Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Synthetic Assets: Bupkis from the Land of Zilch

 

"Ordinarily, the financial risk in a market, and hence the risk to the economy at large, is limited because the assets traded are finite.  There are only so many houses, mortgages, shares of stock, bushels of corn, [bars of silver], or barrels of oil in which to invest.  But a synthetic instrument has no real assets.  It is simply a bet on the performance of the assets it references.

That means the number of synthetic instruments is limitless, and so is the risk they present to the economy.  Increasingly, synthetics became bets made by people who had no interest in the referenced assets.  Synthetics became the chips in a giant casino, one that created no economic growth even when it thrived, and then helped throttle the economy when the casino collapsed."

Carl Levin, US Congress, Wall Street and the Financial Crisis, April 27, 2010

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over; the martyr dies and his rule begins.”

Søren Kierkegaard, The Journals of Søren Kierkegaard, 1938

"They have ignored the abuses of my people. 'Peace, peace!' they say, where there is no peace. They have acted shamefully, committing many atrocities. And they are not ashamed, they do not even know how to blush. Therefore they will be among the fallen; in the time of judgement they shall fall."

Jeremiah 6:14-15

"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States.  I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.  When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank.  You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families.  That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin!  Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin!

You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out."

Andrew Jackson, meeting with Bankers in Philadelphia, February 1834


Gold and silver are assets without counterparty risk if held directly because the bullion itself is the asset. 

Obviously there is pricing involved, because the value of all goods is determined in markets these days.

Synthetic assets, on the other hand, are literally propositions that are weighed upon in varying degrees by counter-party risk. 

The less tied to a tangible asset through a valid legal instrument, the greater the risk.

Certain new 'digital assets' are as the distillation of a synthetic instrument, with virtually no inherent value. 

They are the hallmark of this new era.  Such are the times.

The Non-Farm Payroll report was a disastrous miss, which *could* be a play to provoke the Fed to cut interest rates.

But this accumulation of sovereign debt increases the counterparty risk of holding Treasuries and Dollars, which are debt instruments of zero duration, economic theories to the contrary notwithstanding.  Physical force is a very artificial asset upon which to rely.

Gold and silver rallied.

Uncle Buck slipped off the 99 handle.

Bitcoin has gone to backtest its recent breakout from its trading range.  It does not appear to be a valid 'flight to safety asset' and is heavily correlated to speculation in the tech stock bubble. 

But let's keep an open mind.

The 'war' with Iran has been planned with a surprisingly short attention span.  And its progress shows.

I am deeply concerned about a cycle of escalation by Netanyahu and Trump to what has been so far been 'unthinkable' to US policy-makers.   And these are just the guys who would do it. 

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

And have a pleasant weekend. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - They Become Creatures of Unthinkable Horror

 

"I wonder whether people who ask God to interfere openly and directly in our world quite realise what it will be like when He does. It will be God without disguise; something so overwhelming that it will strike either irresistible love or irresistible horror into every creature. It will be the time when we discover which side we really have chosen, whether we realised it before or not. Now, today, this moment, is our chance to choose the right side. God is holding back to give us that chance. It will not last for ever."

C. S. Lewis, Mere Christianity, 1944

"They live out their days in prosperity, and slide peacefully down into hell."

Job 21:13

"Hell for all eternity for so little in exchange. A life of good or evil, the hope of Heaven or the despair of Hell, Faustus stands as a reminder that the choice between these two absolutes also falls to us. The lofty mind of man can be imprisoned by the artifices of its own making. If there are damned souls in Hell, it is because men blind themselves.”

E.A. Bucchianeri, Faust: My Soul Be Damned for the World, 2008

“Each day we are becoming a creature of splendid glory, or one of unthinkable horror.”

C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity, 1952

“There was a certain rich man who was splendidly clothed in purple and fine linen, and who lived each day in luxury.  At his gate lay a poor man named Lazarus, who was covered with sores.  As Lazarus lay there longing for scraps from the rich man’s table, the dogs would come and lick his sores.

