30 September 2013

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Slouching Towards Stupidity

There are two separate political events that are occurring here for those of you who may be confused about them.

First, there is a funding showdown for the new government fiscal year, which starts at midnight tonight.

What is desired is a 'continuing resolution' or an actual agreement on some sort of budget that funds the existing programs that have already been enacted into law.

The second even is separate, the raising of the debt ceiling. The Congress used to do a perfunctory vote on each debt issuance from the Treasury. That was changed some years ago to a debt ceiling against which the Treasury could issue debt, and which is raised periodically in response to the level of public debt and Treasury issuance. The Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew has estimated that he will not be able to play any more accounting games beyond 17 October.

So, keep in mind these are two separate events. One is the issuance of a formal or a pro forma budget, known as a Continuing Resolution for the new fiscal year, and the deadline for that is midnight.

And the second event is the debt ceiling, which had no hard date but is estimated to become a problem around 17 October.

Needless to say these events have the extremes of both Left and Right out baying at the moon, with the great middle of ordinary people wondering who these people are, and how we got ourselves into this situation.