There is a big "if and but" in this forecast from the China Central Bank.
If the government stimulus regenerates aggregate demand, we will see a rebound in the world economies and prices of industrial commodities, as well as gold which will be a hedge during the subsequent monetary inflation.
But if it does not, we may be turning Japanese, and suffer at least a few lost years.
Reuters
China central bank sees rebound in metals, new gold peak
by Zhou Xin, Langi Chiang and Simon Rabinovitch
Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:19am GMT
BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Copper and aluminium prices could rebound in 2009, while gold might scale a new peak and oil could chalk up big gains in the second half of the year, the People's Bank of China said on Friday.
In its annual international financial markets report, the central bank said it expected global demand to continue to weaken this year but held out the hope that the forceful policy response of governments could lead to a turning point in the world economic crisis.
"Then the kings of the earth, the nobles, and the military commanders, the rich and the powerful, and all the rest who served them hid in caves and sheltered among the rocks of the mountains. And they implored the mountains and the rocks, 'Fall on us and hide us from the face of the one who sits on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb. For the great day of his wrath has come, and who then will be able to stand?”
Revelation 6:15-17