It is important to remember that this is a 'triple witching' week with options expiring on Friday. In markets such as this in particular it is a week of shenanigans as the bigger house players squeeze the option punters who are essentially speculating with too much leverage. March is a big expiration.
We also have the Fed in a two day FOMC meeting with their announcement tomorrow at 2:15 EDT.
The uptrend has held so far. The first chart shows the hourly action up close, and the second chart shows the same scenario but within the context of the bigger picture.
This feels like a technical rally. And surely there is no recovery in the real economy six months out, which is what is required to justify a sustained market uptrend and a new bull market.
Although Ben Bernanke has made noises about a possible recovery at the end of this year, we would file that with his other economic pronouncements about the credit crisis being confined to subprime and so forth. He is constantly talking his book, which demands a rosy recovery. He won't get it.
There will be no recovery in our nation until there is significant reform enacted to bring our economy back into balance. The financial system, gone off the track with gambling, is draining our energy away from real productive efforts, acting as a hidden by substantial tax on the quality of our growth.
A view of the above chart within the greater context of this rally.
Joy is the experience of knowing that you are unconditionally loved, and that nothing—sickness, failure, emotional distress, oppression, war, or death—can take that love away. Joy is not the same as happiness. Joy does not simply happen to us. We have to choose joy and keep choosing it every day. We can be unhappy about many things, but joy can still be there because it comes from the knowledge of God’s love for us. Nothing, not even death, can take God away from us.
Henri J.M. Nouwen