20 April 2015

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Whistling Past the Boneyard

"The fact is that white-collar criminals are, in general, incredibly good at deluding themselves that they’re good people, even when they clearly aren’t."

Felix Salmon

"Sauve le voleur de la potence, et il te coupera la gorge."

French proverb

There was not much in the way of US economic news this morning.

A calendar of major macroeconomic news is included below.

Stocks were in rally mode in volumes much lighter than the selling volumes last Friday. Smells like a wash and rinse may be underway.

The big tickle du jour was the news that China might be stimulating their economy more, despite the bubble in equities.

A major Chinese developer just defaulted on their dollar denominated bonds. Who could not get enthusiastic about buying financial paper in light of that?

IBM beat its greatly and recently lowered earnings and revenues numbers after the bell. It is sad to see what IBM is becoming. I remember them as a fierce, often domineering competitor from many years ago. Now that seem to be shrinking, badly mismanaged, and rotting beneath a veneer of accounting gimmicks and spin.

How does a hardware and software big black box vendor reinvent themselves in the era of the internet and distributed computing? They have been spinning the outsourcing wheel for some time, and the latest big whoop is 'cloud computing' which is fiercely competitive and for which they do not have all that many competitive advantages.

I am thinking that, ex-seasonal hyperbole that will get adjusted out over time, the US economy was stagnant to contracting in the first quarter. It will be written off to the weather, probably with the real numbers coming out in the third iteration when no one cares any longer.

The stock market is a shell of its former self, more a wealth transfer system than a capital investment mechanism in a vibrant and growing economy.

Things will change and be reformed, but the price to be paid is now quite high.

Have a pleasant evening.