15 February 2013

Gold at Technical Extreme In the 'Wash/Rinse' Cycle of This Decline

The data on this chart is from yesterday's close, but I have drawn in the price action.

The technical data indicate that gold is getting to the end of the 'wash' portion of the 'wash-rinse' cycle in this decline.

So we may get a bounce soon, and it may go as high as 1680. But gold needs to break this intermediate downtrend.

Note that the CRB does not reflect a similar price decline in commodity prices. The divergence of gold (and silver) from the CRB and stocks is remarkable.

I do think this is an indication of the currency war. So when it comes, I think the turn higher may be quite violent. Best for non-combatants to stay out of the way as best they can by not trading the short term and avoiding leverage.