Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Humpty Trumpty

 

"'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean.'

`The question is,' said Alice, `whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

`The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, `to be the master — that's all.'"

Lewis Carroll

"The current trend in the United States economy is not sustainable.  This is a realization that will penetrate the national consciousness slowly and unevenly.  Most economists agree on how this cycle will end (even if it is only privately), but the great debate is in the details of how, and most importantly, when.

If one does not accept that the situation is unsustainable, and believes that things can continue on endlessly just as they are, with the United States consuming the bulk of the world’s savings and production because of who we are, then perhaps this is symptomatic of the national epidemic we now suffer which the ancient Greeks called hubris.

'Where else will they put their surplus if not our debt?  To whom will they sell their goods if not to us?  Who will teach them how to live, and govern them?'  History shows that even if such trends last far beyond most expectations, eventually a day of reckoning arrives, in some frequently repeated patterns of systemic failure.

Things rarely reach a turning point when we expect it. A true sea change is slow to permeate the mentality of most people, because our experience is that what happened yesterday will happen again tomorrow, and a long cyclical turn occurs gradually and incrementally.  We forget what happened even a few years ago.  Predictions of a continuance of recent trends are the common currency of most pundits...

However, and this is a common sense notion that has been nearly forgotten by our generation, we have the ability to act in such a way so as to make the improbable more likely to occur, to tempt fate by our actions.  For example, there is a certain probability of sustaining an automobile accident in the normal course of our daily activities.  High risk behaviors, such as speeding excessively or drinking while driving, increase the chance of an accident.  If one engages in high risk activity, and nothing unusual happens, we become emboldened and think that since we were able to drink moderately and drive last month, so we can drink and drive this month and thereafter.  Perhaps next month we drink a little more for an indulgence, and again nothing happens.  This cycle continues until something changes our behavior, or simply ends when we literally hit the wall.

It would be our contention that the US is like such a driver, and we have been economically tempting fate with increasingly risky behaviors.  We are persuaded that there is almost nothing we cannot do, almost nothing that can happen, that is beyond our control.  It is the propensity for people to increase and repeat what they have been doing over time, to tempt fate through repeated and increasingly risky behavior, and to forget the possibility of a sequence of unfortunate events if you will, that gives rise to memorable events in history...

Predicting the failure of a complex system is not easy.  One can examine it as a whole, and determine that it will fail, and often calculate what must change in order to allow the system to function more reliably.  But it is often beyond our power to calculate exactly how it will fail, and consequently when it will fail.  This does not invalidate the observation that the system will ultimately fail.  It merely underscores the unpredictability of timing a failure with the degrees of freedom inherent in a calculation with a large number of exogenous variables.  It is not easy to predict exactly when a chronic DWI will demolish their automobile, but it remains relatively predictable to say that they will do so as long as they maintain
their current mode of behavior...

There are four major economic tipping points:

o Demand: a break in the level of consumption in the US caused by the
unwillingness or ability of households to incur further debt to support
consumption beyond real wage growth

o Supply: a major disruption in the supply of an essential commodity like
energy, food, or raw materials, or even the realization that a major
commodity is in shorter supply than expected, such as silver or oil.

o Monetary: an inability or unwillingness of foreign central banks to continue to
monetize the US trade deficit and budget deficit through the recycling of
their trade surplus into US debt securities.

o Systemic failure: the failure of major counter parties that threatens the
US financial system, particularly in the hugely leveraged derivatives
market.

There is still time to end this spiral of decline.

Jesse, Forecast: The Humpty Dumpty Economy, Jesse's Crossroads Cafe, 2005

"For these are a rebellious people, deceitful children, unwilling to listen to the instructions of the Lord. They say to their seers, ‘Do not see!’ and to the prophets, ‘Say nothing of what is right. Tell us only things that please us — prophesy illusions."

Isaiah 30:9-10

I thought today might be a good day to review an economic forecast for the US that made and posted on my old site, Jesse's Crossroads Cafe, on Yahoo Geocities in 2005.

Before you judge it too harshly try to remember what was happening in 2005, and what people were thinking.  The predominant opinion seemed to be a recovery, but with a virtually inevitable risk of deflation because of debt destruction.  

I did quite a bit of analysis and posting about the coming 'currency wars' and the nature of money in a fiat environment.  Most of it fell on deaf ears, because people don't listen except to quickly cobble together whatever ragtag rebuttal to support their own bias, laced with flourishes of pettiness.

