Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Of Black Swans and Cooked Goose

 

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that any one who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter.  The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. 

Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seat at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war.  Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance. ”

Winston Churchill, My Early Life 1930, p. 229

"The Commonwealth of Rome grew great by the misery of the rest of mankind.  The Romans, like others as soon as they grew rich, grew corrupt; and in their corruption sold the lives and freedoms of themselves, and of one another.”

Samuel Johnson, Review of Memoirs of the Court of Augustus, 1756

"Trust in God, but everyone else shows the data.  Check the facts and the underlying assumptions.  The reason should be obvious, but people deal with the complexities of life by using assumptions, which are a kind of shorthand way of breaking reality down into manageable chunks.  Everyone does it. 

But it is useful, and prudent, to check those assumptions you make, and that other people are making, to see if they are still valid, especially if they involve things that are important (cf. Long Term Capital Management).  Is there a bus coming down the road you are crossing?  Are you financially solvent?  Have you allowed for lower probability but potentially corrosive and existential risks? (Taleb's famous Black Swan).  Those sorts of things."

Jesse, Investment Performance for 2007,  December 21, 2007

"All governments [and organizations] suffer a recurring problem: power attracts pathological personalities.  It is not that power corrupts, but that it is magnetic to the corruptible."

Frank Herbert, Chapterhouse Dune, March 1985

"Psychopaths don’t feel they have psychological or emotional problems, and they see no reason to change their behavior to conform with societal standards they do not agree with.  Psychopaths see the rules and expectations of society as inconvenient and unreasonable impediments to their own behavioral expression.  They make their own rules, both as children and as adults. 

Many of the antisocial acts of psychopaths lead to criminal charges and convictions.  But not all psychopaths end up in jail.  Many of the things they do escape detection or prosecution, or are on 'the shady side of the law.'  For them, antisocial behavior may consist of phony stock [and crypto] promotions, questionable business practices, spouse or child abuse, and so forth.  Many others do things that, though not necessarily illegal, are nevertheless unethical, immoral, or harmful to others: philandering or cheating on a spouse to name a few."

Robert Hare, How to Spot Predators Before They Attack, December 5, 2017

"They know of no solutions to the paradoxes of the Middle East and Europe, the Far East and Africa except the landing of Marines. Being baffled, and also being very tired of being baffled, they have come to believe that there is no way out—except war—which would remove all the bewildering paradoxes of their tedious and now misguided attempts to construct peace. In place of these paradoxes they prefer the bright, clear problems of war—as they used to be. For they still believe that 'winning' means something, although they never tell us what.

Some men want war for sordid, others for idealistic, reasons; some for personal gain, others for impersonal principle. But most of those who consciously want war and accept it, and so help to create its 'inevitability,' want it in order to shift the locus [epicenter] of their problems."

C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III, 1958 pp. 86-89


Stocks slumped and then rallied hard into the close.

This was the usual Monday short squeeze where they jam up the specs who took short positions in the market as a safeguard over the weekend.

Gold and silver were slammed, but they both bounced, with silver showing an impressive rise for a decent gain.

I wonder if Bessent and his oligarch buddies are running low on ammo like Hegseth is.

VIX came in hot with slumping stocks this morning, and then collapsed back down into the afternoon.

The Dollar popped at the open of NY trading, and then fell sharply into the close.

The market here is largely smoke and mirrors.  Be careful.

Bitcoin managed to hold a decent bounce.  Good for them.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

A little economic data on jobs from ADP will be coming out tomorrow morning. 

Wednesday is the more important release when we get some inflation data.  Alas, it's already a bit dated because it will not take into account the inflationary effects of the Iran war.

I keep playing scenarios on the outcome of this global adventurism, and they always seem to come out from very bad to disastrous.

As I have said, the US decision to participate in Netanyahu's war will be viewed in retrospect with the Germany invasion of Russia in Operation Barbarossa.

The way things are going if we are able to have unimpeded midterm elections, not by any means a sure thing, then the GOP will probably lose their Congressional majority and the Democrats will be able to make some headway in reining in this imperial presidency.

Even better, if the Democrats can displace Schumer and Jefferies from their leadership we might see some more meaningful reform.  But that does not seem likely at the moment. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - All Who Labor For God In a Dark Time

 

"All governments suffer a recurring problem: power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible. Such people have a tendency to become drunk on violence, a condition to which they are quickly addicted."

Frank Herbert, Chapterhouse Dune, 1985

"His instruments are poor and despised; the world hardly knows their names, or not at all. They are busied about what the world thinks petty actions, and no one minds them. They are apparently set on no great works; nothing is seen to come of what they do.

Let this be the settled view of all who would promote Christ's cause upon earth. If we are true to ourselves, nothing can really thwart us. Our warfare is not with carnal weapons, but with heavenly. The world does not understand what our real power is, and where it lies. And until we put ourselves into its hands of our own act, it can do nothing against us.  Let all who would labour for God in a dark time beware of any thing which ruffles, excites, and in any way withdraws them from the love of God and Christ, and simple obedience to Him.

Such is the rule of our warfare. We advance by yielding; we rise by falling; we conquer by suffering; we persuade by silence; we become rich by bountifulness ; we inherit the earth through meekness; we gain comfort through mourning; we earn glory by penitence and prayer. Heaven and earth shall sooner fall than this rule be reversed; it is the law of Christ's kingdom, and nothing can reverse it but sin."