Finally, the poor man died and was carried by the angels to be with Abraham.  The rich man also died and was buried, and his soul went to the place of the dead.  There, in torment, he saw Abraham in the far distance with Lazarus at his side.

The rich man shouted, ‘Father Abraham, have some pity!  Send Lazarus over here to dip the tip of his finger in water and cool my tongue.  I am in anguish in these flames.’  But Abraham said to him, ‘My son, remember that during your lifetime you had everything you wanted, and Lazarus had nothing.  So now he is here being comforted, and you are in anguish.  And there is a great chasm separating us.  No one can cross over to you from here, and no one can cross over to us from there.’

Then the rich man said, ‘Please, Father Abraham, at least send him to my father’s home.  For I have five brothers, and I want him to warn them so they don’t end up in this place of torment.’  But Abraham said, ‘Moses and the prophets have warned them. Your brothers can read what they wrote.’

The rich man replied, ‘No, Father Abraham! But if someone is sent to them from the dead, then they will repent of their sins and turn to God.’  But Abraham said, ‘If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’”

Luke 16:19-31

The sin of the rich man in the parable of Lazarus was not that he had been given great wealth, even though has no gratitude, and thinks that it is all because of his own merits.  No, his sin is that his pride made him blind to the suffering of Lazarus, who sat every day on his doorstep.  He saw, but did not care.

It was in the torment of the abyss that the rich man's eyes were opened.  Looking across the great chasm he finally sees Lazarus and holy Abraham.  And the first thing that the rich man does is to beg for favors and comfort for himself. 

He feels no shame, no repentance, never once saying that he is sorry.  Even as his eyes were opened, his heart remained hardened in the grip of his greed.  His sins are the chasm that separates him from salvation.  He holds himself apart from the abundant grace of God.

Nations that have been blessed can blind themselves to the misuse of their power and good fortune, given to them by God, to oppress and subjugate others, and please their greed and vanity.  They exalt themselves as the greatest good, the exceptional— even as they oppress and plunder and murder.  Until at long last God breaks the backbone of their power, and with chastisements humbles them.

One has come back from the dead and spoken to us, we who oppress the weak and murder the prophets. 'The more secret God's hand is, the more powerful — the more silent, the more awful.'   And you will see the hand of God, chastening the powerful, and bringing low those who murder his sheep. 

The Dollar is hanging on to the 99 handle. 

VIX ticked higher.

Gold and silver were once again hit by program selling.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow.

Stocks were slumping but managed to finish off the lows.

The mispricing of risk in the asset markets is being clouded by the fog of war, led by a vanguard of lies and hubris.

"Do not be deceived, for God is not mocked.  What a man sows, so shall he reap."
Galatians 6:7

The head of DHS, Kristi Noem, was fired today and will be replaced by a more adeptly verbal knucklehead who has been getting a lot of play recently on the servile news outlets. 

The appeals of this Administration to Christian nationalism in aggressive military actions is as repugnant a display of blasphemy as we have seen since they were burning crosses for hatred in the 1930s.

We are in the grips of madness. 

And we are ill-served by our leadership and their elite, and the mainstream media that are failing to keep the American public honestly informed. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Deceits of the Predator Class

 

"Time and again we hope for better leaders, but all too often those hopes are dashed.  The reason is that power causes people to lose the kindness and modesty that got them elected, or they never possessed those sterling qualities in the first place.  In a hierarchically organised society, the Machiavellis are one step ahead.  They have the ultimate secret weapon to defeat their competition.  They’re shameless.”

Rutger Bregman, Humankind: A Hopeful History, 2020

"The concentration of psychopathic and sociopathic personalities in positions of power, whether it be in the workplace or in political areas, emphasizes the need for balance of power, transparency, and the rule of law.  

Utopian designs for social organization that rely on perfectly rational and naturally self-governing individuals is not very practical. The fact that for some percentage of the population, from one to five percent, the lack of a conscience is a very real factor in their own behaviour, knocks down flat anarchical frameworks where reliance is placed upon some assumption of 'natural goodness' of everyone.  Not everyone is just like everyone else.  

