Redemptions and Losses Expected to Hammer US Hedge Funds

"The chief executive of a leading alternative investment manager said he expected the hedge fund industry to shrink by 50 per cent in coming months – with half the decline coming from withdrawals and half coming from investment losses"

"The industry, which manages close to $2,000 bn, has experienced outflows during only a handful of months previously, including a small outflow in April of this year."

The Financial Times
US hedge fund withdrawals hit $43bn in September
By Deborah Brewster and Henny Sender in New York
October 16 2008 00:16

Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September as market turmoil led to unprecedented withdrawals, an analysis by a leading research house shows.

The data from TrimTabs Investment Research – which was to be sent to clients late on Wednesday – come as hedge funds are working to prevent far bigger redemptions by the end of the year, when many funds give investors a chance to take out money. (Calling all bagholders - Jesse)

Withdrawals can lead to a vicious circle in the markets, as funds sell holdings to return money to clients, depressing prices and prompting further redemptions.

To prevent such an outcome, some hedge funds had offered to suspend fees if investors kept their money in until March, said Marc Freed, of Lyster Watson, which invests in hedge funds on behalf of institutional and private clients. (Oh yeah that sounds great considering they are getting decimated by the worst bear market since the Great Depression - Jesse)

“Every investor fears other investors will pull their money and so they worry they will be at the back of the line if they don’t also pull,” Mr Freed said. (If you are going to panic, be sure to panic first. - Jesse)

“Nobody will invest in anything illiquid because they think they may not survive long enough to see them rise in value.”

A fundraiser for a major hedge fund said the period “between now and December 1 is a sort of death march” for the industry.

The chief executive of a leading alternative investment manager said he expected the hedge fund industry to shrink by 50 per cent in coming months – with half the decline coming from withdrawals and half coming from investment losses.

Conrad Gunn, chief operating officer of TrimTabs, said the $43bn in September withdrawals would mark “the beginning of what we expect to be a series of outflows for the remainder of the year. We expect October outflows to be larger”.

Mr Gunn said the September outflows were based on an analysis of preliminary data and that the final tally would probably be higher because funds with heavy redemptions tended to report data later.

The industry, which manages close to $2,000bn, has experienced outflows during only a handful of months previously, including a small outflow in April of this year.

JPMorgan Chase has estimated that hedge fund outflows could total up to $150bn over the coming year. As investors take their money out of hedge funds, the funds have to sell assets.

But because they use so much borrowed money, the amount of potential asset sales is far larger. For example, JPMorgan expects that an outflow of $150bn will lead to sales of about $400bn.

(The JPM estimates seems a little light. 150 billion in total redemptions based on 43 billion in September alone, with October to be larger, and a 'death march' to year end? They seem to be assuming blue skies by Christmas. Hey, no fees if you hold on until the flesh falls from your bones. - Jesse)

The Worst of the Credit Crisis Is Yet to Come - Ted Forstmann

COMMENTARY: THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW
Theodore J. Forstmann
The Credit Crisis Is Going to Get Worse
By BRIAN M. CARNEY
July 5, 2008
The Wall Street Journal
New York

Twenty years ago, Ted Forstmann contributed a scathing – and prescient – op-ed to this newspaper warning that the junk-bond craze was about to end badly: "Today's financial age has become a period of unbridled excess with accepted risk soaring out of proportion to possible reward," he wrote in October 1988. "Every week, with ever-increasing levels of irresponsibility, many billions of dollars in American assets are being saddled with debt that has virtually no chance of being repaid."

Within a year, the junk-bond market had collapsed, and within 18 months Drexel Burnham Lambert, the leading firm of the junk-bond world, was bankrupt. Mr. Forstmann sees even worse trouble coming today.

For a curmudgeon, he is a cheerful man. When we met for lunch recently in a tony midtown restaurant, he was wearing a well-tailored suit, a blue shirt and a yellow tie. He spoke with the calm self-assurance of someone who has something to say but nothing left to prove.

"We are in a credit crisis the likes of which I've never seen in my lifetime," Mr. Forstmann warns. He adds: "The credit problems in this country are considerably worse than people have said or know. I didn't even know subprime mortgages existed and I was worried about the credit crisis."

Mr. Forstmann denies being an expert in the capital markets. But he does have some experience with them. He was present at the creation of the private-equity business. The firm he co-founded, Forstmann Little, rode the original private-equity boom in the 1980s while skirting the excesses of the junk-bond craze in the later years. It was for a time the most successful private-equity firm in the world, renowned for both its outsize returns and its caution. For two years after Mr. Forstmann wrote his 1988 op-ed, Forstmann Little sat on $2 billion in uninvested funds, waiting for the right opportunities. Savvy investments in Dr. Pepper and Gulfstream, among others over the years, helped make Mr. Forstmann a billionaire.

These days, he devotes most of his professional attention to IMG, the sports and entertainment agency. But the economy has him worried.

Mr. Forstmann's argument about the present crisis starts with the money supply. After Sept. 11, 2001, the Federal Reserve pumped so much money into the financial system that it distorted the incentives and the decision making of everyone in finance. (That distortion of risk, the extreme lowering of the bar in assessing the viability of projects and investments, is known as "moral hazard." Some economic commentators attack the notion as 'old-fashioned moralism' as a rhetorical device. It is nothing of the sort. It is a defense of private finance. - Jesse)

He illustrates this with what he calls his "little children's story": Once upon a time, when credit conditions and the costs of borrowing money were normal, the bank opened at 9:00 a.m. and closed at 5:00 p.m. For eight hours a day, bankers made loans and took deposits, and then they went home.

But after 9/11, the Fed opened the spigot. Short-term interest rates went to zero in real terms and then into negative territory. When real interest rates are negative, borrowing money is effectively free – the debt loses value faster than the interest adds up. This led to a series of distortions in the financial sector that are only now coming to light. The children's story continues: "Now they [the banks] have all this excess money. And they open at nine, and from nine to noon or so, they're doing all the same kind of basically legitimate things with it that they did before."

