There is a big "if and but" in this forecast from the China Central Bank.
If the government stimulus regenerates aggregate demand, we will see a rebound in the world economies and prices of industrial commodities, as well as gold which will be a hedge during the subsequent monetary inflation.
But if it does not, we may be turning Japanese, and suffer at least a few lost years.
Reuters
China central bank sees rebound in metals, new gold peak
by Zhou Xin, Langi Chiang and Simon Rabinovitch
Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:19am GMT
BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Copper and aluminium prices could rebound in 2009, while gold might scale a new peak and oil could chalk up big gains in the second half of the year, the People's Bank of China said on Friday.
In its annual international financial markets report, the central bank said it expected global demand to continue to weaken this year but held out the hope that the forceful policy response of governments could lead to a turning point in the world economic crisis.
“Depart from me, you accursed. For I was hungry and you gave me no food, thirsty and you gave me no drink, a stranger and you did not welcome me, naked and you did not clothe me, sick and in prison and you did not comfort me.' They answer, 'Lord, when was it that we saw you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and did not care for you?' He answered, 'Truly I tell you, as you did not do it to one of the least of these, you did not do it for me.’”
Matthew 25:40-46