The markets skyrocketed last night when Trump announced that a ceasefire and peace negotiations would be proceeding with Iran.   He neglected to include Netanyahu in those discussions, which were primarily driven by Pakistan and China, and not his brilliant negotiation.

Since Israel has a key role to play in making this ceasefire a reality, and since they have never honored any ceasefire in recent memory, the temptation to be skeptical is perhaps warranted. 

They are obviously polishing up J. D. Vance to be the next President, whenever that might be, but I can't help but thinking unless the Democrats pull out some rerun of past failure, which in itself is no long shot, then he might be a bit of a hard sell.  

I don't see much to make one enthusiastic, on either side of the aisle.  If Humpty Trumpty has a great fall, there are an ample number of humps eager to replace him.   And the jackals are gathering, even among his own. 

They lie, and admire their own lying.  It's their natural form of self-expression.  

So, will this ceasefire result in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and peace breaking out in Iran, Lebanon, and dare we hope, the West Bank and Gaza?

Can Trump finally stand up to Netanyahu, and put America's interests first?   

Let us pray and hope, as gentle as lambs, but as wary as the circumstances and past history would suggest.  And given the continuing attacks on Lebanon by Israel, it is already faltering.

"The pride of Satan is hard for us on earth to comprehend, and therefore it is easy to fall into error and to share in it, even imagining that we are doing something grand and fine."  Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

In the long term things appear to be dismal for the US economy.  The damage that the Trump administration, and the administrations of the past several presidents, have been doing are taking a toll.

Gold and silver rallied sharply, and gold in particular was smacked back down.  The currency war is alive and well, and gold is a popular participant to the dismay of the Western Banks who have been allowing gold to move steadily to strong hands to the East.

The Dollar has fallen off a bit and is hanging out on the 98 handle.

Recession is underway in the US.  Trump has squandered a dwindling stock of precious resources on foolish adventures, and the debt is becoming a serious problem, moreso than in the past.  

Gradually, and then, alas, all at once is the likely outcome in this sort of unfettered mega-trend.

If we do get a break in the price of oil and its related products stock up, because while Netanyahu's coalition has sway in the Knesset, there will be no peace in the Middle East.   

And then there is Ukraine, and the failing leadership in Europe.  

It's a perfect storm of venal incompetency in the West it seems, and that is not promising.

I do not like most politicians in general.  Of course there are some glowing exceptions, but their halos fade quickly, as power tends to attract the unattractively corruptible.  But this current crop of shameless liars and self-serving ciphers in high office is daunting. 

Continue making your preparations and various arrangements during this lull in the storm. 

There is still some time to bring into effect meaningful reform, but the odds continue to deteriorate. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Quiet Way of Life

 

"'These prophets tell you lies in my name,' the Lord said to me. 'I did not send them. I gave them no command, nor did I speak to them. They prophesy lying visions, foolish divination, idolatries and deceptions from their own imagination.'"

Jeremiah 14:14

"Some people are false apostles, deceitful workers, masquerading as apostles of Christ. And no wonder, for Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light. It is not surprising, then, if his servants also masquerade as servants of righteousness. Their ends will be what their actions deserve."

2 Corinthians 11:13-15

"We are called harm-doers by some, and accused of being useless in the affairs of life.  How in all the world can that be the case with people who are living among you, eating the same food, wearing the same attire, having the same habits, under the same necessities of existence?  We are not remote elites or ascetic philosophers, who dwell alone and separate themselves from ordinary human life.  And we do not forget the debt of gratitude that we owe to God, our Lord and Creator. We reject no creature of His hands, though we exercise restraint upon ourselves, to avoid a reckless or sinful use of His gifts. And so for now we travel with you in the world."

Tertullianus, Apologeticum, XLII, Carthage, 197 AD

"No one is born a hero.  Or a saint.  Courage is doing what duty says we must do, in the face of even terrible doubts and fears that might paralyze the heart and mind.  Human nature can be deeply flawed, and is always imperfect.  But the response of human beings to their natural weaknesses is what determines their character.

If you speak to anyone who has gone badly wrong, you will likely find it is not in one major life changing decision, but a hundred upon a hundred decisions and rationalizations that grow into something, one on the other. And through it all, evil whispers to their hearts.

