The relationship between CMI's Growth Index as an indicator of US GDP is interesting. If it continues its correlation the US GDP is in for a serious slump, if not a double dip. The Fed is likely to initiate a new round of quantitative easing in response, although they will try to jawbone their way around the monetization issues.
Growth Index Past 4 Years
The Consumer Metrics Institute's 91-day 'Trailing Quarter' Growth Index -vs- U.S. Department of Commerce's Quarterly GDP Growth Rates over past 4 years. The quarterly GDP growth rates are shown as 3-month plateaus in the graph. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is plotted as a monthly average.
Consumer Metrics Institute's Contraction Watch
The comparison of the 91-Day Growth Indexes during the 'quarter' immediately following the commencement of a contraction. The quarterly GDP growth rates are shown as 3-month plateaus in the graph. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is plotted as a monthly average. The contraction events of 2006, 2008 and 2010 are shown against the same scale of annualized contraction.
Charts by the Consumer Metrics Institute
“I know there is a God — I see the storm coming and I see His hand in it — If He has a place for me then I am ready.”
John F. Kennedy, scrawled on a prayer breakfast program, NYT, May 15, 1964