So far, so good. "But at noon, they have tons of money left. They have all this supply, and the, what I would call 'legitimate' demand – it's probably not a good word – but where risk and reward are still in balance, has been satisfied. But they're still open until five. And around 3:30 in the afternoon they get to such things as subprime mortgages, OK? And what you guys haven't seen yet is what happened between noon and 3:30."

Straightforward economics tells us that when you print too much money, it loses value and prices go up. That's been happening too. But Mr. Forstmann is most concerned with a different, more subtle effect of the oversupply of money. When it becomes too plentiful, bankers and other financial intermediaries end up taking on more and more risk for less return. (Among others we were pointing this out as early as 1998 as it was apparent in the tech bubble of which we were participating. When the Fed started the cycle again in 2003 we were astounded, incredulous. It did cost us some money, because we could not believe the Fed could be that wantonly reckless. - Jesse)

The incentive to be conservative under normal credit conditions is driven in part by what economists call opportunity cost – if you put money to use in one place, it leaves you with less money to invest or lend in another place. So you pick your spots carefully. But if you've got too much money, and that money is declining in value faster than you can earn interest on it, your incentives change. "Something that's free isn't worth much," as Mr. Forstmann puts it. So the normal rules of caution get attenuated. (Anyone who has functioned in a corporate finance position or owned and managed a significant business understands this notion intimately, almost second nature. - Jesse)

"They could not find enough appropriate uses for the money," Mr. Forstmann says. "That's why my little bank story for the kids is a fun way to put it. The money just kept coming and coming and coming and coming. What are you going to do with it? IBM only needs so much. The guy who can really pay his mortgage only needs so much." So you start thinking about new ways to lend the money, which inevitably means riskier ways.

"I don't know when money was ever this inexpensive in the history of this country. But not in modern times, that's for sure."

Combine this with loan syndication and securitization, and the result is a nasty brew. Securitization and syndication allow the banks to take the loans off their books and replenish their capital. They then use this capital to make new loans, which they securitize or syndicate and sell to the hedge funds, which buy them with the money they borrowed from the banks. For a time, everyone makes money.

In fact, for six years, a lot of people made a lot of money in this environment. (At the time we preferred to call it the looting of America's future - Jesse) So much money that, as Mr. Forstmann notes, the price of admission to the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans has gone from $500 million 10 years ago to over $1 billion today. (Mr. Forstmann was bumped from the list two years ago, his reported 10-figure net worth no longer enough to keep pace.)

At the same time, both the size and the number of hedge funds and private-equity funds have ballooned. "I used to have one of the biggest private-equity funds in the world," he says matter-of-factly. "It was, I don't know, $500 million or a billion dollars. If you don't have a $20 billion fund now, you're kind of a [nobody]," Mr. Forstmann says. (The term he used to describe those of us without $20 billion PE funds was both more colorful and less printable than "nobody.") "And so what does that tell you?"

Mr. Forstmann hasn't raised a new fund in four years. But he doesn't blame the hedge funds or the private-equity funds – they are not the villains in his story. "Fundamentally, I don't see them as a cause," he says. "Obviously the proliferation of hedge funds and private-equity funds has created its own dynamic. But this proliferation is simply a result of the vast increase in the money supply."

Mr. Forstmann has been around a long time, so he's seen a lot. But is it possible that he's simply fallen behind the times? By his own description, he's a bit of a figure from another age – "a bit like Wyatt Earp in 1910."

But it would be a mistake to dismiss Mr. Forstmann's pessimism too quickly. After all, he knows something about both credit and crises.

"You've got [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson saying 'Oh, you see the good news is it's over.'" The problem, according to Mr. Forstmann, is that it's far from over. "I think we're in about the second inning of this." And of course, the credit crisis wasn't even supposed to last this long. "This all started in August [of 2007], and it was going to get cleared up by October. It hasn't gotten cleared up at all."

One reason is that the proliferation of new financial instruments has left the system more closely intertwined than ever, making a workout, or even a shakeout, much more difficult. Take what happened to Bear Stearns. "What should the health of one brokerage firm in America mean to the entire global financial system? To an ordinary person, probably not much. But in today's world, with all the interdependence, a great deal."

This circular creation of new credit, used to buy more newly created debt, all financed by ultracheap money and all betting with each other, has left the major firms hopelessly intertwined. "It's very interrelated," he says, locking his fingers together. "There's trillions and trillions of dollars that slosh around between all these places and if one fails . . ." He doesn't finish the thought. (On a scale from 1 to 10, we're fucked - Jesse)

Early in our conversation, Mr. Forstmann describes his conversational style as "Faulknerian." The word fits. He jumps between thoughts, examples and anecdotes in a pure stream of consciousness. One such aside is about Warren Buffett and the rule of the three "I"s.

"Buffett once told me there are three 'I's in every cycle. The 'innovator,' that's the first 'I.' After the innovator comes the 'imitator.' And after the imitator in the cycle comes the idiot. Which makes way for an innovator again." So when Mr. Forstmann says we're at the end of an era, it's another way of saying that he's afraid that the idiots have made their entrance.

"We're in the third 'I' for sure," he interjects an hour after first introducing the "rule." "And that always leads to something. Innovators don't just show up. Some disaster takes place because of the idiots, and then an innovator says, oh, look at this, I can do this, that or the other thing." That disaster is now.

In other words, "In order to fix what's going on in the United States there's going to have to be a certain amount of pain. The market's going to have to clear somehow. . . and it's hard for me to believe that it gets fixed without" upheaval in the financial system, the economy and the country as a whole. "Things are going to fail. Enterprises are going to fail. The economy is going to slow," he warns.

