05 January 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Flight to Safety

It could be hard to see the action in gold and silver today as anything but a 'flight to safety' as people with leveraged stock positions were unwinding them and seeking safety in Treasuries and precious metals.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

Gold has moved to a key resistance point, and its moves for the rest of the week will carry some importance. I shaved my downside stock bets towards the close, and am holding gold but no silver at this time. I lightened up the gold position a little as well, losing from of the positions I had taken on the recent lows.

Gold needs to break this downtrend. It is obvious on the charts. Everything else is just longer term news, but short term noise.

China continues to execute an economic strategy in adding to its gold bullion, with 2014 being a 2000+ tonnes year for them. Where they are exactly going with this is not known for sure, but to just ignore it is most likely a serious error.
Nothing of note occurred in the Comex warehouse or delivery reports.
I have become more aware of a movement on the economic right to promote their particular brand of the economic philosophy known as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). 
Apparently the game plan is to use take on that 'new era' idea that suggests that income taxes are no longer required.   Therefore we should see either an elimination of the income tax, or a big reduction in the direct taxing structure back to a small flat tax, and perhaps a consumption tax, pushed by some lobbyists and individuals in the GOP Congress.  
The US would just print what they needed, as determined in the budgeting process.
However, if the currency should ever get into valuation trouble, which theory suggests not, but reality suggests it will, then we would see a big push to cut discretionary spending to 'save the currency.'  And after all, who would not wish to rise to the occasion and 'save the Dollar?'
Remember the meme that 'Reagan proved that deficits don't matter?'  And how quickly that notion was discarded when the deficits could be attributed to spending that didn't line the one percent's pockets through deficit spending on pre-emptive wars?  And how hard they and their academic friends pushed the theory that 'efficient markets' needed little or no regulation? These jokers have no shame.
What makes anyone think that stimulus or financial innovation, even of the dodgiest new era type, would not be as abused as anything else in this age of yawning inequality in money and power?
More laws, financial innovations, and all the bells and whistles and magical thinking that our leadership can conjure up will not suffice to replace the important first step that faces us:  meaningful political and financial reform.  And unfortunately there is no will to do this yet, and the credibility trap remains a significant obstacle for both parties and many of the thought leaders in finance and economics.  
And so we must protect ourselves accordingly. 

Have a pleasant evening.