And yet others are exemplary, and rise above.  In secular view we call them heroes, and in a religious context, we call them saints.

But there are many, many more who, despite their fears and doubts, continue to do the right thing, every day, in quietness and a devotion so something greater than their own weakness and themselves, whatever that may be.  They see that with freedom comes not only power, but responsibility and obligation.  And these are the hidden heroes, the great gathering of the body of Christ, those who live their lives 'hidden in God.'"

Jesse, Heroes and Saints, 18 January 2015

“If I could give you information of my life it would be to show how a woman of very ordinary ability has been led by God in strange and unaccustomed paths to do in His service what He has done in her. And if I could tell you all, you would see how God has done all, and I nothing. I have worked hard, very hard, that is all; and I have never refused God anything.”

Florence Nightingale, Letter to Rev. Lemuel Moss, 1868

"Take a stand for that which is right, and the world may misunderstand you and criticize you, but you never go alone. And the world will look at you and they won't understand you, for your fiery furnace will be around you, but you'll go on anyhow. But if not, I will not bow, and God grant that we will never bow before the gods of evil."

Martin Luther King, But If Not, Ebenezer Baptist Church, November, 1967


It takes a certain boldness of spirit to take one of primary capital allocation systems of a great nation and turn it into a brazen control fraud.  

If would be funny if it were not corrosive, a cancer in the real economy. 

And then there is the justice system and judiciary.

We have plenty of sharpers, and skillful liars.  What we lack are a few honorable people who place duty and God higher than petty selfishness. 

Stocks were slumping hard, again, and managed to finish in the green, again.

I haven't checked yet for the rumor of today.  Trump probably said something on his failing social media platform or in some public news event.  

Ok, I looked it up and it was a story from Axios about progress being made in the US-Iran 'peace talks.'  

Earlier today one of the independent commentators I follow for conflict analysis, Patricia Marins, said on X:

"Everything indicates that Barak Ravid is the journalist chosen by the U.S. government to release information designed to contain or temporarily mislead the markets for only a few business days, fully aligned with the White House’s messaging. That’s why we will avoid citing Axios publications until the end of the war."

This is the famous 'fog of war'.  And too often, smokescreen.  So we must be 'as cautious as snakes, but as gentle as doves.'  It's not always easy to do.  

Today ChatGPT told me a whopper about a quote I was tracking down.  I spend a lot of time trying to authenticate them, because the internet is a breeding ground for false attributions and fake narratives, most carelessly but at times willfully.

The Dollar fell a bit, and gold and silver managed to rally back.

Even poor old Bitcoin came off its lows.

Let's see what happens tonight.   

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Carelessly Uncaring, Deceiving and Being Deceived

 

"They have become twisted in their reasoning, and their foolish hearts are darkened."

Romans 1:21

"Early on in the gospel traditions the power elite in Jesus’ society, who were colluding with the Roman Empire, recognized him as a threat and began to conspire to kill him.  Jesus became a reference point for much of the hostility and resistance to the power of the empire because he refused to accommodate it, and told another story of reality that the empire could not co-opt."

Jonathan Merritt, Brueggemann On How to Speak Truth to Power, June 26, 2014

"Those who wish to live in the grace of Christ will be persecuted, but the hypocrites and their charlatans will move from bad to worse, deceiving and being deceived."

2 Timothy 3:12-13

"The humanitarians and civilians should never be paying the consequences of war. This is a basic principle of humanity. At the time, this looks like it’s not a war against terrorism anymore. It seems this is a war against humanity itself. You cannot be destroying every building. You cannot be destroying every hospital, every school. You cannot be targeting humanitarians. You cannot be targeting children. You cannot be fighting the basis of what humanity should be standing for."

Charlie Nash, Aid Workers Were ‘Targeted Deliberately’, Mediaite, 4 April 2024

"You are always on the right side when you are with those who suffer persecution and injustice."

Léon Bloy, Le Pèlerin de l'Absolu, 1914

"What is more disturbing to our peace of mind than the unconditional loyalty of members of totalitarian movements, and the popular support of totalitarian regimes, is the unquestionable attraction these movements exert on the elite, and not only on the mob elements in society.  It would be rash indeed to discount, because of artistic vagaries or scholarly naivete, the terrifying roster of distinguished men whom totalitarianism can count among its sympathizers, fellow-travelers, and inscribed party members."

