Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Remember, Remember

 

“Persuading the people to vote against their own best interests has been the awesome genius of the American political elite.”

Gore Vidal, Homage to Daniel Shays, 1972

"Nothing is great but truth, and the smallest truth is great.  The other day I had a thought, which I put like this: Even a harmful truth is useful, for it can be harmful only for the moment and will lead to other truths, which must always become useful, very much so.  Conversely, even a useful error is harmful, for it can be useful only for the moment, enticing us into other errors, which become more and more harmful."

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Letter to Charlotte von Stein, 1787

"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth."

H.L. Mencken, The Smart Set, 1922

"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society.

The minority has discovered a powerful help in influencing majorities. It has been found possible so to mold the mind of the masses that they will throw their newly gained strength in the desired direction. The mechanism by which ideas are disseminated on a large scale is propaganda, in the broad sense of an organized effort to spread a particular belief or doctrine. Propaganda is the executive arm of the invisible government.

This practice of creating circumstances and of creating pictures in the minds of millions of persons is very common. Virtually no important undertaking is now carried on without it, whether that enterprise be building a cathedral, endowing a university, marketing a moving picture, floating a large bond issue, or electing a president. Sometimes the effect on the public is created by a professional propagandist, sometimes by an amateur deputed for the job. The important thing is that it is universal and continuous; and in its sum total it is regimenting the public mind every bit as much as an army regiments the bodies of its soldiers.

Modern propaganda is a consistent, enduring effort to create or shape events to influence the relations of the public to an enterprise, idea or group. Clearly it is the intelligent minorities which need to make use of propaganda continuously and systematically. In the active proselytizing minorities in whom selfish interests and public interests coincide lie the progress and development of America. Only through the active energy of the intelligent few can the public at large become aware of and act upon new ideas."

Edward Bernays, Propaganda, 1928

"Many will become addicted to hateful and malicious thoughts and hateful words. Slaves to their desires, they will be ferocious, angry despisers of what is good and right. With brutal treachery they will act without restraint, bigoted and blinded by clouds of conceit. They will demand and find their delight in the pleasures of this world, and ignore their need to serve God. They may act religious, but they want to serve themselves."

2 Timothy 3:1-5

As a reminder there will be an option expiration on September 18^th, and it looks like it may be a memorable example of a triple witch in the latter stages of a dodgy episode of egregiously mispriced risk.

Keep a weather eye on the horizon, for the witch of November may come early. 

So, stocks finally bent to the fracas in the Persian Gulf and sensed, as missiles took out various ships and bases and reportedly even struck a carrier, that the risk of war and oil disruptions are in the air.

Stocks fell but in a fairly controlled manner.  No panic yet.

Oil rose again and is pushing up against that trendline for a breakout.

The weather might have to get a little chilly for some to wake up.  Natural gas is sleeping.

Dollar chop.

Gold and silver rallied.  I don't know why Bessent is bothering, since he has his hands full of yen, but it feels like gold is being held down.  

At some point, again, it is going to rocket higher.

Bitcoin is dawdling around a trading range.

Inflation data coming out the next two days.  I am pressed to believe any numbers coming out of the Administration now.  

Bully worship seems to be the trend in the West these days.   It's like a bad relationship that never seems to end. 

Our 'thought leaders' and our politicians are about as bad as I have ever seen, 

This is reminiscent of the days of Senator McCarthy and the Red Scare.   Barely a lick of conscience, courage, or conviction for the Constitution and rule of law anywhere, except for a few shining lights now and then. 

We will have some serious work to do in the days ahead.  I probably won't be here to see it, but I hope you will do yourselves proud.  

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Precarious Propositions

 

“Where is the noble face of modesty, or the strength of virtue, now that blasphemy is in power and men have put justice behind them, and there is no law but lawlessness, and none join in fear of the gods?”

Euripides, Iphigenia in Aulis

“The outstanding negative quality of the totalitarian elite is that it never stops to think about the world as it really is and never compares the lies with reality.  Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism

"Even if it were to explode into smithereens today, the fact would remain that [the Party] recently won fifteen million votes.  Its brutality, loud-mouthedness and brainlessness have acted not as a deterrent but rather as an attraction, and have generated unconditional and subservient followers."

Carl von Ossietzky, Die Weltbühne, January, 1933

"If at the start this cancerous growth in the nation was not particularly noticeable, it was only because there were still enough forces at work that operated for the good, so that it was kept under control. As it grew larger, however, and finally in an ultimate spurt of growth attained ruling power, the tumor broke open, as it were, and infected the whole body."

The White Rose, Second Leaflet, Munich 1942

"Not everyone who says to me, 'Lord, Lord', will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only one who does the will of my Father in heaven. On that day many will say to me, 'Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and cast out demons in your name, and accomplish great things in your name?' Then I will declare to them, ''I do not know you. Depart from me, you who practice lawlessness.”

Matthew 7:21-23

VIX turned higher as the Persian Gulf is turning quickly into a serious shooting match.

AFTER THE BELL: Iran orders a complete evacuation of oil tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports — warning crews to leave immediately or the vessels will be targeted, potentially triggering a chain reaction across the region, per Tasnim News. The warning applies to tankers at anchor or docked, with an attack reportedly potentially coming within hours. It comes after reported U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers, with Tehran now openly signaling immediate retaliation.

During the day Wall Street plays their games, because they don't face many consequences for their duplicity, and have a fine example to follow in Washington.

Things will improve once we revert to the mean on that topic.

Gold got hammered lower late in the day.   Probably wiseguys cleaning up their Non-Farm Payroll bets.

