25 October 2012

Hurricane Sandy Track for the Next Five Days



We may wish to keep an eye on this one for any potential impact on trading for the early part of next week.

It will probably not maintain a broad hurricane intensity, but it looks to have some serious momentum behind it, with the tides of a full moon at its back.

I am sure most Northeasterners remember the 'Halloween' storm of last year.

There is some question on how and where Sandy will make landfall on Monday or Tuesday. It could bring several feet of snow with it to Pennsylvania, and heavy rains to the NYC metropolitan area.

It will probably not maintain hurricane status, dropping to a serious tropical storm.

More significantly, depending on the storm surge direction, NY traders may wish to bring their water wings with them to the pits. It could be much worse than Hurricane Irene in that regard.

I have added this chart below because it shows the track most clearly and makes the last leg into the shore much more visible.  The storm damage will depend on the path this takes.  It could conceivably be anywhere from Boston to Washington at this point.

It may move further out to sea but the models make this seem less likely. We will know more in another day or so. Get those generators ready.

I have to add that a week ago when I started tracking this storm when it was off the Yucatan Peninsula, the ONLY model that showed it taking its current track was the Canadian model. Every other major model showed the storm moving much further harmlessly out to sea. Score one for Canada on the weather front.

One of my son's friends from school is a serious meteorologist in training. He keeps us updated on the latest thinking in the emerging science. He does it because he loves it. Even when they were in high school he spent a great deal of time on it.

What is his incentive to do this? It is not the expectation of a solid six figure income. It is the joy of learning, the ecstasy of understanding. And he may well be rewarded for this, but that will be a benefit, not the primary objective.

In the days when people considered what they did for a living as a craft, in the manner of craftsman, this attitude towards one's vocation was not so uncommon as it might be today, when everything and everyone is considered just a transaction.

Of course not everyone and every job can rise to that level. But such regard for honest labor was considered an important ideal, and society honored those who honored it.

In our world today, everything is money, no matter how it is achieved, including theft and fraud and the exploitation of slave like labor.  Look who we choose as our role models, and our leaders.   The attitudes and mores of human society moves in cycles, and I think we are at the low ebb of this one.

Think about the implications of this, and then see why we are where we are today, in the teeth of a storm.