To be clear, although Mr. Forstmann talks about "fear and greed" getting out of whack, his is not a condemnation of "greedy speculators" or a "culture of greed" or any of the lamentations so popular among the populists in Washington. It is a diagnosis of the ways in which the financial sector responded to a government policy of printing money that was free, or nearly so. "The creation of much too much money caused all of this excess," he says. In other words, his is not an argument for draconian regulation, but for sound money. (If he really believes that the monied powers were not major precipitants behind this, were not actively lobbying the Congress for the relaxation of long standing reforms, were not packing government positions with their alumni, and were not in part behind the election of a willing tool, the prince of Idiots, then we lose all respect for him - Jesse)

Nor does he blame Alan Greenspan, even though he argues that this all started with the dot-com bubble and 9/11. "Greenspan," he allows, "had really tough decisions to make, so I don't think it's a black-and-white kind of thing at all." It was, and is, rather, "a case of first impression." Mr. Greenspan, he says, admits that he was "totally sure" that what he was doing was right. But he had "no idea what the consequences [were] going to be." (ROFLMAO. So who would be to blame, the dog? The dog ate our economy? No one wants to name names, because they know before its over that there will be blood. - Jesse)

According to Mr. Forstmann, we are now living with those consequences. And the correction has only begun.

Mr. Carney is a member of the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal.

Why Gold? 85% of Pension Funds Will Go Bust in 30 Years

I have not seen the scenarios run by Bridgewater Associates, but I do have respect for their name and their work.  I would like to know their assumptions.

In an inflation, stocks may do quite well, as their inflated valuations keep pace with inflation. Bonds are likely to get obliterated. In a stagflation not so much.  The Fed and the Treasury would like a modest inflation to provide a controllable dilution of debts without opening the door to a debt jubilee for the hoi polloi.  The Fed serves the Banks, and therefore the creditor class.  But a parasite must also preserve the relationship with their hosts.

The system is broken and the oligarchs do not wish to fix it, because they like things just the way that they are.    They have bought the politicians and are running the regulators.  What could go wrong?

It is hard to credit the Fed with a policy error when their actions seem to be so conscious and wanton.  But I am sure when the time comes they will claim ignorance as usual.

In line with a time of general frauds, Grant Williams has a particularly good essay this week, and you may wish to read it.  I admire his writing and insight as always.  The only slight quibble I might have is that a 'rigging' that is out in the open is hardly as foul and as fraudulent as one that is conducted under cover of denials and opaqueness.

So for example, I would not equate the Fed's 'rigging' interest rates through their well publicized open market operations with the same critical eye as I might consider the manipulating of certain commodity prices and inflation measures to hide its effects.  There is war and there is war profiteering, and there is war crime, as there is a difference between conducting a financial war, and machine-gunning the life boats full of innocent refugees in order to hide the effects of your misguided policies.

The point of a control fraud is deception and secrecy.  And I think the amount of it in our markets is unsustainable, and the moral hazard that nourishes this has its roots in the monied interests and their corrupted leadership.

"The 'pensions timebomb' keeps on ticking and as societies we become less prepared by the day.

Yet another report shows that the U.S. public pension system is in dire straits. This one comes from renowned hedge fund manager Bridgewater Associates.

The study estimates that public pension funds will earn an annual return of 4% or less in coming years due to near zero percent interest rates and financial repression. That, in turn, would cause bankruptcy for 85% of the pension funds within 30 years, the study warns.

Public pension plans now have only $3 trillion in assets to invest so that they can pay out $10 trillion of retirement benefits in coming decades, according to Bridgewater. The funds would need an annual investment return of about 9% to meet those obligations, the report says.

It is likely that many pension funds will go bust in the medium term and this may be a crisis that looms large sooner than the Bridgewater research suggests...

Pension funds traditional mix of equities and bonds may underperform in the coming years as many stock markets appear overvalued after liquidity-driven surges in recent years and bonds offer all time record low yields and are at all time record highs in price and can only fall in value in the coming years.

Pensions allocations to gold are exceptionally low internationally and yet gold has an important role to play in preserving and growing pension wealth over the long term.

Pension funds’ overexposure solely to paper assets and lack of diversification has cost pension holders dearly in recent years. This will almost certainly continue in the coming years."

Mark O'Byrne, Futures Mag

Read the entire article here.

Scholes Sees Stagflation Coming, Suggests Safety To Be Found In Assets Like Gold and Silver

"But never a truth has been destroyed;
They may curse it, and call it crime;
Pervert and betray, or slander and slay
Its teachers for a time.
But the sunshine aye shall light the sky,
As round and round we run;
And the truth shall ever come uppermost,
And justice shall be done."

Charles Mackay

A banquet of consequence is coming, but I am afraid that justice is taking a more circuitous route, thanks in large part to the credibility trap. And the masters of the feast never seem to be around to pick up the check for their revels.

Myron Scholes, of the Black-Scholes Risk Pricing Model, said in an interview from the Milken Conference this morning that stagflation is the most likely outcome for the economy.

Stagflation! And what did Myron suggest that people invest in to protect themselves? Gold and silver, among other hard assets.  He thinks that stocks are due for a decline.

Stagflation is coming, so buy gold and silver to protect at least some of your wealth. Where have we heard that forecast before?

I think a forward thinking person, looking at the nature of the Fed's serial policy errors and the economic abuses that the monied interests have been inflicting on the real economy for quite some time, could have seen this outcome coming some years ago.

And some did.   But it is nice to see the models catching up.  The only surprise is that it has gone on as long as it has.  Never underestimate the venality of unscrupulous greed, and the power of thinking in herds.

And this comes a day after Ken Rogoff has suggested that the emerging markets invest their surpluses in the safety of gold! Which of course any but the most casual observer knows very well that they have been doing, and in size, for some time.

So there we have two major economic thinkers coming out for gold and silver as safe havens this week. One might be excused if they wonder if these are not statements being made ahead of some event to protect a sage's derrière.

There is one major hurdle, however, to executing that strategy to protect yourself by buying precious metals, as depicted in a single chart of a key market factor below.

Meredith Whitney on the Banks

11-5-08 Meredith Whitney Interview on CNBC with Maria Bartiromo (video)
(Thanks to Mr. Mortgage for the transcript below)

Maria: What changes with an Obama Presidency for the banks?