Silver rallied and fell.

Bitcoin drifted lower.

The Dollar is still in its usual chop, but off the 99 handle.

Oil, despite some of the intraday paper games, is starting to break out.

This is going to get very ugly.  

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Currency Wars: The Fog of the Great Reset

 

BREAKING: Iran launches a surprise ballistic missile attack against US bases in Jordan, with loud explosions heard near US Muwaffaq Salti Air Base moments ago.  A US official says no attacks took place, despite multiple ballistic missiles entering Jordanian airspace, meaning the US is once again not going to respond to the latest Iranian attack.  The US has still not responded to the surprise attack on Kuwait 2 days ago.

For the first time in the war, Iran has just launched the Qasem Basir medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile, firing several of them from Isfahan toward vessels under US Navy escort in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, per multiple initial reports.  Several flights are now being put on hold in UAE airspace following the launches from Isfahan, likely targeting US-backed Gulf ship-to-ship oil transfers.

Iran launches anti-ship cruise missiles from southern Iran toward US Navy vessels in the Gulf of Oman, the first time in 3 months, as opposed to oil tankers or commercial ships, per initial reports.

Israel says in a dramatic shift in its assessment, Israel is now preparing for the absolute possibility that Iran will renew the war in the near future, per Channel 14.

Iran has been launching multiple waves of anti-ship cruise missiles and Shahed-136 drones from Sirik, southern Iran, in the past few hours, toward vessels under US Navy escort in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, per initial reports.

Iran has directly warned the US that it would launch "a large-scale Iranian attack" on Israel, in response to any Israeli offensive on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon where Iran's IRGC military personnel are located alongside Hezbollah fighters, per Reuters citing 3 senior officials briefed on the message.

The Israeli military has already occupied swathes of Lebanese territory south of the Ali al-Taher ridge and has publicly identified the ridge as one of its "primary operational focuses," signalling it will proceed with the plan of destroying it in the coming weeks.

The Hormuz Letter, From the Last 24 Hours on X, 4 September 2026
 

The mispricing of risk in the US markets is truly remarkable. Washington spins its confabulations, and the oligarchs and their enablers continue looting the nation's capital. The long term outlook is pain.

VIX is complacent.

The Dollar chopped a tad higher.

Gold, silver and bitcoin gave back a bit of their recent gains.

The wiseguys are trying to make a stand on the price of oil at the rim of the 'cup and handle' on the chart around 92-93.   

As a reminder Monday September 7 is the Labor Day holiday in the US.  All markets will be closed. 

The reckless disregard the power elite have for their own country is just astonishing until you realize that they do not consider themselves to be Americans, but a superior transnational class.

“Wherever there is an ascendant class, a large portion of the morality emanates from its class interests and its class feelings of superiority.  They, as a class, believed that they alone maintained civilization.”   Jack London, The Iron Heel

Reform will come.  And it will be messy. 

Their delusion clouds their minds that they may believe their lies, and thereafter be judged in their lawlessness. 

Do not be deceived, for God is not mocked.  

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Knight, Death, and the Devil

 

"Fear of something is at the root of hate for others, and hate within will eventually destroy the hater."

Alvin Smith, George Washington Carver: Man of God, 1961

“We live in a world in which you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else, but we live in a world, in the real world, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.  These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”

Stephen Miller, CNN Interview, 6 January 2026

"Do you desire to be great?  make yourselves little.  There is a mysterious connexion between real advancement and self-abasement.  If you minister to the humble and despised, if you feed the hungry, tend the sick, succour the distressed; if you bear with the froward, submit to insult, endure ingratitude, render good for evil, you are, as by a divine charm, getting power over the world and rising among the creatures.  God has established this law.  Thus He does His wonderful works.

His instruments are poor and despised; the world hardly knows their names, or not at all.  They are busied about what the world thinks petty actions, and no one minds them.  They are apparently set on no great works; nothing is seen to come of what they do: they seem to fail.  Nay, even as regards religious objects which they themselves profess to desire, there is no natural and visible connexion between their doings and sufferings and these desirable ends; but there is an unseen connexion in the kingdom of God. They rise by falling.

Let this be the settled view of all who would promote Christ's cause upon earth.  If we are true to ourselves, nothing can really thwart us.  Our warfare is not with carnal weapons, but with heavenly.  The world does not understand what our real power is, and where it lies.  And until we put ourselves into its hands of our own act, it can do nothing against us.  Till we leave off patience, meekness, purity, resignation, and peace, it can do nothing against that Truth which is our birthright, that Cause which is ours, as it has been the cause of all saints before us.  But let all who would labour for God in a dark time beware of any thing which ruffles, excites, and in any way withdraws them from the love of God and Christ, and simple obedience to Him.

Such is the rule of our warfare  We advance by yielding; we rise by falling; we conquer by suffering; we persuade by silence; we become rich by bountifulness ; we inherit the earth through meekness; we gain comfort through mourning; we earn glory by penitence and prayer.  Heaven and earth shall sooner fall than this rule be reversed; it is the law of Christ's kingdom, and nothing can reverse it but sin."

John Henry Newman, The Weapons of Saints, 29 October 1837

"The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him."

G.K. Chesterton, Illustrated London News, December 31, 1910

The Dollar slid off the 99 handle today.

Gold, silver and Bitcoin rallied higher.

Stocks rose sharply for no apparent reason and VIX fell.

We could be in store for a major exchange of missiles and drones around the Straight of Hormuz.

Iran is threatening a major attack on Israel if the IDF proceeds further in Lebanon, as they have promised to do.

Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow. 

Have a pleasant evening.