20 November 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold Option Expiration Tuesday 24 November

"And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat?  This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's!

And if you cut them down, and you're just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?"

Robert Bolt, A Man For All Seasons

"Sherman, who started with so much, lost everything. But he gained his soul. Whereas I, you see, who started with so little, gained everything. 'What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world, but loses...' Ah well. There are compensations."

Tom Wolfe, Bonfire of the Vanities

Gold and silver struggled to hold on to support today in a lackluster trade. They faded into what might best be described as an irrelevant close.

There was a fairly long intraday comment here called 'An Essay Considering the Current Monetary Orthodoxy and Gold.'

In this I consider a statement that seems to represent the picture, a collection of  received catch phrases, that many financial journalists, and economists for that matter, walk around repeating as the commonly accepted dogma that signifies good standing in their profession.

To take issue with it is to imperil your standing in the acolytes of the insiders, the very serious people, in the halls of Anglo-American power.

There are a number of these orthodoxies about.  The 'efficient markets hypothesis' was a good one, a real knee-slapper that only made sense if you had already surrendered your intellect to a world that kept you, and rewarded you.

It presumes that all men are as good as angels, and act in a group with perfect rationality and selflessness, in a devotion to the highest benefits for all.  And if they are left alone at this, their works will continue to become even more virtuous and productive.

And a whole movement in economics and politics tore down decades of sound regulations and cast them on the fires of ideology, burning the books of the past on the basis of this tenet of modern economic certitude.

There was another overnight commentary, a reprint really that might be of some technical interest, titled 'What Is Driving the Price of Gold?'  It was something I had done in 2008 that considered the price of gold across a wide variety of financial data and sought to find the greatest influences on its price.

Alas, I am not so sure that if I did this same thing again that it would 'work.'  The markets have progressed quite a bit since then, mostly in the wrong directions when it comes to price discovery and sound investment practice.

We will be getting a second estimate of Q3 GDP next week and a few other real economy odds and ends, their reliability of varying quality.

There will be an option expiration for gold on the Comex, Tuesday 24 November.

And as a reminder, next Thursday 26 November will be a holiday in the US for Thanksgiving and of course the markets will be closed.

Little matters now though except for the Federal Reserve and what they will choose to do with our paper money.

Speaking of which, someone let me know that there will be a 'special meeting' of the FOMC on Monday November 23.

Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures

It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 AM on Monday, November 23, 2015, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.

Meeting Date: Monday, November 23, 2015
They issue these meeting notices occasionally.  From a quick glane at past notices they seem to have one of these almost every month.  It is probably not for anything of immediate consequence, but let's keep an eye on it.

Gresham's Law still works, apparently, and what remains in the vaults of the West is increasingly the synthetic gold and silver of hypothecated paper claims, while the real physical bullion continues flowing East in surprisingly large amounts, almost unremarked and unmentioned.

Speaking of Gresham's Law, there was little activity domestically at The Bucket Shop, but another large chunk of gold left the Brinks warehouse in Hong Kong.  bullion levels there have fallen well below one million ounces again.  That is less than a week's delivery in Shanghai.

Does Gresham's Law work on people. I mean the more blatantly self serving and corrupt a people may become, does that society start to raise up its worst to the heights, while the sound and virtuous retreat to their studies and private lives?  The current field of candidates for the highest office and the ways they talk could make one wonder about this.

We keep quite a few secrets in our proud and exceptional society.  Because we have quite a bit of which we ought to be ashamed, that needs to remain hidden, and cannot bear the light of day.

Have a pleasant weekend.