27 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Refuge of the Way - Third Quarter GDP Tomorrow


"Who of you is wise and understanding?  Show it by your good life, and by works done in the humility that comes from wisdom.  But if you have bitter jealousy and selfish ambition in your hearts, do not boast about it or deny the truth.  Such ‘wisdom’ does not come down from heaven but is worldly, unspiritual, and demonic.  For where there is envy and selfish ambition, there will be disorder and every evil practice. The wisdom that comes from heaven is first of all pure; then peace-loving, considerate, humble, full of mercy and good fruit, objective and sincere. Those who sow in peace reap a harvest of righteousness."

James 3:13-18

Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes, nor figs from thistles."

 Matthew 7:15

"Nor will love be seen coming from the hearts of those who are fallen into wickedness: they are the fruit of hate, deceit, greed, fear, pride, possession, and aggression.  And they will not only forsake love by washing their hands of it, they will eventually come to condemn it, and persecute it— and thereby condemn themselves.

For the people of God love is the touchstone of faith, the way to know if what we believe is with Him, or from something else; if we are walking with Him, or with something else; if the one who speaks is speaking for Him, or for something else; if we are keeping Him in our hearts, or something else; if we love Him, or ourselves, or something else. 

Love does not speak with hate or fear or derision, but with the fullness of existence which is joy and mercy.  Love is ridiculed and trampled upon by that which is in opposition to His creation. When you are in doubt or confusion about what is true and what is false, look for the light of love.  This is the hallmark of the spirit in the world." 

Jesse, Love Is the Refuge of the Way

Stocks reached for those new highs again today, and flopped back down into the red, or at best unchanged in the case of the big cap, new era tech stocks.

I suspect stocks are priced for perfection, and the GDP number tomorrow has them a bit edgy.

After all, the basis of this bull market bubble is a ponzi scheme fueled by easy money.

And when the music stops, there will be a rush to the exits.

Gold and silver were up a bit.

The Dollar was down a bit. 

From my perspective, the new Bitcoin ETF is analogous to shooting  gerbils out of a cannon during the last tech bubble.  

You know, the one before the housing bubble.

I wonder what we should call this latest bubble?  

Have a pleasant evening.



26 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Complacency and Conscience


“Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.  In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words they were human: they did not believe in plagues."

Albert Camus, The Plague


"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God. Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind." 

Dietrich Bonhoeffe, Letters and Papers from Prison


“Religion used to be the opium of the people.  To those suffering humiliation, pain, illness, and serfdom, religion promised the reward of an after life.  But now we are witnessing a transformation: a true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, that we are not going to be judged.” 

 Czeslaw Milosz, The Discreet Charm of Nihilism 


“A man who lies to himself, and believes his own lies, becomes unable to recognize truth, either in himself or in anyone else, and he ends up losing respect for himself and for others.  When he has no respect for anyone, he can no longer love, and in him, he yields to his impulses, indulges in the lowest form of pleasure, and behaves in the end like an animal in satisfying his vices.   And it all comes from lying — to others and to yourself.” 

Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov


As I noted the other day, rather than call this a 'stock bubble' it would probably more correct and natural to call it a 'ponzi scheme.'

Bubbles tend to masquerade as acts of God, or the madness of crowds.

The only madness of the crowds recently has been to trust in the same old schemes from the usual gang of con men and their mouthpieces.

Stocks did a pop and flop.

One of these days that sort of flop is going to translate into a swan dive.

The SP 500 and a couple name stocks are doing all the heavy lifting.

I suspect that insiders are handing off their gains to mom and pop, and their institutions.

Capital is rushing heedlessly into opaque risks, and is readying itself to be consumed.

Gold and silver were hit hard and early, for no particular reason.

They recovered much of their losses into the close.

The Dollar chopped sideways.

Keep an eye out for the GDP print for the 3rd quarter on Thursday. 

Have a pleasant evening.




