The relationship between CMI's Growth Index as an indicator of US GDP is interesting. If it continues its correlation the US GDP is in for a serious slump, if not a double dip. The Fed is likely to initiate a new round of quantitative easing in response, although they will try to jawbone their way around the monetization issues.
Growth Index Past 4 Years
The Consumer Metrics Institute's 91-day 'Trailing Quarter' Growth Index -vs- U.S. Department of Commerce's Quarterly GDP Growth Rates over past 4 years. The quarterly GDP growth rates are shown as 3-month plateaus in the graph. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is plotted as a monthly average.
Consumer Metrics Institute's Contraction Watch
The comparison of the 91-Day Growth Indexes during the 'quarter' immediately following the commencement of a contraction. The quarterly GDP growth rates are shown as 3-month plateaus in the graph. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is plotted as a monthly average. The contraction events of 2006, 2008 and 2010 are shown against the same scale of annualized contraction.
Charts by the Consumer Metrics Institute
"Senators disturb us by reminding us of the possibility of large numbers swarming from China; but the answer to all this is obvious and very simple. If the Chinese come here, they will come for citizenship or merely for labor. If they come for citizenship, then in this desire do they give a pledge of loyalty to our institutions; and where is the peril in such vows? They are peaceful and industrious; how can their citizenship be the occasion of solicitude?"
Senator Charles Sumner, 1870