Whitney: Financials and the economy are so far off the tracks its hard to see anything helping right now. One thing they talked about was mortgage modifications - trying to get money to consumer.

None of this makes banks have a higher appetite for risk so you don’t see a lot of money coming into system aside from govt subsidies. So the banks will make less if they modify your loan. They will be siting on sludgier assets. That doesn’t create new capital to get back into the system.

Higher taxes are assoc with Dem’s but there it less to tax…one good thing about all of this.

Maria: You were the first to point out the upset in financial industry - please tell us where we are in cycle?

Whitney: We are in a new part of cycle. We have digested the fact that the securitization is not coming back. Securitization made up 85% of mortgages and 50% of credit cards. Market is not coming back. Contraction of capital is one thing. But what happens going forward is contraction of the overall mortgage market - this has never happened before.

Banks are not lending. Originations are down big in Q3. Loan balances getting smaller. Credit cards make up over $2 trillion in available credit lines being pulled out of system. Credit is being taken away form those that got credit in the past 15 years. Never in America had we seen this before. This is a more destructive market for consumer. This is not factored into market.

An economy that has already been impacted by market and unemployment going to double digit levels is another wild card for banks.

Banks just will not make a lot of money and the street is still expecting them to make a lot more money. My estimates are 30-70% below the street and i think I am too high.

Maria: 70% below the street - oh my. Its going to be tough to make those up - the street still expects them to make lot?

Whitney: Banks asset base gets smaller so revenue gets smaller. They can’t cut costs fast enough to keep up with declining revenue. Credit costs increase and you are running faster to collect on loans. So you just have a protracted period of negative operating leverage.

Many of the banks, especially the two brokers, expense structure grew so fast over the past several years that their expense structure is built for a 06-07 revenue environment and their revenue will be like 01-02 revenue environment.

Maria: How much of this is priced in how much will this be a surprise? stocks are down so significantly.

Whitney: Citi, UBS, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and BofA at all these levels est are coming down dramatically. Nobody is immune. Believe it or not, analysts think losses will be more milder than they really will be.

One difference between my estimates and the rest of the street has been a higher loss curve estimates for losses than others. But my loss estimates are actually lower than the reported numbers. I think we are in for a rude awakening. That may result in a slow grind down in these stocks.(When the financials bottom, the stock markets will be at a bottom and not before. We have much further to go. This is going to look like the post 1930 grind down to a bottom, at about 70-80% of the peak in real terms. Expect 10 to 20% kickback rallies every few months. The wild card is how successfully the Fed and Treasury can create inflation to mask it. - Jesse)

I don’t think you will see massive capital destruction like we saw with huge write downs but I will bet a lot of money banks will come back for a lot more money on the next 9-months again so you will be diluted further. Now, from Obama you will see more regulation. They are a highly regulated utility with less dividend. You should expect Citi and others to cut dividend.

Citi already cut but nobody is allowed to raise under TARP. But earns will be so much lower alot of companies will not be able to support dividends so yes they will cut again.

Maria: How significant of a fall will be see in these stocks?

Whitney: I think Citi goes to the single digits. (Good bellwether - Jesse)

Maria: Who is best position and will go higher?

Whitney: There are many I like and I hope they can hold onto being independent, but stock prices are far too high.

I think you know JPM and BAC survives. There are alot of attractive companies.

Wells Fargo at $20 is attractive. They have a $20 billion offering in the works and that stock is still hovering near $30! That stock still has a ways down to go. (We were thinking more like 10 - Jesse)

Wells Fargo is gonna be a great company and will be a survivor but consensus estimates are on Pluto. They will have a (equity) supply jam in terms of extra capital into the market and you will see a great chance to buy a great stock you want and at much lower prices. (If we hit a bottom we would rather have commodity companies like oil and mining with good cash flows to support high yields - Jesse)

Advent 2021

 

"There were shepherds in that region living in the fields and keeping the night watch over their flock.   The angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were struck with great fear. 

The angel said to them, “Do not be afraid; for behold, I bring you good news of great joy for all people.  Today in the city of David a savior has been born for you, who is Messiah and Lord.  And this will be a sign for you: you will find an infant wrapped in swaddling clothes and lying in a manger.

And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace toward men of good will." 

Luke 2:8-14

 

“Only the humble believe him and rejoice that God is so free and so marvelous that he does wonders where people despair, that he takes what is little and lowly and makes it marvelous.  And that is the wonder of all wonders, that God loves the lowly. 

God is not ashamed of the lowliness of human beings. God marches right in.  He chooses people as his instruments and performs his wonders where one would least expect them.   God is near to lowliness; he loves the lost, the neglected, the unseemly, the excluded, the weak and broken.

The celebration of Advent is possible only to those who are troubled in soul, who know themselves to be poor and imperfect, and who look forward to something greater to come."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Reflections on Advent

 

“May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in your faith, so that in the power of the Holy Spirit you may be rich in hope.” 

Romans 15:13 

“At this Christmas when Christ comes, will He find a warm heart?   Mark the season of Advent by loving and serving the others with God’s own love and concern.  It is Christmas every time you let God love others through you.” 

Teresa of Calcutta

"For outlandish creatures like us, on our way to a heart, a brain, and courage, Bethlehem is not the end of our journey but only the beginning – not home but the place through which we must pass if ever we are to reach home at last. 

Frederick Buechner

 

“Exiled from the earth, our Lord is born under the earth, for the stable was in a cave, and there he shook the earth to its very foundations.  Because he’s born in a cave, all who wish to see him must be bend, must stoop, the stoop is the mark of humility. 

The proud refuse to stoop. Therefore they miss divinity.  Those, however, who are willing to risk bending their egos to go into that cave, find that they are not in a cave at all; but they are in a universe where sits a babe on his mother’s lap, the babe who made the world.” 

Fulton Sheen

 

“Master of both the light and the darkness, send your Holy Spirit upon our preparations for Christmas.  We who have so much to do and seek quiet spaces to hear your voice each day.  We who are anxious over many things look forward to your coming among us.  We who are blessed in so many ways long for the complete joy of your kingdom.  We whose hearts are heavy seek the joy of your presence.  We are your people, walking in darkness, yet seeking the light.

