27 December 2012

Gold: This Time Last Year

As you can see, gold had a 'tap tap' bottom at the end of last year, with a final intraday low on the 29th, the second last trading day of the year.

It rallied in January back to where it had been at the beginning of December.

We may be seeing a repeat of what I think is an 'end-of-year' phenomenon this year.

If so, we *might* see one more low this week, probably tied in with some sort of selloff related to the 'fiscal cliff.'

This sort of thing could be government related but it seems more probable that it is related to the gaming of large short positions as they are marked to market at year end. That, and of course, the obvious price manipulation that allows big players to pick up assets like miners and bullion on the cheap.

The 'bombing' of gold with large contract sell orders in quiet periods is leaving tracks all over the tape, that most can see, except if they are willfully blind.

It would not be surprising if we don't see exactly that double tap bottom again this year. We had an odd overnight plunge to 1649 on futures open after Christmas, and that may mark the bottom.  

We *could* go back down to visit there again, and maybe even the prior double low of 1636 from just before the holiday. If it were me I would consider throwing a curve ball. And maybe hit the metals the first week in January very hard if the specs start jumping ahead of the rally early. Its hard to beat the house in the short term, especially when the cards are stacked, and they can see your hand.

But as Eliot Spitzer observed, when he was the NY Attorney General, what surprised them when they broke the investigation of manipulation by the banks was not the cleverness of their schemes, but the obviousness, the heavy handed, almost clumsy thuggery.

'No time for that. Give me a diablo sandwich, a Dr. Pepper, and make it quick. 
What we're dealing with here is a complete lack of respect for the law. '