08 February 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Flight to Safety, the Cup's Rim Is In

Gold spiked higher towards $1200 today on market troubles and a weaker dollar I might add.

It seems like the currency war is going through one of its hot spells.

Silver even managed to chalk up a decent gain, and is forming a little 'bowl' formation of its own on the weekly chart no less.

Gold is now quite technically overbought in the short term.  Let's see if we get a retracement or some other sort of action.  In the short term anything is possible.

I know I am not saying so much this year.  Perhaps that is just because the time for talking, for letting people know what was going on, was last year's business.

If you have listened to what the markets have been saying, if you have seen things with open eyes, then you ought to be mostly set, as best as you can.

And if you did not listen then, and kept running to see what the trolls and apologists were saying, looking for diversion and excitement, why would you listen to anything of substance now?   You will always find an excuse, always do what you have been doing all along, until you cannot.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Banking Troubles Worry Stocks

US equities hits new lows today, but managed to bounce back on some technical dip buying and short covering in the afternoon.

If they are going to put in a bottom, there are going to need some help from Europe where the bank stocks in particular look like they have been run through a threshing machine, several times.

Deutsche Bank is appearing very troubled, and Barclays trading was halted for a time today.

Have a pleasant evening.

06 February 2016

Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals For January 2016 Total 225.8 Tonnes

Shanghai Gold Exchange has decided to publish their gold withdrawal figures on a monthly basis rather than weekly.

For January 2016 there were 225.8 tonnes withdrawn from the exchange.

05 February 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Cup and Handle - How Sweet It Is

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!

Those who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.”

Jesse Livermore

I had such a feeling that these jokers were going get stuffed on the usual Non-Farm Payrolls precious metals hit.  And I may have had some modest wagers in that direction from this morning.

But for most of us, and for most of my own portfolio, we do not wager against The Bucket Shop and exhaust ourselves trying to play their short term wiggles, dodges and headfakes with their synthetic gold.

We 'get right and sit tight.'  And I am seeing confirmation after confirmation that the fundamentals on the precious metals are solid, to be understated about it perhaps when so many will be going hyperbolic.

There are still difficulties, and things could turn rather ugly on the political fronts.  Who can predict that sort of thing?  But based on the knowable, things are unfolding in a very rational manner for those who can see past the noisome rantings of the financiers and their economic status quo.

One might take measures to get their metals into more appropriate places for 'insurance.'  And that means out of any unallocated accounts, or places presided over by the bullion banks and their associates, where ownership could become a debating point under duress, as in the case of MF Global.

If Nick Laird's analysis of the 'gold float' is correct, then we should start seeing fireworks on the physical front sometime later this year.

I have drawn the beginnings of the 'cup and handle' on the chart. The 'handle' will form on the right, and will take the shape of a retracement from wherever the top of the cup may be.

It will not be an active formation until the retest is successful, the handle is set, and the price of gold breaks back out to new highs.

That is a lot of things that may or may not happen from here.

But for now I will just say, have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - That's Key Support, Bring On Next Week

Nice economic recovery.   Not.

Stocks have fallen to key support.  I still think the SP 500 is forming a symmetrical triangle or a bear flag with more downside to come, but we'll have to see how next week goes.

There will be no sustainable recovery until there is meaningful financial and economic reform.

The natives are restless, but confused.  And so the outcome is uncertain.

And if we listen to the well spun lies and vote in another 'establishment' candidate in a hope for change, while they have been bought and paid for by big money, backed by their respective political machines that have become so horribly compromised by the soft corporate bribery that passes under the label of 'campaign contributions,' then we we most certainly see no real reform, and no recovery.

Have a pleasant weekend.

04 February 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

Gold continued to advance higher and silver joined in, edging up to the cusp of the 15 handle.

They are a little short term overbought, and we are going to be enjoying another chapter in the ongoing fictional story of the US Economic Recovery tomorrow.

I refuse to draw the tentative 'cup and handle' formation on the charts for fear of jinxing it.  I know, but hey its hard for any trader to be perfectly rational ALL the time, especially in the teeth of a three year bear market that seems to defy all the facts and fundamentals.

There was little to no delivery activity for the PM's at The Bucket Shop yesterday.  The movement of bullion being shoved around the plate at least in the case of silver is noted in the reports below.

Let's see if gold can push up to that 'blue line' overhead on the chart and stick a close sometime this active month of February.

Everything about these markets and our glorious recovery reminds me of a predetermined decision about the future course of events, and monumental efforts to bring about their appearance by The Fed, the financial establishment's Adjustment Bureau.

And who then, after our little noted financial coup d'etat, is now the real Man in the High Castle?

Much Ado About Not So Much

Speaking of the Fed, I heard from a friend about a video from Mike Maloney that highlights a big drop in the Federal Reserve Banks aggregate Balance Sheet of about $20 Billion in December of last year.

There was some questioning and speculation about this being due to some behind the scenes banking crisis.

Although I don't read them as much anymore, a quick look at the Fed's H.4.1 release from December revealed this statement below by way of explanation.

Net-net the change was a bookkeeping maneuver in response to the 'Fixing America's Surface Transporation Act' (FAST) which was enacted on 4 December 2015.  They were required to transfer certain amounts in excess of $10B to the Treasury, where they would eventually end up anyway after expenses.  The Fed is a cost-based entitlement to the Banks.

Our first impulse when encountering an interesting diversion from the familiar ought to be to examine the available evidence and ask a lot of questions, especially with regard to facts.

But that does not mean that irregularities and unexplained things do not occur. Sometimes they do. And they are dismissive by the same type of 'normality bias' and ludicrous arguments by the apologists for the serial felons who have been rigging almost every market there is for the last ten years or so.

And there are plenty of odd things going around these days, swirling in the fog of 'currency war.'

Have a pleasant evening.

FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
For Release at
4:30 P.M. EST
December 31, 2015

Publication Note

The Board's H.4.1 statistical release, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks," has been modified to reflect the policies under which Federal Reserve Banks make payments of their residual net earnings to the U.S. Treasury.

The Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act (FAST), which was enacted on December 4, 2015, requires that aggregate Federal Reserve Bank surplus not exceed $10 billion. Therefore, any amount of aggregate Reserve Bank surplus that exceeds this limit will be remitted to the U.S. Treasury.

The line "Interest on Federal Reserve Notes due to U.S. Treasury" on table 6 has been replaced with "Earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury" and footnotes to tables 1, 5, and 6 have been similarly modified.

The amounts of the line items "Other liabilities and capital" on table 1, and "Surplus" on tables 5 and 6 reflect the payment of approximately $19.3 billion to Treasury on December 28, 2015, which was necessary to reduce aggregate Reserve Bank surplus to the $10 billion limitation in the FAST Act.