18 October 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Stock Option Expiration on Friday - Anything Goes

"Wall Street did not accidentally run a barge aground and leave a small oil slick on the Hudson River. Wall Street did not accidentally release tainted lettuce that sickened a few dozen people.

What Wall Street did was intentional and criminal: it financially engineered a toxic subprime house of cards which it knew from its own internal reviews was going to collapse; it then molded the toxic product into inscrutable bundles; it sold the bundles to unsuspecting investors around the globe while making side bets that it would all come crashing down.

Then, after causing the greatest financial collapse in the United States since the Great Depression, Wall Street’s unrepentant scoundrels paid themselves billions of dollars in bonuses with taxpayer bailout funds."

Pam and Russ Martens, Wall Street On Parade

There will be a stock options expiration for October on this Friday.

The touts are talking up stocks this week. I'll take that as a good sign to take profits out of equities if you have them. We are nearing what is likely to be at least a short term top.

The bullish argument is that the Fed will keep supplying easy money to Wall Street, and they and their minions will keep piling into stocks because they have no other choice. That is sounding a bit tired at this point.

Never forget what Pam and Russ Martens said above.  We were all there watching it. We know what happened, not only from the news but our own personal experiences.  The myth makers are out in force, trying to rewrite history.

And I think this is because they are concerned about another big wash and rinse, again.  And they are softening up public opinion in advance.   Yes, they really do think that most people are that easily led.  And you know what, they may just have a point. 

You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.    Hillary forgot to include that one in her book.

Have a pleasant evening.

Very Long Term Gold Chart Priced In Dollars

17 October 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Arc of the Moral Universe

"Since 1970, every time asset values have risen above 520% of households disposable income (the dashed line in the chart) then the US has been in a bubble and a subsequent crash has followed.  This has simply meant asset values growing much faster than households income or households capability to sustain those price increases. The depth of each crash has been relative to the overshoot of asset values on the upside."

Chris Hamilton, Bubble-nomics

It seems as though when I procrastinate long enough someone eventually does a very good job of making a point for something that is important, and does it in a way that I may not have been able to do as well otherwise.

A favorite refrain of financiers, fraudsters, politicians and their defense lawyers is to pose the questions in defense of a lie or a fraud in such a way as to blur the lines of recognition, so as to create room for a reasonable doubt.    Indeed, the boldest among them will ask those would listen to them to question reality itself.   What does 'is' really mean, for example.

Chris Hamilton of Economica as noted in the second quote above has come up with a very clever way to help to put a little rigor around the concept of financial asset bubbles. Obviously the crux of the problem is to find some metric, some reasonable and relatively stable or significant relationship against which to measure changes in one value and compare them over time.

Chris has chosen disposable income, which is actually pretty darn good.  And since the link between disposable income and net worth has a suggestion of correlation, and not just causation, the shoe seems to fit fairly well. 

One might rephrase it as 'when is the economy unusually asset rich, and relatively income poor.'  There are other standards one might use, but modern fictionalization economic measures like money supply has knocked a few of them for a loop.  And I am sure that there are economists aplenty who can cast a doubt on any of them.

Truth can become a very slippery thing, especially when a conspiracy of silence, or  the subornation of perjury, in support of a lie  becomes especially lucrative to the point of being de rigueur, a kind of badge of office among the elite, and sadly even among those who are sworn to uphold justice, and to protect the innocent. 

This next bubble and crash cycle is going to put a tear in the social fabric, and may even leave a mark.   The natives are clearly getting restless and their sahibs may be in danger of losing control.

What does it profit a man, indeed.

Have a pleasant evening.

Thomas Frank: What Happened To the American Dream and US Democratic Politics

“Corruption is uniquely reprehensible in a democracy because it violates the system's first principle, which we all learned back in the sunshiny days of elementary school: that the government exists to serve the public, not particular companies or individuals or even elected officials.”

Thomas Frank

16 October 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - On the Wings of a Dove

"Interesting that the papers of record regret that they worked the Weinstein story, but never felt like they had enough to actually publish it.   Apparently they had a lower standard for the publication of the Iraqi WMDs and Russian hacking stories.   It makes one wonder what other big stories they are sitting on, that they can't quite bring themselves to publish, for whatever reason."

Malcolm, a reader

There was an obvious bear raid in the precious metals today.

We are nearing peak fraud, at least for this latest iteration of bubbles and busts.

A good man can speak truths most profoundly with his silences.   A wicked man tells lies with his.   A sin against the Spirit will not be forgiven.

What is a sin against the Spirit?   What is Truth?   Pilate asked that question of Truth itself. as truth stood before him in silence, and then turned and washed his hands of it. 

And so he condemned not the man, but himself, with his silence, while the Man redeemed the whole world, with his.

Have a pleasant evening.