03 January 2017

Charts at the Market Close - Things You May Not Want To Hear, But May Wish To Know

This year I think that I am going to be publishing all of the charts in one posting, rather than splitting them up between stocks and metals.

Today was a lazier trading day than the numbers might have indicated. It was easy to lift stocks today, in other words.

There was little of note in the Comex reports from the last day of 2016.

I was looking over some old charts over the weekend, and I think that the direction of the gold and silver markets in the first couple of months will be quite telling for the rest of 2017.

The key level will be for the metals to break out above their 'election night' highs when the markets realized that Trump had won.

This atmosphere and tone of the markets reminds me of the period during which the big cup and handle retraced 50 percent or thereabouts in gold, and then took off on a steady run to its all time high.  Remember that?

Still, without the breakout, we have nothing but what we have, which is a sideways chop.

A long time reader sent me this link to this live updating chart that compares the metals prices on the dollar and yuan markets.

Another honored patron introduced me today to the twitter feed of Harald Malmgren, a former presidential adviser to JFK, LBJ, Nixon Ford, US Senate Finance.

I thought quite a few things that he said about stocks and other matters were quite to the point.

Some of Harald Malmgren's tweets from earlier today in descending order by time:
His [Ben Bernanke] continuing denial that QE wrought damage suggests it is he who cannot handle the truth.

Correlation of 1 across all asset classes combined with high leverage & narrow exits means catastrophically fast implosion, sooner or later.

Gold a really big subject. I'll save my thoughts on gold for another day.

What i am trying to point out is that markets and even the Fed are acting on unreliable,overoptimistic official data (aka fake news).

World trade contracting,growth stalling, but CNBC advertisers, Bloomberg customers & political leaders don't want downbeat news. Market illusions.

BEA uses own unique, low deflator (never CPI) to get higher inflation adjusted GDP growth rate, higher consumer spending, hiding feeble real growth.

Most jobs data cherry picked, manipulated, guessed. Declining payroll tax deductions published every day ignored. Job gains illusion.

Occasional glimpses of real economic news reminds how misleading is WH economic recovery spin and its adoption in the form of MSM fake news.

Financial leverage higher now than 2008, systemic risk greater, most jobs created part time, median income down, debt multiple, wealth gap bigger, etc.

On that we seem to agree. A phony recovery reliant on contrived fake data transmitted as fake news, now becoming "post truth".

At this stage of my life you get my views unadulterated with hidden ambitions.

What more can I say after that?

Have a pleasant evening.