13 September 2012

Gold Chart: The 'Cup' Has Formed As Confidence Continues to Erode

"A moment guessed-- then back behind the Fold
Immersed in Darkness, round the Drama rolled
Which, for the pleasure of Eternity,
He doth Himself contrive, enact, behold.

But if in vain, down on the stubborn floor
Of Earth, and up to Heaven's unopening Door,
You gaze Today, while You are You-- what of
Tomorrow, when You will be You, no more?

Omar Khayyám, Rubaiyat

Today's Fed statement confirmed that QE3 is here.

After some initial hesitation the markets shot higher, believing that the Fed would do 'whatever it takes' to bring down real unemployment and to protect the financial markets.

Given that most if not all of the stimulus provided by the Fed has gone to the top percent of the economy's participants, I am struggling with what has changed that will suddenly spread the wealth to the 99 percent. The trickle down theory? Oh please.

He is monetizing the wrong debt for the wrong people in the wrong ways.

Without reform, Bernanke can print until the dollars come home to roost, before he will meet any broad employment targets in this economic structure. Unless the wealthy start hiring people to push their wheelbarrows of money to the stores.

The country needs to find a backbone and act on reform. But like Achilles, it dithers on the beach. For what reasons we may never know for certain, until history has its say.

Gold and silver took off higher like scalded cats. The charts had predicted it but I did not believe it, at least not so quickly. But there it is.

Gold has completed a 'cup' on the daily chart.

Now we would need to see a nice 'handle' to go with it.

There certainly remains the possibility that the 'cup' could fail, and gold could fall back into its broad trading range. That would be manipulation, and it could continue to work for the time being. Modern money is a funny little magician that way. I don't think we have seen anything quite like it, even in some of the more famous manias.

Bonds are the mother of bubbles. But momma swings a big stick.

Here is a look at my 'shadow' chart on gold, that I keep in background to watch developing scenarios without having to engage in unnecessarily tedious redrawing of the published chart.

The 'rim' looks to be around 1770 to 1790.

If this works, the target for this formation would be 2000+ in the next two months or so.

There are larger patterns forming on the chart that call out higher targets.  As to where this ends, it ends when the economy is reformed and the median wage is healthy.

The chart situation in silver is similar, but the percentages are greater. The targets there would be roughly 43, and then 60+. This is by no means a top target.

One step at a time.  In the event of a liquidity panic or exogenous event the charts may defer.