29 May 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week - Risk Management

There is quite a bit of macroeconomic data coming out for the US next week. I have included the calendar below.

Among these will be the Non-Farm Payrolls number for May, which will be released on Friday.

This data will be watched closely because while the markets are sloughing off the newly revised contraction for GDP in the 1Q, they are nervously trying to maintain their belief in the story that this was some sort of weather-related anomaly.  The more contemporaneous data is showing higher than expected unemployment claims and a truly awful Chicago PMI has them edgy to say the least. So next week's data will be very important since it is so current.

There was overnight commentary on the gold market.  It is a broad summary of the market that paints a broader picture of what may be going on.   It also sets the stage for the currency war.  I urge you to read it here.

Of course there are other ways to explain all these things.   I have read these explanations presented by very serious people.   But I have been following this map or model of what is unfolding since roughly 2000, and it continues to surprise me as encompassing many more pieces of data from different places quite well without major modifications.  

If there has been any major adjustment it has been the timing elements.   These things seem to unfold much more slowly than one would expect.   And the audacity of the oligarchs, which is a counterpart to the surprising apathy of the public to scandal after scandal, is also a bit surprising.

Moreso than ever I am convinced that the lack of reform and gross mispricing of risk is going to catch up with the US financial system, and the results may be quite impressive.  There are bubbles which are being ignored again with a cavalier dismissal.  
So I do now think we are going to see a third financial crisis sometime within the next two years.   And there may be noticeable political consequences because of this.

Have a pleasant weekend.