To you we say, 'Come Lord Jesus!'  The Lord is coming, always coming.  When you have ears to hear and eyes to see, you will recognize him at any moment of your life.  Life is Advent; life is recognizing the coming of the Lord.” 

Henri Nouwen

 

"He became what we are that he might make us what he is."

Athanasius of Alexandria

 

"Give us grace to cast away the works of darkness and put on the armor of light, now in the time of this life, in which your Son Jesus Christ came to visit us in great humility;  So that, at the last day, when he shall come again in his glorious majesty to judge the living and the dead, we may rise to the life immortal."

Book of Common Prayer

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Privileged Few: Their Myths and Illusions

 

"'Gnosis’ was an enormous temptation in the early Christian Church. What made it so insidious was the fact that the Gnostics very often did not want to leave the Church. Instead, they claimed to be offering a superior and more authentic exposition of Holy Scripture, though, of course, this was only for the ‘superior souls’.  It inevitably encouraged not only an excited craving for higher initiation, but also an almost unbounded arrogance in those who had moved from mere ‘faith’ to real, enlightened ‘knowledge’.

Myth seeks the ascent of man to spirit; the Word of God seeks descent into flesh and blood. Myth wants power; revelation reveals the true power of God in the most extreme powerlessness. Myth wants knowledge; the Word of God asks for constant faith and, only within that faith, a growing, reverent understanding. The revelation of God’s Word is gentle patience amidst the intractable tensions of life. Error never shows itself in its naked reality, in order not to be discovered. On the contrary, it dresses elegantly, so that the unwary may be led to believe that it is more truthful than truth itself.”

Irenaeus of Lyons, The Scandal of The Incarnation, 180 AD

"The humility of the righteous will guide them, but the deceitfulness of the proud will destroy them."

Proverbs 11:2-3

“We who have so much to do seek quiet spaces to hear your voice each day. We who are anxious over many things look forward to your coming among us. We who are blessed in so many ways long for the complete joy of your kingdom. We whose hearts are heavy seek the joy of your presence. We are your people, walking in darkness, yet seeking the light.”

Henri Nouwen, Advent Prayer

“The opposite of love is not hate, he said. It’s power. Relationships fueled by a drive for power, where one person seeks dominance over the other, are incapable of producing love.”

David Talbot, The Devil's Chessboard

"Surely, there is at this day a confederacy of evil, marshaling its hosts from all parts of the world, organizing itself, taking its measures, enclosing the Church of Christ as in a net, and preparing the way for a general Apostasy from it. This Apostasy, and all its tokens and instruments, are of the Evil One, and savour of death.

John Henry Newman, 1890

"Some crazy numbers in here.  Big US Universities are really hedge funds with a side hustle in education. The gulf in pay between the fund managers and the Provost tells you everything you need to know."

Dr. James O'Leary, University College London, 2024


I never really understood until now why the President of Columbia just closed the university to all of their students and faculty. 

They are getting in the way of the university's real business— the serving of money and power. 

Stocks were off to the races today, squeezing the shorts and piling up those gains, going out near the highs.

The Dollar chopped sideways.

VIX fell, as is suitable for a 'risk on' day.

Gold and silver were in rally mode, after the recent sell off into Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls support.

Wow, what a coincidence.

No real data coming out until Wednesday, although earnings reports are still coming in.

The 'very serious people' of the financial and political sectors were gathering for the Michael Milken Global Institute meeting in Beverly Hills.

The mask is really coming off these days, isn't it.  

You may have the privilege of seeing history in the making, as we have not seen for many, many years.

"The humility of the righteous will guide them, but the deceitfulness of the proud will destroy them."   Proverbs 11:2-3

You can forecast things, and fairly well, but when they come true, you still can't quite believe it.

It is hard to overestimate the hypocrisy and lack of decency of the privileged few.

This reminds me a lot of the 1960's.  But I think the music then was better.

And the times, they are a-changin'.  Again.

Have a pleasant evening.

The Financial Crisis Is Everywhere a Fraud, and Official Complacency Inevitably Leads to a Crisis

"A revolution is coming — a revolution which will be peaceful if we are wise enough; compassionate if we care enough; successful if we are fortunate enough — But a revolution which is coming whether we will it or not. We can affect its character; we cannot alter its inevitability." Robert F. Kennedy, 9 May 1966

The Fed is now engaged in a control fraud, and what appears to be racketeering in conjunction with a few big investment banks. They may have entered into it with good intentions, but they seem to have been turned towards deceit and corruption.

This is not an historical event, but an ongoing theft in conjunction with a number of Wall Street banks, and politicians whom they have paid off through a corrupt system of campaign financing and influence peddling.

This is nothing new in history if one reads the unsanitized version. But people never think it can happen today, that somehow yesterday things were different, as if one is looking at some distant, foreign land. This is a facet of the illusion of general progress.

Audit the Fed. Vote out incumbents until they give you what you demand. Take back the billions stolen through millionaire's taxes similar to those in place before the 'Reagan Revolution.' If there is no profit in theft, it will not happen. EU Puts Tough Restrictions on Banker's Bonuses.

The individuals in government are not a ruling class, and were never intended to be, although after a second term they start to feel themselves to be privileged, with better pensions and benefits and pay raises than the people whom they serve. These are your chosen representatives, sworn to uphold the law and governing with your consent. The United States is not the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Executive in Washington, it is the people joined freely by their mutual consent under the Constitution. It is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

Goldman Sachs, AIG, and the NY Fed are at the heart of it. Everyone in the government, the media, and on the Street knows this. We are now in the coverup stage of a scandal, similar to Watergate when the White House was stone-walling. The difference is that the corruption and capture of the government is much more pervasive now, and includes a significant portion of the mainstream media, so meaningful reform is difficult. Most of what has transpired so far has been designed to distract and placate the people in their righteous anger.

