Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seat at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance. ”
Winston Churchill, My Early Life 1930, p. 229
"The Commonwealth of Rome grew great by the misery of the rest of mankind. The Romans, like others as soon as they grew rich, grew corrupt; and in their corruption sold the lives and freedoms of themselves, and of one another.”
Samuel Johnson, Review of Memoirs of the Court of Augustus, 1756
"Trust in God, but everyone else shows the data. Check the facts and the underlying assumptions. The reason should be obvious, but people deal with the complexities of life by using assumptions, which are a kind of shorthand way of breaking reality down into manageable chunks. Everyone does it.
But it is useful, and prudent, to check those assumptions you make, and that other people are making, to see if they are still valid, especially if they involve things that are important (cf. Long Term Capital Management). Is there a bus coming down the road you are crossing? Are you financially solvent? Have you allowed for lower probability but potentially corrosive and existential risks? (Taleb's famous Black Swan). Those sorts of things."
Jesse, Investment Performance for 2007, December 21, 2007
Frank Herbert, Chapterhouse Dune, March 1985
"Psychopaths don’t feel they have psychological or emotional problems, and they see no reason to change their behavior to conform with societal standards they do not agree with. Psychopaths see the rules and expectations of society as inconvenient and unreasonable impediments to their own behavioral expression. They make their own rules, both as children and as adults.
Many of the antisocial acts of psychopaths lead to criminal charges and convictions. But not all psychopaths end up in jail. Many of the things they do escape detection or prosecution, or are on 'the shady side of the law.' For them, antisocial behavior may consist of phony stock [and crypto] promotions, questionable business practices, spouse or child abuse, and so forth. Many others do things that, though not necessarily illegal, are nevertheless unethical, immoral, or harmful to others: philandering or cheating on a spouse to name a few."
Robert Hare, How to Spot Predators Before They Attack, December 5, 2017
"They know of no solutions to the paradoxes of the Middle East and Europe, the Far East and Africa except the landing of Marines. Being baffled, and also being very tired of being baffled, they have come to believe that there is no way out—except war—which would remove all the bewildering paradoxes of their tedious and now misguided attempts to construct peace. In place of these paradoxes they prefer the bright, clear problems of war—as they used to be. For they still believe that 'winning' means something, although they never tell us what.
Some men want war for sordid, others for idealistic, reasons; some for personal gain, others for impersonal principle. But most of those who consciously want war and accept it, and so help to create its 'inevitability,' want it in order to shift the locus [epicenter] of their problems."
C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III, 1958 pp. 86-89
Stocks slumped and then rallied hard into the close.
This was the usual Monday short squeeze where they jam up the specs who took short positions in the market as a safeguard over the weekend.
Gold and silver were slammed, but they both bounced, with silver showing an impressive rise for a decent gain.
I wonder if Bessent and his oligarch buddies are running low on ammo like Hegseth is.
VIX came in hot with slumping stocks this morning, and then collapsed back down into the afternoon.
The Dollar popped at the open of NY trading, and then fell sharply into the close.
The market here is largely smoke and mirrors. Be careful.
Bitcoin managed to hold a decent bounce. Good for them. Enjoy it while it lasts.
A little economic data on jobs from ADP will be coming out tomorrow morning.
Wednesday is the more important release when we get some inflation data. Alas, it's already a bit dated because it will not take into account the inflationary effects of the Iran war.
I keep playing scenarios on the outcome of this global adventurism, and they always seem to come out from very bad to disastrous.
As I have said, the US decision to participate in Netanyahu's war will be viewed in retrospect with the Germany invasion of Russia in Operation Barbarossa.
The way things are going if we are able to have unimpeded midterm elections, not by any means a sure thing, then the GOP will probably lose their Congressional majority and the Democrats will be able to make some headway in reining in this imperial presidency.
Even better, if the Democrats can displace Schumer and Jefferies from their leadership we might see some more meaningful reform. But that does not seem likely at the moment.
Have a pleasant evening.
