In case you missed the hint we posted last Wednesday, the Wall Street wiseguys were painting the tape into the fiscal year end of many of their funds.
Chicago PMI Worst Since 1982
This week is a return to reality as we digest more ugly economic statistics showing without a doubt that the US is heading into a deep recession.
If only predicting the course of the markets was simple, reducible to glib one-liners and simple courses of action and perpetually safe investments.
There is plenty of hot money drifting around, and at some point a terrible inflation is going to appear. But when? We simply cannot know this in advance.
Trading in a monster bear for the short term, with leverage is a fool's game unless one is a seasoned professional. And a fool and his money are soon parted.
If you look at the previous blog entry the best store of value for your wealth is quite obvious, if you have patience and do not succumb to leverage, and keep in mind the principles of diversification and portfolio management. But, even that is no certainty, for there are none in this world except death, change and the unexpected.
For the punters, its most likely we will muck around and set some sort of a bottom, in fear and trembling ahead of the Jobs Report which has expectations set extremely low.
At some point we will get a monster retracement rally, but that will be difficult to predict in advance, and its extent may be dependent on the trigger and how low we go first. Lots of variables. Afraid you'll have to stay tuned for updates.