Here is a commentary from one of my favorite analysts, Howard Davidowitz, and then the story from Bloomberg on how the Fed deceives the Congress and the public, turns a blind eye to glaring conflicts of interest, and is essentially debasing the currency while transferring the wealth of the nation to their cronies. Janet Tavakoli has been articulate and outspoken on recent financial developments, identifying the fraud and its specifics while taking on the apologists in open forums, for quite some time. And still the regulators do not enforce the laws they have, and Washington drags its feet while accepting buckets of cash from the perpetrators.

The longer reform is delayed and the peaceful protestations of the public are ignored, the worse it will be if the people actually rise and put a stop to this. The Fed could conceivably become a latter day Bastille, one would advise and hope, in a figurative manner.

One of the things I like about the English form of government is that if they behave badly enough, a prime minister can face a vote of no confidence and trigger an election. In the US, it appears that politicians scramble to be elected, and then stay safely in office barring the high hurdle of impeachment, and do what they will, breaking promises and behaving badly, with significant short term impunity. And when the next election comes over the horizon, they start behaving again, and playing the short term memory game. If the US had the British system, there is little doubt that the current Administration would be facing a general election now.

But have no doubt, change is coming, and it is still an open question if hell is also coming with it.

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators on April 3, 2008, that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.” They didn’t share everything the Fed knew about the money.

The so-called assets included collateralized debt obligations and mortgage-backed bonds with names like HG-Coll Ltd. 2007-1A that were so distressed, more than $40 million already had been reduced to less than investment-grade by the time the central bankers testified. The government also became the owner of $16 billion of credit-default swaps, and taxpayers wound up guaranteeing high-yield, high-risk junk bonds.

By using its balance sheet to protect an investment bank against failure, the Fed took on the most credit risk in its 96- year history and increased the chance that Americans would be on the hook for billions of dollars as the central bank began insuring Wall Street firms against collapse. The Fed’s secrecy spurred legislation that will require government audits of the Fed bailouts and force the central bank to reveal recipients of emergency credit.

“Either the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks and is only now discovering their true value, or it understood that it was buying weak assets and attempted to obscure that fact,” Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in an e-mail when informed about the credit quality of holdings in the Maiden Lane LLC portfolio. The committee held the April 3 hearing."

Fed Made Taxpayers Unwitting Junk Bond Buyers - Bloomberg

Christmas Day - the Implications of the Incarnation

 

"There were shepherds in that region living in the fields and keeping the night watch over their flock.   The angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were struck with great fear. 

The angel said to them, “Do not be afraid; for behold, I bring you good news of great joy for all people.  Today in the city of David a savior has been born for you, who is Messiah and Lord.  And this will be a sign for you: you will find an infant wrapped in swaddling clothes and lying in a manger.

And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace toward men of good will." 

Luke 2:8-14

“Only the humble believe him and rejoice that God is so free and so marvelous that he does wonders where people despair, that he takes what is little and lowly and makes it marvelous.  And that is the wonder of all wonders, that God loves the lowly. 

God is not ashamed of the lowliness of human beings. God marches right in.  He chooses people as his instruments and performs his wonders where one would least expect them.   God is near to lowliness; he loves the lost, the neglected, the unseemly, the excluded, the weak and broken.

In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God. Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. 

Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

“Exiled from the earth, our Lord is born under the earth, for the stable was in a cave, and there he shook the earth to its very foundations.  Because he’s born in a cave, all who wish to see him must be bend, must stoop, the stoop is the mark of humility. 

The proud refuse to stoop. Therefore they miss divinity.  Those, however, who are willing to risk bending their egos to go into that cave, find that they are not in a cave at all; but they are in a universe where sits a babe on his mother’s lap, the babe who made the world.” 

Fulton Sheen

 

“We who have so much to do seek quiet spaces to hear your voice each day.  We who are anxious over many things look forward to your coming among us.  We who are blessed in so many ways long for the complete joy of your kingdom.  We whose hearts are heavy seek the joy of your presence.  We are your people, walking in darkness, yet seeking the light.

To you we say, 'Come Lord Jesus!'  The Lord is coming, always coming.  When you have ears to hear and eyes to see, you will recognize him at any moment of your life.  Life is Advent; life is recognizing the coming of the Lord.” 

Henri Nouwen

 

"He became what we are, that he might make us what he is."

Athanasius of Alexandria

 "Give us grace to cast away the works of darkness and put on the armor of light, now in the time of this life, in which your Son Jesus Christ came to visit us in great humility;  So that, at the last day, when he shall come again in his glorious majesty to judge the living and the dead, we may rise to the life immortal."

Book of Common Prayer

 

From all of us here, the young man, Daisy, and le vieux propriétaire, may the blessings of almighty God, descend upon you, and remain with you forever.

Joyeux noël, mes amis.

 

Guest Post: Peak Oil - There Is No 'Plan B' By Chris Martenson

ChrisMartenson.com
Future Chaos: There Is No "Plan B"
By Chris Martenson
October 13, 2010

Note: This article builds on my recent report, Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think. It explores the coming energy crunch in more detail by looking at existing government planning and awareness, and the implications of what international recognition of Peak Oil as early as 2012 might mean.

The hard news is that there is no "Plan B." The future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think. This was the primary conclusion that I came to after attending the most recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) in Washington, DC in October, 2010.

The impact of Peak Oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention - but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all.

ASPO conferences tend to start early, end late, and be packed with more data and information than should be consumed in one sitting. Despite all this, I was riveted to my seat. This year's usual constellation of excellent region-by-region analyses confirmed what past participants already knew: Peak Conventional Oil arrived a few years ago, and new fields, enhanced recovery techniques, and unconventional oil plays are barely going to keep up with demand over the next few years.

But there were two reports that really stood out for me. The first was given by Rear Admiral Lawrence Rice, who presented the findings of the 2010 Joint Operating Environment (a forward-looking document examining the trends, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders in the US military), which spends 76 pages summarizing the key trends and threats of the world. "Energy" occupies six of those pages, and Peak Oil dominates the discussion. Among the conclusions (on page 29), we find this hidden gem, which uses numbers and timing that are eerily similar to those that I put forth in my April 2009 report, Oil - The Coming Supply Crunch:

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.