Hannah Arendt, Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951


As is customary of late, the stock futures slumped badly on Sunday evening, but little by little they were pushed higher, and behold, there was yet another rally on a Monday morning.

Gold and silver of course were sold, but managed to hold up fairly well and even posted modest gains.

Bitcoin has risen to the upper half of its intermediate trading range.

The dollar slipped off the 100 handle.

VIX did its usual dipsy-doodle in the face of increasing risks.

Below is a chart showing the performance of  'alternative asset managers' in the markets.   They are not faring well, as the quality of private debt is corroding like its 2007.

The geo-political economic and military risks are sky high, but the markets are looking the other way, as if this is a way to support the effort, in abject denial. 

The West is slipping into recession.  That last nail in that coffin was the invasion of Iran, and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the carelessly uncaring actions of The Mad King.  

This afternoon Trump gave Iran an ultimatum for this Tuesday at 8 PM, or face 'obliteration' of its civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.  And the markets yawned. 

“They were careless people, Tom and Daisy — they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”   F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby

 Have a pleasant evening.

Truly, He is Risen

 

"Now on the first day of the week Mary Magdalene came early to the tomb, while it was still dark, and she saw the stone removed from the tomb. So she went running to Simon Peter and the other disciple, the one whom Jesus loved, and said to them, 'They have taken our Master out of the tomb, and we do not know where they put him.

So Peter and the other disciple set out for the tomb. The two were running together, but the other disciple was running faster and arrived at the tomb first. When he stooped down to look he saw the linen wrappings lying there, but did not go in. The Simon Peter, who had been running behind him arrived, and went right into the tomb.

He saw the linen wrappings lying there, and the face cloth that had been on Jesus' head. It was not with the linen wrappings, but rolled up in a place by itself. Then the other disciple, the one who had arrived first, went into the tomb, and saw and believed. They still did not understand the scripture that Jesus must arise from the dead."

John 20:1-10

“There was a certain rich man who was splendidly clothed in purple and fine linen, and who lived each day in luxury. At his gate lay a poor man named Lazarus, who was covered with sores. As Lazarus lay there longing for scraps from the rich man’s table, the dogs would come and lick his sores.

Finally, the poor man died and was carried by the angels to be with Abraham. The rich man also died and was buried, and his soul went to the place of the dead. There, in torment, he saw Abraham in the far distance with Lazarus at his side.

The rich man shouted, ‘Father Abraham, have some pity! Send Lazarus over here to dip the tip of his finger in water and cool my tongue. I am in anguish in these flames.’ But Abraham said to him, ‘My son, remember that during your lifetime you had everything you wanted, and Lazarus had nothing. So now he is here being comforted, and you are in anguish. And there is a great chasm separating us. No one can cross over to you from here, and no one can cross over to us from there.’

Then the rich man said, ‘Please, Father Abraham, at least send him to my father’s home. For I have five brothers, and I want him to warn them so they don’t end up in this place of torment.’ But Abraham said, ‘Moses and the prophets have warned them. Your brothers can read what they wrote.’

The rich man replied, ‘No, Father Abraham! But if someone is sent to them from the dead, then they will repent of their sins and turn to God.’ But Abraham said, ‘If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’”

Luke 16:19-31

The sin of the rich man in the parable of Lazarus was not that he had been given great wealth, even though had no gratitude, and still thinks that it is all because of his own merits.  No, his sin is that his pride made him blind to the suffering of Lazarus, who sat every day on his doorstep.  He saw, but did not care.

It was in the torment of the abyss that the rich man's eyes were opened.  Looking across the great chasm he finally sees Lazarus and holy Abraham.  And the first thing that the rich man does is to beg for favors and comfort for himself, rather than forgiveness.

He feels no shame, no repentance, never once saying that he is sorry.  Even as his eyes were opened, his heart remained hardened in the grip of his greed.  His sins are the chasm that separates him from salvation.  He holds himself apart from the abundant grace of God.

Nations that have been blessed can blind themselves to the misuse of their power and good fortune, given to them by God, to harm and oppress others, to fulfill their own greed and vanity. They exalt themselves as the greatest good, the exceptional— even as they oppress and plunder and murder.  Until at long last God breaks the arm of their power, and with chastisements humbles them.

'The more secret God's hand is, the more powerful — the more silent, the more awful.'