Jesse's Café Américain

“Some economists, when thinking about long memory, are concerned that it undercuts the Efficient Market Hypothesis that prices fully reflect all relevant information; that the random walk is the best metaphor to describe such markets; and that you cannot beat such an unpredictable market. Well, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is no more than that, a hypothesis. Many a grand theory has died under the onslaught of real data.” Benoît B. Mandelbrot

Showing posts with label Shadowstats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shadowstats. Show all posts
13 March 2012

John Williams on the Retail Sales Number - A Brief Interlude on Hyperinflation and Deflation

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Although I am still firmly in the stagflation camp, I do allow at least for the possibility of a protracted deflation or a bout of serious...
28 January 2011

Despite the Miss on Expectations Today's US 4Q GDP Number Was Still a Puffball

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I just did not have the time or energy to do the work analyzing today's US GDP estimate for the 4Q10.  The drop in stocks and spike hig...
16 July 2010

ShadowStats: CPI-Alt Running 4.3%, Gold $2,382, Silver $139

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Something Weimar this way comes? There is almost no doubt in my mind that we will see these prices of $2382 for gold and $139 for silver. I ...
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