07 June 2008

SP 500 Daily and Weekly Charts May Target 1180 Before Year End


A word of caution is that charts cannot predict the future; no one and nothing can. They do provide a useful context for placing trades, marking changes in trend, and accomodating trading plans. As the market provides new information, the charts may change, and sometimes radically. There is a difference between "trading" and "predicting." Trading is what you do in the light of new company data and macroeconomic disclosures. Prophets go broke and then sell their predictions, whereas traders get by on their ability to process information and perform position and money management defensively as well as advantageously.

We see exogenous events as the biggest deltas to these charts. The two most likely will be a war, a major catastrophe, or perhaps even a more determined effort by the central banks to inflate the currencies and hold off at least the appearance of a major market break.

For what its worth, in our own trading accounts we flattened out on Friday near the close, having been considerly short the financial sector. We like to pull back to a short term cash position as we approach major support and resistance levels, and take an 'agile' trading stance with the ability to take short term positions in either direction while the market sorts itself out.

Our long term positions tend to be asset related, and we do not trade them.