Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - To the Darkest Hour Comes the Dawn

"Caesar was swimming in blood, Rome and the whole pagan world was mad. But those who had had enough of transgression and madness, those who were trampled upon, those whose lives were misery and oppression, all the weighed down, all the sad, all the unfortunate, came to hear the wonderful tidings of God, who out of love for men had given Himself to be crucified and redeem their sins.

When they found a God whom they could love, they had found that which the society of the time could not give any one—  happiness and love."

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis: In the Time of Nero


“Do not let your hearts be troubled.  You have put your trust in God, and so trust also in me."

John 14:1

The First Quarter GDP number came in quite low, surprising those who have not been following the forecasts from the Atlanta Fed. I suspect that it will be revised lower in the next few iterations.

Additionally, the 'chain deflator' or the measure of inflation in this report was higher than expected at 2.3%.

So with very low growth, and higher inflation, we see some evidence of that odd phenomenon that is really the child of exogenous forces and continuing policy errors once thought to be impossible called stagflation.

Silver began trading its May contract with a large number of paper claims trading hands as noted below in the clearing report from yesterday. JPM's house account is notably absent, although a 'customer' of that bank sold a large number of contracts.

The first chart below shows that the Shiller P/E index is now at the same level of that bubble in 1929.

I was amused to hear some of the Wall St denizens and spokesmodels noting that the bubble can certainly go much higher, so now may be a good time to buy.

Remember that salvation has been bought for us by the greatest love that one can receive, and that we should therefore take no pride in it.  Rather, we are a child not of our own works or words but of mercy, and we are therefore expected, no we are commanded, to extend that mercy to others.  As you judge, so shall you be judged.

To take pride in our position and status and knowledge in the manner of the Pharisees, and especially to abuse our faith as a platform for hatred, violence, and other offenses against others, is to sin against the Spirit.  And this is the one sin that will not be easily forgiven.

This then is a purpose of suffering, that we may be kept safe from such a temptation to think so falsely of ourselves, and imagine ourselves to be what we are not.  For it is in this disordered pride that the first sin found its mark.

"The common are but a breath, the highborn but a lie. If weighed on a balance, they are nothing; together they are only a breath, less substantial than their vanity."

Psalm 62:9

Spring is in full force here, and life is abounding.  The queen and dolly are getting along well, and keeping me busy.   Three more of these radiation treatments, and then the waiting begins again.

In seeing, so that we may believe.

Please remember the poor in both wealth and spirit.  And especially God's creatures who have been entrusted to your care.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Puzzling Evidence

You got the CBS...!
And the ABC...!
You got Time and Newsweek!
Well, they're the same to me!

Now don't you wanna get right with me?
Puzzling evidence
I hope you get everything you need
Puzzling Evidence

Puzzling evidence
Puzzling evidence
Puzzling evidence
Done hardened in your heart.

Talking Heads, Puzzling Evidence

The Nasdaq big cap techs have powered up to a new all time high. Looking a little parabolic there guys, even if the prospects of repatriating all that cash stashed in overseas tax havens can come back to your pockets for acquisitions, dividends, and stock buybacks.

Alphabet, the behemoth formerly known as Google, has about $50 billion in cash sitting overseas.

I happened to notice today the the year over year growth in the MZM money stock has fallen to its lowest level since it bottomed in 2010 in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

There is a lot of liquidity out there. Apparently it is not making it into the hands of ordinary people. I wonder where it all is.

The Republicans are looking to fund major tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy using deficit spending.

I think the plan is to let the deficits grow, and then go after spending on the kinds of things that do not benefits corporations and the wealthy, like medicare, social security, and the social safety net. Wait for it.

Gold and silver were quiet even in the post option expiration as it was risk on.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Sell the News - Qu'est-ce Que C'est

"Psychopaths [and sociopaths] have a grandiose self-structure which demands a scornful and detached devaluation of others, in order to ward off their envy toward the good perceived in other people."

Robert D. Hare, Without Conscience


“The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small. It is nearly nil.”

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929


“In a nation run by swine, all the pigs are upwardly mobile, and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely.”

Hunter S. Thompson


"And where they make a desert, they call it peace."

Tacitus, Agricola

Donald and His Merry Pranksters were rolling out the greatest tax cut in history today.

It was interesting to watch the stock and precious metals futures fluctuate, as Messrs Cohn and Mnuchin were speaking. I did have a chance to do that today, since the daily hospital visits are in the morning, and I seem to be getting caught up with the household chores as the queen finds herself increasingly fatigued. Alas, the mispricing in these markets was so apparent that I could not resist making a few trades during the ebb and flow of expectations and short term trends that reversed somewhat sharply into the close. Even an old dog can hear the call to the chase now and again.

I won't characterize the plan yet, especially since it is still in its formative stage, to say the least. There are plenty of others who will be expending an enormous amount of energy to do that, with a great deal of furious rhetoric both pro and con. I will, in my own artfully lazy way, be on the lookout for some good commentaries that are lighter on the bias, and the 'say for pay.' That is not easy to do these days. Truth has been led down the blind alleys of the airwaves and the ivory towers, and strangled.

But let's just say that the hopes for The Recovery™ are not enhanced by anything that I have heard out of Washington in quite some time, and that outlook certainly did not change due to anything I may have heard today. Who knows what will actually come out of this Congress? We are watching the usual suspects who have been looting the country for the past twenty years or more. How would we expect anything to be different?

But as Garrison Keillor noted, even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people. Lacking any other purpose in life, it would be good enough to live for their sake. And so we have some work to do.

Have a pleasant evening.