(Source)

While there are two "coulds" in that statement, the mere possibility that such an imminent arrival and massive shortfall could be true should give every prudent adult a few second thoughts about what the future may hold. If surplus production capacity disappears in just a couple of years, there is an entire world of planning that should take place beforehand at the international, national, community, and personal levels.

More on the JOE report in a minute. Next I want to turn to a presentation given by Rick Munroe, who did his best to discover where within the civilian governmental departments lie the plans for what to do in a liquid-fuel-starved future.

To cut to the chase, it turns out that virtually every department that he contacted in both the US and Canada denied having any such reports. In one humorous exchange by email, Natural Resources Canada stated two things in the same email:

• “At this time the Department has no views on [Peak Oil].
• "There is no imminent Peak Oil challenge…."

It will be interesting to see how NRCan words their emails once they do develop a point of view.

The main conclusion from Rick's presentation was that Peak Oil is being examined closely and taken seriously by military analysts, but not civilian authorities. The few plans that do exist on the civilian side are decades old.

The implications of this are that North America "remains highly vulnerable to a liquid fuel emergency disruption" and, since because there are only a few dusty plans lying around, there will be greater chaos than necessary.

Now back to the JOE report.

OPEC: To meet climbing global requirements, OPEC will have to increase its output from 30 MBD to at least 50 MBD. Significantly, no OPEC nation, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, is investing sufficient sums in new technologies and recovery methods to achieve such growth. Some, like Venezuela and Russia, are actually exhausting their fields to cash in on the bonanza created by rapidly rising oil prices. (p. 26)

A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. (p. 28)

Well, the amounts needed from OPEC are quite, shall we say, 'ambitious,' as they amount to an additional two Saudia Arabias coming on line in order to make up the shortfall. A massive crunch is not otherwise avoidable. Let's be honest; there are no more Saudia Arabias to be found. Perhaps we could cobble one together out of thousands of smaller, less productive fields, but the likelihood of a few massive fields waiting to be found 1,100 feet underground is extremely remote. People in the business of actually producing oil know that producing from smaller wells takes more time, equipment, and manpower.

Meanwhile, I also happen to agree with their assessment that the details of the effects are difficult to predict but that the general theme will be one of reduced growth, and that's under the best of circumstances. More likely we'll have to figure out how to operate on zero or even negative growth.

So I came away from the ASPO conference pondering two completely polar trends that combine to create lasting discomfort. On the one hand, we have more and more private and military organizations coming to the conclusion that Peak Oil is imminent and will change everything, possibly disruptively. On the other hand, there appear to be no plans within the civilian government to deal with a liquid fuels emergency.

While we can expect that such plans will be tossed together when necessary, I would hope that Katrina taught us a few lessons about developing plans on the fly after the disaster has already arrived. Sure, things got done, but they were certainly suboptimal and led to more confusion and more chaos than if they had been carefully developed, practiced, and debugged.

The way that I understand the lack of planning on the part of the civilian side is that Peak Oil does not present any easy political wins, if any at all. Given the two-year planning cycle in DC, it's never a good time to bring up such an unpleasant subject. Politics trump necessity.

What can be rather easily predicted here is that when the next fuel crisis arrives, there will be more chaos than necessary. Some areas will get completely stiffed on their fuel allotments, while other areas will be reasonably well supplied. The reason that this can be easily predicted is because it more or less already happened in Europe during a protest by French fishermen inspired by high fuel prices. They blockaded ports in late May of 2008, and by early June, the action had spread across Europe. Shelves were quickly stripped bare of essential goods, tensions mounted, and petrol stations ran dry in a hurry.

And these were just the effects of a port blockade and tanker truck strike. What would happen with a real and persistent shortage of fuel? Well, if it were perceived to be due to a structural and permanent inability of the global oil market to meet demand, prices would rise stratospherically until demand was cut off. The only problem is, letting prices determine which industries idle back may not be the best plan.

Consider the case of agriculture. If full 'pass-through pricing' is the mechanism of rationing, which it currently is, then less food will be grown. With world grain stocks at historic lows, this is one area where we might not want to let Mr. Market dictate the activities of farmers based on fuel price. To do otherwise would require a plan of some sort, and none appear to be in effect.

That's the source of my discomfort. It's not necessarily that large organizations are beginning to share my sense of timing and impact of Peak Oil, although that will hasten the tipping point of awareness. It's that somehow I always thought that because Admiral Hyman Rickover knew well that this day would come (in the 1950's!), 60 years would have been sufficient lead time to assemble some credible plans.

No plans = unnecessary chaos.

The lack of planning also betrays a very common attitude, which might be summarized as, “We’ll deal with that when we get there.” I detect this attitude in a wide range of individuals and market participants, so it’s not at all uncommon. However, I think it's a mistake to hold this view. When (not if, but when) full awareness of Peak Oil arrives on the international stock, bond, and commodity markets we will discover just how narrow the doorways really are. Only a few will manage to preserve their wealth by squeezing through the doorway early; most will not make it through. As mentioned frequently on this site, our What Should I Do? guide for developing personal resiliency against a Post-Peak future offers a valuable resource for those just getting started in their preparations.

This thinking is explored in greater depth in Part 2 of this report (enrollment required), in which I discuss strategies to fill the official vacuum by developing our own plans for what we should do in response.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Vain and the Inglorious

“Two men went to the Temple to pray. One was a Pharisee, and the other was a despised tax collector. The Pharisee stood by himself and prayed: ‘I thank you, God, that I am not a sinner like everyone else. For I don’t cheat, I don’t sin, and I don’t commit adultery. I’m certainly not like that tax collector! I fast twice a week, and I give you a tenth of my income.’

But the tax collector stood at a distance and dared not even lift his eyes to heaven as he prayed. Instead, he beat his chest in sorrow, saying, ‘O God, be merciful to me, for I am a sinner.’