There is a reason why throughout human history good people have found it necessary to organize themselves for their own protection. Not everyone is good, and laws provide for the protection of the weak, the vulnerable, and the innocent from the predators among us."

Jesse, Snakes in Suits: Predators Among Us, 26 April 2017

"We may make ourselves popular by telling our fellow citizens that they have made discoveries, conceived inventions, and made improvements.  We may boast that we are the chosen people; we may even thank God that we are not like other men.  But after all it will be but flattery, and the delusion, the self deceit of the Pharisees."

John Adams, Letter to John Taylor, 29 July 1814

 

Tonight is Daisy's monthly visit to the vet.  She has allergies that require a monthly injection in addition to the pills she takes every day.  She also has a heart murmur that requires some monitoring and daily medication.  She is worth it.

So here are the charts as they are at this time.  I will adjust any differences in the chart postings tomorrow.

I think it is pretty evident that this Administration has a keen eye on the stock markets, and frosting reality to make it appear better than it really is.

Bitcoin looks to be staging a breakout attempt for the long wedge I highlighted yesterday.  If it succeeds then it may run higher a bit.  And if it fails, then the wedge may continue working forward.

Gold and silver have been gaining the attention of Wall Street this week.  The shorts may be using this opportunity of relaxed oversight and increased market 'tinkering' to square up those short positions.

Or they may be doubling down.  And a turn of events in the geopolitical situation could crush them.   

What is unsustainable will not be sustained.

The leadership of today is perishing.  They do not yet realize it.  But their regret and surprise when the time comes will be as monumental as their egos. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Good Shepherd's Light of Love

 

"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves.  By their fruits you will know them."

Matthew 7:15-16

"Love will not come from the hearts of those who are fallen into wickedness: they are the fruit of hate, deceit, greed, fear, pride, possession, and aggression.  And they will not only forsake love, they will eventually come to condemn it, and persecute it —  and thereby condemn themselves.

For the people of God love is the way to know if what we believe is with Him, or from something else;  if we are walking with Him, or with something else;  if the one who speaks is speaking for Him, or for something else;  if we are keeping Him in our hearts, or something else; if we love Him, or ourselves, or something else.

Love does not speak with hate or fear or derision, but with the fullness of existence, joy and mercy.   Love is ridiculed and trampled upon by those in opposition to His creation.  When you are in doubt or confusion about what is true and what is false, look for the light of love. This is the Holy Spirit moving in the world.

Love is not what we do, but how we do what we do.  Love is found in the most ordinary things, not in grand gestures and elaborate mannerisms.  It resides in small daily acts of kindness and fellowship, done lovingly and with care, for His sake.   

The hardened heart judges others, while ignoring its own sins, thinking itself good.   Love is mercy, as it shows us our commonality with our fellow humanity as a weak and sinful creature.  Creation is a gift from God, to which we bring our own good use and order in His name. And if we are wise, with our reverent humility and wonder.

Only love is creative and productive. Only love is accepting and uplifting, able to bring all things forward to His plan and make them new. Love consecrates life, while sin desecrates and destroys in its lust for possession and will to power.  Love is the way to be abundant and merciful in a time of spiritual wickedness, and dark powers in high places.

God is love, the essence of all existence.  And love endures all."

Jesse, Love Is the Refuge of the Way, June 24, 2017

“I am the good shepherd. The good shepherd lays down his life for his sheep."

John 10:11

And the war progresses the antics on the risk markets gets more interesting and volatile.

Today the stocks they pumped up yesterday dropped quite a bit in the early trade.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

And they took back quite a few of those losses as the day wore on.

Gold and silver were hammered pretty hard, almost to a comical degree.  Maybe they are trying to get their Non-Farm Payoll jollies out of the way early this week.

That was program selling without regard to pricing and market equilibrium IMHO.  They were probably cleaning out stop-loss orders, and giving themselves a chance to square up their own naked short positions.

Ok, let's see where we go from here.

Uncle Buck caught a flight to safety bid today.

VIX spiked and then dropped.

