28 October 2015

US Dollar Gets a Boost Higher From Perceived Hawkish FOMC Statement

The US dollar caught a bid on that 'hawkish' Fed statement, sending a number of commodities including the precious metals gold and silver lower.

Gold and silver looked like a pump and dump with the early rally higher which smelled like a set up.

About the last thing that the real economy needs is a truly stronger dollar.  And I do not believe that most of the FOMC members would wish for that, but with the rest of the developed world seeming to ease, and some aggressively so, it is a difficult position for them to manage with credibility.

The primary beneficiaries of a strong dollar policy are the big holders of dollars who can use them to buy up attractive foreign assets more cheaply, and the holders of dollar denominated debt.

It be roughly said to be a policy that sets Main Street versus Wall Street, although the courtiers of the moneyed interests will proclaim the benefits of even more cheaper imports.  Too bad the public has little spare income with which to purchase them.  But that is a tradeoff that in the short term also benefits Big Money with little domestic wage pressure as more people have less employment prospects.

It is hard to say what the Fed will do for sure, and I doubt that even they know what they will do.  Today was designed to dampen the asset bubble a bit, and to once again caution the market that a rate increase may be coming, provided the data gives the Fed cover to do so without becoming the bag-holder for another recession going into an exceptionally political season.

It is much too early to tell, but judging from the SP stock futures, the Street is not necessarily buying what the Fed is selling, at least for today.

But in the short term, antics may prevail.