28 April 2016

The Next Battleground for Gold Will Be At 1550 If the Cup and Handle Formation Completes

If and when gold breaks out of this cup and handle formation, which is a matter of probability and not certainty, the next real battleground in a new bull market will be around $1550. One of the more interesting variables will be the manner of any breakout, and the 'time' it takes to reach a minimum measuring objective.

This is quite appropriate as 1550 marks the major support level for the channel in which gold had been moving prior to the recent bear market.

A successful cup and handle formation, should this occur, would mark a bottom for gold and quite possibly a resumption of another leg of the bull market.

It will be interesting to see how the future movement of gold as a cross to the US dollar may unfold. If the money masters were wise, they would permit it to rise back into the old trend channel and seek to find a balance in the wagers with the available physical supply.

However, wisdom so often being overlooked by power and overwhelmed by it, we may have to consider that a 'break' in the market may precipitate this activation of the cup and handle and therefore the next move higher, and a challenge to 1550 that completes rather more quickly then might otherwise happen.

In seeking to extend control and overreaching, people sometimes bring about the very circumstance that guided the fear that led to their overconfidence and misjudgment.
O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!

Walter Scott, Marmion
And this is what continues to muddy the waters in too many markets these days.  That there has been and continues to be manipulation of prices of too many important benchmarks and assets is no longer a serious question for open minds.    There are still too many minds that remain stubbornly, or wilfully, closed to the necessity for reform.   It is not the original offense but the overreach and coverup that knocks holes in the edifice of established power.

Rather, what remains puzzling are the details: the extent of it, the actual players who are involved besides the usual suspects, and of course, any motivations that may exist then the mere greed for illicit and outsized trading profits.