“Some economists, when thinking about long memory, are concerned that it undercuts the Efficient Market Hypothesis that prices fully reflect all relevant information; that the random walk is the best metaphor to describe such markets; and that you cannot beat such an unpredictable market. Well, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is no more than that, a hypothesis. Many a grand theory has died under the onslaught of real data.” Benoît B. Mandelbrot
The Five Year TIP Yields have crossed up and over the conventional Five Year Treasury Yields for the first time in their admittedly short life span.
That would tend to signal inflation dead ahead. And/or a negative real return on Five Year Treasuries.
It will be interesting to see how those move in the future as the currency crisis unfolds in phase two of the Credit Crisis.
TIP to TIP Spreads