Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - So Shall They Reap

 

"It does not matter how small the sins are, provided that their cumulative effect is to edge the man away from the Light and out into the Nothing.  Indeed the safest road to Hell is the gradual one— the gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts."

C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters, 1942 

"The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists. The sad truth is that most evil is done by people who never make up their minds to be good or evil."

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

"You have accepted things you would not have accepted five years ago, a year ago, things that your father, even in Germany, could not have imagined.  Suddenly it all comes to be, all at once.  You see what you are, what you have done, or, more accurately, what you haven’t done.  For that was all that was required of most of us: that we do nothing.  You remember everything now, and your heart breaks.  Too late.  You are compromised beyond repair."

Milton Mayer, They Thought They Were Free, 1955

"Anyone can be misled by a clever person, and no one likes to readily admit that they have been had.  It is a sign of character and maturity to realize this, and admit your were deceived. But some cannot, even when the facts of the deception are revealed.  The more incorrect that the truth shows them to be, the louder and more strident they become in shouting down and denying reality.  At the extremes, it is no longer about justice, but about the objectification of the individual, the elevation of ideology over truth, and the dehumanisation of 'the other.'"

Jesse, The Economics of Demagogues, 18 June 2012

"One of his heads appeared to have been wounded, but its wound had been healed.  The whole world then became fascinated with the Beast, and gave their allegiance to him.  And they worshiped the serpent, for giving such power to him, as they also worshiped the Beast.  'Who is as great as the Beast?' they shouted. 'And who is able to resist him?'  And the Beast was allowed to speak proud boasts and words offensive to God, and was given authority and power for forty-two months."

Revelation 13:3-5

“We have always known that heedless self interest was bad morals, we now know that it is bad economics. The liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerated the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than the democratic state itself. That in its essence is fascism: ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or any controlling private power.

We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace—business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering. They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.”

Franklin D. Roosevelt, Address at Madison Square Garden, New York, October 31, 1936

A late selling of oil and buying of stocks came a little ahead of this latest announcement.

"US to lift its blockade on Iran once a deal is announced between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the US expects this deal very soon, a US official tells Reuters. This is another major US concession to Iran, coming after Iran added the lifting of the US naval blockade as one of its 4 new demands earlier this week."

The Dollar declined after the lower than expected Jobs number significantly decreased the probability of a Fed rate hike later this year.

Gold and silver bounced.

SpaceX managed a bounced.   Well done, Elon and punters.

VIX fell as peace descends over the markets.

Bitcoin continued in its trading range doing the crypto cha-cha.

Let's see what new and amazing signs and wonders the rest of August brings.

Have a pleasant weekend.  

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - An Illness of the Mind and Spirit

 

"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac. All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.  War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell, Experientia Docet, The New Statesman, August 1937

"All the most noted destroyers and deceivers of our species, all the founders of arbitrary governments and false religions have been extraordinary people; and nine tenths of the calamities that have befallen the human race had no other origin than the union of high intelligence with low desires."

Thomas Babington Macaulay, Milton, Edinburgh Review, August 1825

"Democracy has become a weapon of moneyed interests. It uses the media to create the illusion that there is consent from the governed. The press today is an army with carefully organized weapons, the journalists its officers, the readers its soldiers. The reader neither knows nor is supposed to know the purposes for which he is used and the role he is to play. The notion of democracy is often no different than living under a plutocracy or a government by wealthy elites.”

Oswald Spengler, Der Untergang des Abendlandes, 1922

"Journalism is one of the devices whereby industrial autocracy keeps its control over political democracy; it is the day-by-day, between-elections propaganda, whereby the minds of the people are kept in a state of acquiescence, so that when the crisis of an election comes, they go to the polls and cast their ballots for either one of the two candidates of their exploiters."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check, 1919

"The most valued characteristic of our system seems to be the willingness of the individual to surrender themselves to the unspeakable— to do whatever they are told to do, say anything that they are told to say, attend whatever institution and join whatever organization that may be required, and to profess anything with fervent conviction that they are told to believe. And to never, ever violate the secrecy and carefully crafted image of the ruling class."

Jesse, The Higher Immorality of the Elite, 25 October 2024

"The men of the higher circles are not representative men; their high position is not a result of moral virtue; their fabulous success is not firmly connected with meritorious ability. Those who sit in the seats of the high and the mighty are selected and formed by the means of power, the sources of wealth, the mechanics of celebrity, which prevail in their society.  Commanders of power unequaled in human history, they have succeeded within the American system of organized irresponsibility.  A society that is in its higher circles and on its middle levels widely believed to be a network of smart rackets does not produce men with an inner moral sense; a society that is merely expedient does not produce men of conscience."

C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite, April 1956

“A clique of US industrialists is hell-bent to bring a fascist state to supplant our democratic government and is working closely with the fascist regime in Germany and Italy. I have had plenty of opportunity in my post in Berlin to witness how close some of our American ruling families are to the Nazi regime. Certain American industrialists had a great deal to do with bringing fascist regimes into being in both Germany and Italy. They extended aid to help Fascism occupy the seat of power, and they are helping to keep it there.”

