreciative voters, trickery, fraud, or some other kind of malfeasance on the part of a conspiracy.  Conspiracies are useful to the narcissist because they conveniently require no evidence.  As they are not married to the truth, they will prattle countless baseless reasons that all point away, never at themselves.

7.   As circumstances become dire, the narcissist will not take any responsibility—ever.  Anything that has gone wrong is the responsibility of others.  They will blame spouses as undeserving of their greatness, ignorant colleagues who just don’t measure up, the disloyal, those who abide by rules and laws because ironically, they abide by rules and laws, or those that just clearly did not understand the very specialness of the narcissist.  Everyone, and I mean everyone from people long gone, to the peripherally connected, to the earthly departed will be blamed for the failure or downfall of the narcissist.  Once more it is never their fault.

8.   In the process of casting blame, even the most loyal and stalwart will be discarded and denigrated if needed with reptilian indifference.  For the malignant narcissist, there is only the 'good' — those that provide blind, unwavering loyalty and who are useful, and everyone else who is an enemy, useless, and thus 'bad.'  Whether you are in or out, good or bad, is not determined by history, by friendship, sacrifices, or how well you have performed in the past—it is determined by the capricious and selfish needs of the narcissist, and that can change in a moment.

9.   Expect lies to increase and to be repeated exponentially.  They will, even in light of factual evidence to the contrary, lie more profusely and adamantly.  Lies are and always will be the number one tool of the malignant narcissist.  The only difference now is that in facing failure or public ridicule, the lies must increase in frequency and audacity to the point of incredulity.  The narcissist will expect supporters, the unethical, and enablers to lie for them or even create plausible alibis.  That they imperil others by compelling them to lie is the collateral damage the malignant narcissist does as they thrash in despair when they are failing or caught.

10.   And while lies will increase, so too will be the need to devalue others in order to further value themselves.  They will attack everyone and anyone in the most vicious and vindictive ways.  This is when we see their rage come through.  Not just anger, but unbridled rage.  They will say things that shock the conscience and they expect everyone to swallow what they say, much as their enablers do.  The most decent of persons will be attacked, mocked, ridiculed, and turned into a human chew-toy as the narcissist unleashes untethered rage and hatred.  They will dip down into a bottomless cauldron of antipathy and like an arterial spurt, will spew this toxic brew far and wide with metronomic regularity.

11.   The malignant narcissist, lacking guilt or a conscience, is only concerned with respect and not being publicly shamed.  Any kind of public embarrassment will cause them further anger, further rage, further attacks, further unethical comportment, and unprecedented incivility.

12.   If the narcissist is going to be brought down, they will also seek to bring everyone else around them down to vindictively make them suffer.  How the narcissist vilifies, lashes out, or destroys others (spouse, friends, business partners, workmates, the general public) is up to the morbid creativity and depravity of the malignant narcissist, the viable tools they have available, and of course how dire or desperate the situation.  The internet and social media are certainly useful as lives can be ruined with a single tweet.  But so are guns and rifles, poison, and even assassins for hire.  And if they command a country, they can put the security organs or the military to work on their behalf.

13.   In certain situations, as the end nears, the suffering of others is paramount to the malignant narcissist.  It is their way of elevating themselves—sick as that sounds—by malevolently paying back society with even more suffering.  As they lash out, they will show no concern or empathy because they have none.  If others are suffering because of their actions, the narcissist simply does not care.  Lacking a conscience or any kind of remorse, much like Robert Hare’s psychopath, they sleep very well at night while everyone else is anxious, worried, stressed, physically or psychologically traumatizes all the while nervously and justifiably pondering what further malevolence will take place.

14.   As they face failure, arrest, indictment, or dismissal, they will endlessly air their grievances.  Narcissists are natural wound collectors and as such, they have been collecting and nurturing social slights and perceived wrongs just for this occasion.  They will wallow in victimhood claiming they have been relentlessly and needlessly persecuted.  They, of course, expect their attorneys, followers, or enablers to subserviently echo their flatulent claims.

So, what happens in the end?  Difficult to predict.  Each circumstance is different.  Some will kick and flail and disappear for a while, intentionally or thanks to incarceration—biding their time until they can do it all over again.  Others regroup, plan, scheme, and prepare another triumphant entry into the lives of the unsuspecting to victimize them when the opportunity arises.  

Others, unfortunately, will seek to do harm as they face a breakup, a divorce, are fired from a job, are outed for their crimes, or are removed from office.  Others will hound, stalk, or just make life intolerable for those they deem responsible. Their past can often give us insight as to what they might do, but one can never be sure—humans are terribly complex and as with many afflicted with a personality disorder, sensitive to the smallest of unrecognized but catalytic triggers.