25 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Self-Sanctified and Thrice-Damned


"Free market economic 'literature' as economists call it — and their papers frequently are works of fiction — gave succor and intellectual respectability to the decades of deregulation and tax cuts that have bankrupted the country.  Congress is compromised, to be sure, but lobbyists and members need economic studies as cover for what they are doing.  

The United States is a plutocracy, with an income and wealth distribution that rivals South America’s worst cases, but economists refuse to acknowledge that these outcomes are attributable to ill-advised public policies on taxation, regulation, trade, and education spending over the last several decades. 

Economists bleat about 'globalization' as though it were inevitable rather than a set of deliberate policy choices.  Markets are political creations, so results produced by them are not inviolable or free from question."

Lee Sheppard, Economists' Malign Influence on Taxes, Forbes, May 3, 2012


“We run heedlessly into the abyss after putting something in front of us to stop us from seeing it.” 

Blaise Pascal, Pensées 


"Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t seem to get into gear.   Recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. We’re running out of time." 

Simon Johnson, The Quiet Coup, May 2009


“Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.” 

Robert Heller, Federal Reserve Board, 1989 


"Too many of America's elites - among the super-rich, the CEOs, and many of my colleagues in academia - have abandoned a commitment to social responsibility. They chase wealth and power, the rest of society be damned."

Jeffrey Sachs, The Price of Civilization, January 2012


“Political decisions helped to create the super-elite in the first place, and as the economic might of the super-elite class grows, so does its political muscle.  Surging income inequality is such a strong violation of our expectations that most of us don’t realize it is happening.” 

Chrystia Freeland, Plutocrats


"The suspicions that the system is rigged in favor of the largest banks and their elites, so they play by their own set of rules to the disfavor of the taxpayers who funded their bailout, are true.  It really happened.  These suspicions are valid.” 

Neil Barofsky, TARP Inspector General 


Stocks managed to rally higher and hold their gains for the most part.

The biggest driver was Tesla, which is receiving an order for 100,000 vehicles from Hertz.

After the bell Facebook missed its revenue estimates and gave a soft revenue forecast for the future. 

I tend to look at the revenue numbers first, as a good CFO with a flexible accounting structure cane make short term profits do just about anything thy want.

Remember Cisco, which famously beat their earnings number by one penny, quarter after quarter?

Actually this whole market reminds me of 1999-2001.

It is more than a bubble;  it is a Ponzi scheme.

Facebook pledged a $50 billion stock buyback program though, so all was quickly forgiven, or at least forgotten.

Gold and silver managed to rally today even as the Dollar slightly strengthened.

And the band played on.

Have a pleasant evening. 





22 October 2021

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - This Attractive But Deceptive World


"Use the inconspicuous events and situations of everyday life as material for sanctification. Do it in obscurity."

Dorothy Day


“I believe that the desire to please you Lord does in fact please you.  And I hope I have that desire in all that I am doing.  I hope that I will never do anything apart from that desire.  And I know that if I do this you will lead me by the right road though I may know nothing about it.  Therefore will I trust you always though I may seem to be lost and in the shadow of death.  I will not fear, for you are ever with me, and you will never leave me to face my perils alone.” 

Thomas Merton


"Then the rich man said, ‘Please, Father Abraham, at least send Lazarus to my father’s home. For I have five brothers, and I want him to warn them so they don’t end up in this place of torment.’ But Abraham said, ‘Moses and the prophets have warned them. Your brothers can read what they wrote.’ 

The rich man replied, ‘No, Father Abraham! But if someone is sent to them from the dead, then they will repent of their sins and turn to God.’ But Abraham said, ‘If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’” 

Luke 16:19-31


Stocks, meaning the SP 500 mostly, took another run at a new high today, and fell short again.

The Techs are floundering a bit as the enthusiasm for the speculative bubble wanes.

Gold and silver were up sharply, but manage to get sold down a bit into the close.  No breakout yet.

Gold continues to be drained out of Hong Kong.

The Dollar edged lower.

Have a pleasant weekend.