William E. Dodd, Ambassador to Germany, 1938   

"The present war crisis is something we have made entirely for and by ourselves.  There is in reality not the slightest logical reason for war, and yet the whole world is plunging headlong into frightful destruction, and doing so with the purpose of avoiding war and preserving peace!  This is true war-madness, an illness of the mind and spirit that is spreading with a furious and subtle contagion all over the world."

Thomas Merton, The Root of War, The Catholic Worker, October 1961

"Violence does not necessarily take people by the throat and strangle them.  They are required merely to become accomplices in its lies.  The world is being inundated by the brazen conviction that power can do anything, and justice nothing."

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Nobel Lecture, 1970


Not to put too fine a point on it, but mostly everything that Trump, Bessent, and their mouthpieces in the media said about an imminent peace deal with Iran was a lie woven out of whole cloth.

It's purpose was to smash the price of oil, and further inflate the bubble in US equities.

"Iran's Parliament and National Security Commission is reviewing a formal draft bill on management of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf to severely tighten transit rules, per Fars.

Iran is looking to permanently ban US, Israeli, and all other 'hostile' vessels from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with fines of up to 20% of cargo value for violations, both military and civilian. Israeli cargo (military or civilian) will not be allowed to transit through the region."

Most things seem to be chopping sideways these days, like they are pacing around while waiting for the bus or a train.

VIX fell into its usual pattern of complacency.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.  It is being produced by contaminated sources. 

Gold and silver popped but were pushed back closer to unchanged.

Everything is chopping sideways now unless it benefits an exceptional few.

I have never seen the like of it except in places suffering an onslaught of lawless corruption that were in highly troubled times. 

Yeah, that sounds about right.  An illness of the mind and spirit.   

It's a contagion that has been spreading for some time.

And in late breaking news after the bell:

Multiple credible intelligence reports indicate Yemen's Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Iran's IRGC are preparing to launch massive coordinated attacks against Saudi Arabia, a senior Saudi source tells Al Arabiya. Targets are expected to include civilian, energy and oil facilities, critical infrastructure, airports, and ports. The source adds that missiles and drones are being repositioned for simultaneous attacks.

It's always something. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Hard Row to Hoe

 

"Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, delivered one of his starkest warnings yet on the current market environment arguing AI enthusiasm has pushed markets into bubble territory reminiscent of 1929 and 2000.  His warning arrives just as the market prepares to test his thesis in real time: SpaceX has already gone public in the largest IPO ever, and Anthropic and OpenAI are barreling toward trillion-dollar valuations—precisely the kind of speculative issuance surge that market historians treat as a bubble's clearest warning sign."

Fortune 3 August 2026

"There seems little question that in 1929 the economy was fundamentally unsound. This is a circumstance of first-rate importance. In 1929 the rich were indubitable rich. The figures are not entirely satisfactory, but it seems certain that the five per cent of the population with the highest incomes in that year received approximately one-third of all income.

This highly unequal income distribution meant that the economy was dependent on a high level of investment or a high level of luxury consumer spending or both.  The rich cannot buy great quantities of bread.  If they are to dispose of what they receive it must be on luxuries or by way of investment in new plants and new projects.  Both investment and luxury spending are subject, inevitably, to more erratic influences and to wider fluctuations than the bread and rent outlays of the $25-week workman. This high bracket spending and investment was especially susceptible, one may assume, to the crushing news from the stock market in October 1929."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929, 1955

"Hoover quickly developed a reputation as uncaring.  He cut unemployment figures that reached his desk, eliminating those he thought were only temporarily jobless and not seriously looking for work.  In June 1930, a delegation came to see him to request a federal public works program.  Hoover responded to them by saying, 'Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late.  The Depression is over.'  He insisted that 'nobody is actually starving' and that 'the hoboes are better fed than they have ever been.'  He claimed that the vendors selling apples on street corners had 'left their jobs for the more profitable one of selling apples.'

'There are some principles that cannot be compromised,' Hoover remarked in 1936.  "Either we shall have a society based upon ordered liberty and the initiative of the individual, or we shall have a planned society that means dictation no matter what you call it.  There is no half-way ground.'  He was convinced that the economy would fix itself."

Digital History, Herbert Hoover, 2021

“Thanks to the tax cuts we passed, Americans’ paychecks are a little bigger today.  Every business can write off the full cost of the new investments they make this year.  These steps will grow the economy.”

Herbert Hoover, Campaign Speech, Detroit, October 22, 1932 

"In his memoirs, Hoover describes a 'leave it alone' school of thought headed by Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon, who advocated allowing the economic slump to run its course.  Mellon believed in a harsh restructuring, famously stating 'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.'"

Herbert Hoover, Memoirs of Herbert Hoover, 1952

"J. P. Morgan and Andrew Mellon made their billions through inter locking directorates and outright ownership of hundreds of nationally prominent enterprises.  Glass-Steagall is one crucial piece of a litany of legislation designed to place checks and balances on the concentration of financial resources.  To repeal it would be tantamount to bringing back the days of the robber barons."