In the case of narcissistic cult leaders, the cult members often pay with their lives as they did in Jonestown Guyana when Jim Jones came under investigation.  In interpersonal relationships, violence is always something to be concerned. "

Joe Navarro, FBI Behavioural Analysis Veteran, When the Narcissist Fails, Psychology Today, 2 January 2024

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Illuminating Reality of the Spirit

 

“There are only two kinds of people in the end — those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, in the end, 'Thy will be done.' All that are in Hell choose it. Without that self-choice there could be no Hell.”

C.S. Lewis, The Great Divorce, 1945

"It is never a minor thing to know God’s will and not do it. God calls this sin. At times we deceive ourselves into thinking that good intentions equal obedient actions. They do not. A good intention without corresponding activity is disobedience. When we encounter God and He gives us a direction, it is not enough to write down the date in our spiritual journal, or even to tell our friends and church of our 'decision.' God’s call is not to make a decision but to obey! Deciding to obey is not equal to obeying. A good intention without corresponding activity is disobedience."

Henry Blackaby, Experiencing God, 2007

"Expedient amorality is de rigueur these days among the entitled class of power brokers who serve the system, which in their minds is themselves, as a privileged, ruling class.  Capitalism does not demand that we destroy human lives for the sake of maximizing profits using any and all means which that end justifies.  The Market is not an end to itself.  The Market is not God. 

This is beyond capitalism.  It is a pernicious form of selfishness and self-indulgence, a privileged arrogance.  It is as old as Babylon, and evil as sin."

Jesse, The Careerists and the Banality of Evil, 24 July 2012

“Your cravings as a human animal do not become a prayer just because it is God whom you ask to attend to them. God does not die on the day when we cease to believe in a personal deity. But we die on the day when our lives cease to be illumined by the steady radiance, renewed daily, of a wonder the source of which is beyond all reason."

Dag Hammarskjöld, Markings, 1963

"Returning to the question of hell, whether it is empty or not: unfortunately, I fear that many souls go there, all those who persevere in their choice of distancing themselves from God to the end. Being in the kingdom of hate, damned souls are subjected to the torment of the demons and to the sufferings they reciprocally inflict on one another. In the course of my exorcisms I have understood that there is a hierarchy of demons, just as there is with angels. More than once I have found myself involved with demons who were possessing a person and who demonstrated a terror toward their leaders.

The final criterion of our judgment will be the love that we have had toward God and toward our brothers and sisters. How, then, will this particular judgment occur? At times, I run into persons who are convinced that immediately after death they will meet Jesus in person and that He will give them a piece of His mind for some of their dolorous affairs. Frankly, I do not think that it will happen like this. Rather, I believe that, immediately after death, each of us will appear before Jesus, but it will not be the Lord who will review our lives and examine the good and the bad each of us has done. We ourselves shall do it, in truth and honesty.

Each one will have before himself the complete vision of his life, and he will immediately see the real spiritual state of his soul and will go where his situation will bring him. It will be a solemn moment of self-truth, a tremendous and definitive moment, as definitive as the place where we shall be sent. Let us consider the case of the person who goes to purgatory.

It will involve the sorrow of not immediately going to paradise that will make him understand that his purification on earth was not complete, and he will feel the immediate need of purifying himself. His desire of acceding to the vision of God will be strong, and the desire for liberation from the weight of the pains accumulated during his earthly life will be compelling."

Gabrielle Amorth, An Exorcist Describes Death and Judgement, 25 October 2019

Stocks did their usual wartime boogie woogie today, ending in a big pop n' flop.

Bessent and his Band of Merry Pranksters are pushing the markets around using the futures, a tactic that was pioneered by Robert Rubin when he was the Treasury Secretary.  If you don't believe me, go look it up.

Gold and silver rallied and then fell back a little.  They seem to be reacting to the gyrations of the dollar.

VIX fell back to the 20 EMA.  

We will be getting some consumer inflation data tomorrow.  It is for February and is already outdated by the onset of this latest military adventure.

Almost nothing that comes out of the Trump Administration is true, especially if it involves money, shameless scandals, or brazen acts of lawlessness.   They tend to make statements during the day to boost the markets that later prove to be fictional.  

The risk markets are very important symbols of Trumpian triumphalism.

As Brian Allen noted this evening:

The last 30 minutes on Wall Street:  The US Energy Secretary posted that a ship had safely transited the Strait of Hormuz.  Markets surged.  Oil tanked.  Hope briefly entered the room.  Then he deleted the tweet.  Markets reversed.  Oil pumped back up. Then Karoline Leavitt confirmed: no ship has gone through the Strait."

Amateur hour, from top the bottom. 

The premises that caused them to start this military conflict were clearly not true, which just about any informed observers outside of DC would have known.  They exist in an echo chamber of delusions and lies.  