I have not been catching any details on the Asian gold trade so far this week.  I'll have to make time to look since the guy I usually follow has been on my 'timeline' on X.  Did I use that term right?  lol

This war is going to be getting very, very messy as time goes on.  

Many if not most of the details from the main media outlets are rubbish.  

Especially the big outlets in the US and the British papers and media.  

Stenographers to power as some have said.

There are more than the usual number of false prophets running around.  

They way to weigh them is to see how they reflect in the mirror of love.

Contrary to what some wise men have said, I think that the devils can imitate humility, although it is difficult and certainly not in their nature.  And they are specialists in pious hypocrisy and false virtues.

But true humility is founded in love, more specifically the love of God and the desire to do His will.  

That the devils cannot fake.  It is contrary to their nature.

So if you are at times feeling lost or confused and overwhelmed, look for the Good Shepherd, and His light of love.  It calls to you, and will lead you safely home. 

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - From the Desert to the Mountain Top

 

"Only the man who has had to face despair is really convinced that he needs mercy. Those who do not want mercy never seek it. It is better to find God on the threshold of despair than to risk our lives in a complacency that has never felt the need of forgiveness.”

Thomas Merton, No Man Is an Island, 1955

"To enter heaven is to become more human than you ever succeeded in being on earth; to enter hell, is to be banished from humanity. What is cast into hell is not a man: it is 'remains.' To be a complete man means to have the passions obedient to the will and the will offered to God: to have been a man – to be an ex-man or 'damned ghost' – would presumably mean to consist of a will utterly centered in its self and passions utterly uncontrolled. You can have no greater sign of confirmed pride than when you think you are humble enough.

Pain insists upon being attended to.  God whispers to us in our pleasures, speaks in our conscience, but shouts in our pains: it is his megaphone to rouse a deaf world.  No doubt pain as God's megaphone is a terrible instrument; it may lead to final and unrepented rebellion.  But it gives the only opportunity the bad man can have for amendment. it removes the veil; it plants the flag of truth within the fortress of the rebel soul."

C.S. Lewis, The Problem of Pain, 1940

“Man has places in his heart which do not yet exist— and into them enters suffering, so that they may have life.”

Léon Bloy

“Then the rich man said, ‘I beg you, Father Abraham, send Lazarus to my father’s house.  For I have five brothers for him to warn, so that they also will not come to this place of desolation and torment.’  But Abraham said, ‘They have Moses and the Prophets.  Let them listen to them.’ 

But the rich man again said, ‘No, Father Abraham, but if someone from the dead comes back and speaks to them, they will repent.’  And Abraham said, ‘If they do not listen to Moses and the Prophets, neither will they listen if someone warns them who has risen from the dead.’”

Luke 16:27-31
 

The Spirit leads us through the desert of Lent, to the mountain top of the Redemption and the broad vistas of the Resurrection.

Repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. 

Last night about 7 PM, shortly after the futures market opened with stock index futures plunging and gold and silver soaring,  I posted the following on X:

"Bessent and crew are going to put forth a maximum effort to reset the markets, so that their fellow jokers that are trapped can get out and reposition.  Donnie thinks they are supporting him, but they just want to make some serious bucks using Uncle Thug's ESF [Exchange Stabilization Fund]."

And so they did today.

All I am going to say for now is to repeat my thought that this attack by the US-Israel on Iran is a strategic military blunder on par with Germany's Operation Barbarossa.  

To borrow a British saying from WW I, we are lions led by donkeys. 

We know whose purposes it serves, and it is most decidedly not the American public.  It is a creature of the oligarchy.

Gold and silver were slammed in the aftermath of a strong flight to safety.

 Stocks were hammered overnight, but were pumped into the NY open and were lifted aloft into the close.

VIX came in high and was pushed lower.

A couple of week ago I suggested that it was time to fill up on oil and gas for yourself, and round up your supplies of food and other essentials.  It literally would cost you nothing over time.

And so it was. 

This will not end well, for anyone, even for those who think that they are directing this madness..

Have a pleasant evening.