Mark D. Samber, End Bank Law and Robber Barons Ride Again, NY Times, March 5, 1995

"The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover was an engineer. He knew that water trickles down. But he didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night, anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellows hands.”

Will Rogers, Weekly Column, St. Petersburg Times, Nov 26, 1932

 

The rumors spread about an imminent deal with Iran by high ranking officials of the government, including the cleverly worded statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, were greatly exaggerated.

But it did provide the opportunity to once again crush the price of crude oil to a price that, from what I hear and see, is not available for actual physical delivery just about anywhere.

There seems to be a lot of that going around these days.  Such are the times, and the purposeful fog of war.

There were missiles flying and tankers sinking today.   If you did not know this and the recent announcement from Iran on the Strait of Hormuz then you may wish to find another source of news - or be content to operate on faulty information.

So we had quite the pop and flop in stocks day, with new highs fading quickly into the red as the false underpinnings of the rally faded.

Ok, so the reckoning with oil supply is likely to become more noticeable in a few weeks.  But the general deterioration of the economy and the nature of the AI tech bubble is very apparent.

Gold and silver rallied sharply.   Before I draw too many strong conclusions about this I want to see how they perform through the Non-Farm Payrolls report this Friday, a traditional event for metals smashing.

SpaceX popped and then flopped back to the distribution trendline.   There are more shares coming out of 'lockup' in the near term than were issued at the time of the IPO.

But the problem is really that the underpinnings of the AI tech rally are just not sustainable or even realistic.  It seems to be a classic 'new era' stock bubble.

Ray Dalio and Michael Burry see this.  With well-deserved humility I see it as well.

I am fairly convinced that there is going to be a reckoning of memorable proportions later this year, on a scale with other significant financial adjustment events of the past as Dalio indicates.

The power elite are feeling good, and giddy with success.

If there are damned souls in Hell, it is because men blind themselves. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Iron Laws of the World Cut Both Ways

 

"Narcissistic personalities care only for themselves, their needs, and their priorities.  While you and I appreciate attention, the narcissist craves it and manipulates people and situations to get it.  While you and I work hard to be successful, the narcissistic personality connives to succeed and may cheat, lie, embellish the truth, or scheme to get ahead, uncaring of how others are affected. 

These personalities can be found in every level of our society, right up to the top, where history's grim record shows that they've started wars and exterminated populations.  But they're also found in the cubicle or on the bar stool next to you, at home, on the team, in the classroom, and even in your spiritual community.

Some narcissistic personalities present themselves as being very accomplished, but in fact they've accomplished little — which doesn't stop them from acting superior and seeing themselves as a great inventor, artist, musician, thinker, leader, or singer.  When things don't go their way, they blame everyone but themselves.  Maybe these individuals made mistakes, are incompetent, or just aren't well liked, but you'll never hear that from them.  No, the system, society, the boss, the professor, the electorate, the world is against them.  We simply fail to see how great they are.

When others don't treat narcissists as the special person they deem themselves to be, their reaction is infantile rage that ranges from sulking to whining to seething and, sometimes, to violence.  They can berate and blame with impunity, hold grudges, and be vengeful — that is their nature.

Because they see themselves as special and unique, narcissistic personalities tend to see everyone else as either marginal or inferior.  They become masters at putting others down in order to elevate themselves — they are the bullies of the world.  A person who feels superior to others will have limited ability to empathize. 

The most dangerous narcissists are those whose utter lack of empathy and high levels of grandiosity verge on psychopathy: the ability to do harm without remorse. They have no conscience and will exploit others emotionally, financially, and sometimes physically.  If you please them, you are convenient; if you displease them, you're more than an inconvenience — you're something they must debase or perhaps destroy.

Because they feel entitled, narcissistic personalities may feel they don't have to work as hard as others, that they can take shortcuts to get what they want, or that the rules don't apply to them.  This is how you end up with politicians who have affairs, father children, and attempt to deny their paternity; turn public funds into their own private piggy bank; or are willing to sell political favors for a price."

Joe Navarro, Destructive Personalities, 2014

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured the markets that a full deal to restore the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Iran of course said this is all nonsense and launched a few missiles to punctuate their comments. 

And stocks rallied higher with a fury, as the signal to buy and devil take the hindmost had been given.

The SP 500 hit a new all time high.

While the NDX rallied it is still non confirming the move and failing to set a higher high.

But more interesting to me, the VIX ticked higher on a massive broad stock rally.

Gold and silver bounced.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. 

Bitcoin bounced.

Even SpaceX bounced.

The price of crude oil was hammered lower, beyond all rational calculation. 

This was a purposeful blast of bubble for political and personal motives, and I am not desperately encouraged by it at all. 

The power elite are running up tabs in terms of debt and the malinvestment of resources that is going to bite, and bit hard later on this year.

Have a pleasant evening.