Their strategy and preparations are entirely ineffective and inadequate, ripe with unintended consequences.  This military action, marked by an astonishing violation of international and US law, may be viewed by history on a par with the ill-conceived and disastrous Operation Barbarossa.

This is likely to exert highly negative pressures on the global economy, of course including the US.  They may try to downplay and diminish them in the media and by their statements.  But the immense risk and lack of effective planning and control in this operation is apparent to anyone who is willing to accept the truth from whatever source.

And the fog of war is spreading out from Foggy Bottom. 

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Of Black Swans and Cooked Goose

 

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that any one who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter.  The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. 

Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seat at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war.  Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance. ”

Winston Churchill, My Early Life 1930, p. 229

"The Commonwealth of Rome grew great by the misery of the rest of mankind.  The Romans, like others as soon as they grew rich, grew corrupt; and in their corruption sold the lives and freedoms of themselves, and of one another.”

Samuel Johnson, Review of Memoirs of the Court of Augustus, 1756

"Trust in God, but everyone else shows the data.  Check the facts and the underlying assumptions.  The reason should be obvious, but people deal with the complexities of life by using assumptions, which are a kind of shorthand way of breaking reality down into manageable chunks.  Everyone does it. 

But it is useful, and prudent, to check those assumptions you make, and that other people are making, to see if they are still valid, especially if they involve things that are important (cf. Long Term Capital Management).  Is there a bus coming down the road you are crossing?  Are you financially solvent?  Have you allowed for lower probability but potentially corrosive and existential risks? (Taleb's famous Black Swan).  Those sorts of things."

Jesse, Investment Performance for 2007,  December 21, 2007

"All governments [and organizations] suffer a recurring problem: power attracts pathological personalities.  It is not that power corrupts, but that it is magnetic to the corruptible."

Frank Herbert, Chapterhouse Dune, March 1985

"Psychopaths don’t feel they have psychological or emotional problems, and they see no reason to change their behavior to conform with societal standards they do not agree with.  Psychopaths see the rules and expectations of society as inconvenient and unreasonable impediments to their own behavioral expression.  They make their own rules, both as children and as adults. 

Many of the antisocial acts of psychopaths lead to criminal charges and convictions.  But not all psychopaths end up in jail.  Many of the things they do escape detection or prosecution, or are on 'the shady side of the law.'  For them, antisocial behavior may consist of phony stock [and crypto] promotions, questionable business practices, spouse or child abuse, and so forth.  Many others do things that, though not necessarily illegal, are nevertheless unethical, immoral, or harmful to others: philandering or cheating on a spouse to name a few."

Robert Hare, How to Spot Predators Before They Attack, December 5, 2017

"They know of no solutions to the paradoxes of the Middle East and Europe, the Far East and Africa except the landing of Marines. Being baffled, and also being very tired of being baffled, they have come to believe that there is no way out—except war—which would remove all the bewildering paradoxes of their tedious and now misguided attempts to construct peace. In place of these paradoxes they prefer the bright, clear problems of war—as they used to be. For they still believe that 'winning' means something, although they never tell us what.

Some men want war for sordid, others for idealistic, reasons; some for personal gain, others for impersonal principle. But most of those who consciously want war and accept it, and so help to create its 'inevitability,' want it in order to shift the locus [epicenter] of their problems."

C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III, 1958 pp. 86-89


Stocks slumped and then rallied hard into the close.

This was the usual Monday short squeeze where they jam up the specs who took short positions in the market as a safeguard over the weekend.

Gold and silver were slammed, but they both bounced, with silver showing an impressive rise for a decent gain.

I wonder if Bessent and his oligarch buddies are running low on ammo like Hegseth is.

VIX came in hot with slumping stocks this morning, and then collapsed back down into the afternoon.

The Dollar popped at the open of NY trading, and then fell sharply into the close.

The market here is largely smoke and mirrors.  Be careful.

Bitcoin managed to hold a decent bounce.  Good for them.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

A little economic data on jobs from ADP will be coming out tomorrow morning. 

Wednesday is the more important release when we get some inflation data.  Alas, it's already a bit dated because it will not take into account the inflationary effects of the Iran war.

I keep playing scenarios on the outcome of this global adventurism, and they always seem to come out from very bad to disastrous.

As I have said, the US decision to participate in Netanyahu's war will be viewed in retrospect with the Germany invasion of Russia in Operation Barbarossa.

The way things are going if we are able to have unimpeded midterm elections, not by any means a sure thing, then the GOP will probably lose their Congressional majority and the Democrats will be able to make some headway in reining in this imperial presidency.

Even better, if the Democrats can displace Schumer and Jefferies from their leadership we might see some more meaningful reform.  But that does not seem likely at the moment. 

Have a pleasant evening.