I tell you, this sinner, not the Pharisee, returned home saved in the eyes of God.”

Luke 18:10-14


“A true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, and our murders, we are not going to be judged.”

Czesław Miłosz

Stocks were mixed today, with big tech attempting to rally while the broader markets were sluggish.

Traders were impressed with the print on new jobs added in a report from ADP this morning. I had thought that ADP was obtaining their numbers from actual data from their payroll services business. Instead I find from reading this article that it has become more of an educated guess in the manner of the BLS imaginary jobs report.

Although VIX volatility (risk) indicator moved higher, gold and silver moved lower in an inverse correlation to the dollar.

I am liking silver here. I will like it quite a bit more if it can hold 17 and rally back from there after this Payrolls and FOMC nonsense is past us.

I hear India has been buying gold again, as a portion of the general phenomenon of Asia buying the hardest, least counterparty contingent currencies known throughout history.

The Beltway Bandits have gone barking mad. Hypocrisy and deception are their meat and potatoes. Of course I think everyone can now see it, but it has been a long time coming. This is what happens when fraud becomes fashionable.

I was so disgusted with the new 'healthcare' proposal from Ryan and the GOP house that I really could not say much yesterday except 'justice is coming.'

Justice is coming. That is an interesting phrase. How we react to it says something about ourselves to ourselves, in how we interpret it. What is just, and who will it affect?

And that may be the most useful thing of all.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Chart - Who Could Have Seen It Coming?

 

"Could you see, what God sees, those snares and pitfalls which the devil is placing about your path; could you see that all your idle thoughts which you cherish, which seem so bright and pleasant, so much pleasanter than religious thoughts, are inspired by that ancient seducer of mankind, doubtless you would tremble, even as he does while he tempts you. 

But this you cannot possibly see, you cannot break your delusion, except by first taking God's word in this matter on trust. You cannot see the unseen world at once. They who ever speak with God in their hearts, are in turn taught by Him in all knowledge; but they who refuse to act upon the light, which God gave them by nature, at length come to lose it altogether. 

May God save us all from such wilful sin, old as well as young, and enlighten us one and all in His saving knowledge, and give us the will and the power to serve Him."

John Henry Newman

 

"Listen you greedy ones.  Weep and groan with sorrow because of the terrible troubles coming for you. The very wealth you were counting on will eat away your flesh like fire. This  treasure you have hoarded will testify against you on the day of judgment.  

Hear the cries of the workers whom you have cheated of their pay. The cries of those who work for you have reached the ears of the Lord of heaven's host.  You have spent your years on earth in luxury, satisfying your every desire. You have fattened yourselves for the day of slaughter.  You have condemned and ruined innocent people, who could not resist you."

James 5:1-6

 

Stocks made another weak rally attempt in the overnight, and then fell down hard in the trading day, going out near the lows.

The NDX has now hit the 38.2 fibonacci retracement level for it's long bubblicious rally.

Who could have seen it coming?

Gold and silver continued to move higher.

In all this excitement they pretty much ignored the Comex option expiration today, even though it was for a fairly inconsequential contract month. 

Tomorrow is another day.

The Dollar drifted back over the 96 handle.

The markets will continue to be volatile and dangerous as previously cautioned.

The markets were unstable, with weak underpinnings for lofty valuations.

All it took was a trigger event.

If not the Ukraine it would have been something else. 

Are you not entertained?

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Black Thursday - The Crash of 2020

“Everybody knows that pestilences have a way of recurring in the world; yet somehow we find it hard to believe in ones that crash down on our heads from a blue sky.  There have been as many plagues as wars in history; yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise.

When a war breaks out, people say: 'It's too stupid; it can't last long.'  But though a war may well be 'too stupid,' that doesn't prevent its lasting.  Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.  In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words they were human: they disbelieved in pestilences.

Albert Camus, The Plague


"Things are going to be getting very real this year, even as some continue to deny reality, to an almost astonishing degree of self-absorption and denial.   What is it going to take?"

Jesse, 27 February 2020


"Now is a good time to prepare, if you have not already done so, and to begin engaging in those simple procedures that may help us weather this."

Jesse, 28 February 2020


"This is going to end badly. Big changes are coming. What has been hidden will be revealed.  Rough seas ahead, mateys."

Jesse, 22 January 2020, I See It Coming

The market crashed today, or at least put the finishing touch on the first phase of the crash of 2020.

As you may recall I have been talking about the significance of this year, specifically the period before July, since 2018.

And away we go.

The Fed is coming in with the money spigot flush open tomorrow, to try and save the debt markets from locking up, thereby seizing the financial system.

I hope they succeed, at least temporarily.

The media pundits are talking again about the V shaped recovery, and buying up these bargains.

This is not over yet.  It will not be done until the virus has nearly run its course, and the economic impact has become known.

But the Merry Pranksters of Wall Street are rarely encumbered by conscience or shame.

I saw something remarkable today.  They were emptying the shelves at the local grocery store.  Not the usual bread-milk-water storm provisions.  No, they literally emptied the meat and poultry sections and the restocking from inventory as well, before 2 in the afternoon.

It looks like El Presidente shook up his comfortable Republican constituency in our 'hood last night. No one was saying 'media hype' today.

Ironically enough it appears that he was exposed to an infected person, but is not concerned enough to take a test.   I'll bet Melania is not so blasé about it, especially with regard to their son.

Dolly and I are 'social-distancing' as they say.   The young man is still in Oxford, England, and won't be returning for a little while.  I miss Mary, my best friend, especially on days like this.  But I am glad that I do not have to be concerned about her. 

Read the first quote from Camus above, and think hard about it, what it is saying.

Losses in the stock market are one thing, although sometimes it seems that this is the biggest concern here in these United States.  

The loss of friends and loved ones makes paper money losses pale by comparison.  Things can be replaced, people can't.   And that is what we are facing in this, at the end of the day, even as we choose to ignore it.

Repentance, forgiveness, thankfulness.

Have a pleasant evening.