30 December 2012

The End Game

About seven months ago Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor put forward a analysis called 'The End Game.'

I prefer to call it 'The Great Reset.'

I am not sure I agree with his analysis or his timing.    That is a genteel way of saying that it is possible, but not probable and quite possibly crackers.  A gentleman never wishes to inflict discomfort on anyone.

But this does seem to be that time of year to review forecasts predicting doom, gloom, and demise in 2013, and this is one of them that has made the rounds, then and again.  

If nothing else, there is good money to be made in the gloom and doom business.   People often like a whiff of danger-at-a-distance to jolt their jaded psyches. That explains the attraction of horror movies.  And schadenfreude is always diverting for the aspiring ubermench and less amibitious sociopaths.  It is always the other guy that gets it, and well deserved, at least in their minds.

Such a financial reset and reallocation of wealth is not necessary, but it is only necessary that people think that it is.  And there are those who would always enjoy the opportunity presented by a crisis, especially when their illusions and delusions seem to be running out of steam.   A fresh scam beats working for a living.

Now that the 21 December 2012 Mayan end- of-all-things-as-we-know-them has belly flopped, let's see how we do next year.

And by the way, Happy New Year, in advance.

The End Game