16 January 2014

Comex Warehouse Potential Claims Per Deliverable Ounce Rises to Historical High 112 to 1

"The false man is more false to himself than to any one else.  He may despoil others, but himself is the chief loser. The world's scorn he might sometimes forget, but the knowledge of his own perfidy is undying."

Horace Mann

An almost shocking decline in deliverable (registered) gold has taken the ratio of open interest to deliverable gold to 112 to 1.

This is not a default scenario since the supply of eligible gold in the warehouses remains adequate and at historically manageable levels as shown in the last chart below.

Rather, it suggests that higher prices will be required to persuade more bullion owners to place their inventory up for delivery.

That higher price, of course depends on who those owners are, and how motivated they might be by profits from their metals trades.  For some interested parties it is enough to be the very close friends of the Central Banks, with benefits that make them incredibly rich, self-satisfied, and occasionally audacious to the point of over-reaching.

But of course, it is well to remember that the Comex has become the tail wagging the dog, as the gold bullion markets have shifted to the East.

February may be an interesting month, in an interesting year.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.