John Henry Newman, Sermons on the Subjects of the Day, June 13, 1841

"Psychopathy is a personality disorder characterized by twenty well-documented traits and characteristics.  The most visible are glib/superficial charm, a grandiose sense of self worth, a strong need for stimulation (that is, psychopaths are easily bored) and impulsivity.  However, there are others, which they successfully hide from view, in particular pathological lying, conning, manipulation, a lack of empathy, remorse and guilt.  Over time, one might begin to see examples of irresponsibility, lack of realistic, long-term goals, and their failure to take responsibility for their own actions."

Paul Babiak, Robert Hare, Snakes In Suits, May 9, 2006 

Stocks rallied back from steep losses, finishing into the green at the close.

Gold and silver advanced again sharply, giving back only a little.

The Dollar fell, prompting more bullishness in the metals.

Bitcoin rallied in the last half hour.  Smells like teen spirit.

Odd timing for all this in the depths of December.

Their arrogant ambitions know no shame, or bounds. 

Please try to remember God's creatures, huddling in the cold. 

“At this Christmas when Christ comes, will He find a warm heart? Mark the season of Advent by loving and serving others with God’s own love and concern."

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Whims and Desires of the Elite

 

"Let them wait, if their past experience shall induce them to think that any high honour or any exquisite pleasure is to be obtained by a policy like this.  Let them wait, if this strange and fearful infatuation be indeed upon them, that they should not see with their eyes, or hear with their ears, or understand with their heart.  But let us know our interest and our duty better.  Turn where we may, within, around, the voice of great events is proclaiming to us,  'Reform, that you may preserve.'"

Thomas B. Macaulay, Speech Before Parliament, March 2, 1831

"The real problem for others is when narcissistic features, especially a sense of entitlement and a lack of empathy, shade into antisocial and destructive behaviors.  When this happens, the pattern might be described as aggressive or malignant narcissism, which is difficult to distinguish from psychopathy.

Another characteristic of psychopaths is an ability to avoid taking responsibility for things that go wrong; instead, they blame others, circumstances, fate, and so forth.  Psychopaths will lie even to people who already know the truth about what they are saying. Even in the face of contrary evidence, the psychopath can lie so well that listeners doubt themselves first, rather than question the psychopath."

Babiak and Hare, Snakes in Suits, May 2006

"There is a class of individuals who have been around forever and who are found in every race, culture, society and walk of life.  Everybody has met these people, been deceived and manipulated by them, and forced to live with or repair the damage they have wrought.  These often charming-but always deadly-individuals have a clinical name: psychopaths.  Their hallmark is a stunning lack of conscience; their game is self-gratification at the other person’s expense.  All take far more than they give.

The most obvious expressions of psychopathy-but not the only ones-involve the flagrant violation of society’s rules.  Not surprisingly, many psychopaths are criminals, but many others manage to remain out of prison, using their charm and chameleon-like coloration to cut a wide swathe through society, leaving a wake of ruined lives behind them.

Psychopaths appear amazingly unfazed by the possibility, or even by the certainty, of being found out. When caught in a lie or challenged with the truth, they seldom appear perplexed or embarrassed-they simply change their stories or attempt to rework the facts so they appear to be consistent with the lie. The result is a series of contradictory statements and a thoroughly confused listener. And psychopaths seem proud of their ability to lie."

Robert Hare, The Charming Psychopath: How to Spot Social Predators, Psychology Today, 2007

"The more power a government has the more it can act arbitrarily according to the whims and desires of the elite, and the more it will make war on others and murder its foreign and domestic subjects.  Power will achieve its murderous potential.  It simply waits for an excuse, an event of some sort, an assassination, a massacre in a neighboring country, an attempted coup, a famine, or a natural disaster, to justify the beginning of murder en masse."

R. J. Rummel, Death by Government: A History of Mass Murder and Genocide, 1994


Stocks gave back some of their rocket rally from yesterday.

Just a normal pull back so far.

Gold and silver rallied, but gave it back in the afternoon.

There will be a option expiration on the Comex this coming Thursday the 25th.

VIX ticked up a bit.

Bitcoin continued to decline.

There is a new documentary about the tragic US war in Afghanistan called 'Bodyguard of Lies.'  It is coming out on Paramount+.   It looks to be a good one.  

The US spent 300 million dollars per day for 20 years on the failed military exercise against the Taliban, not including the tragic loss and disruption of life.   A few gained wealth and power from it.

"Faustus had advanced beyond the level of a scarlet sinner — he was a conscious follower of the Prince of Darkness."

E.A. Bucchianeri, Faust: My Soul Be Damned for the World, 2008

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The First Drop In the Onrushing Abyss

 

“I know your works; I know that you are neither cold nor hot.  But because you are lukewarm, neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth. For you say, ‘I am rich and affluent and have no need of anything,’ and yet do not realize that you are wretched, poor, pitiable, naked, and blind."

Revelation 3:15-17

"Either we have hope within us or we don’t; it’s a dimension of the soul; it’s not essentially dependent on some particular observation of the world or estimate of the situation.  Hope is not prognostication.  It is an orientation of the spirit, an orientation of the heart; it transcends the world that is immediately experienced, and is anchored somewhere beyond its horizons. 

Hope, in this deep and powerful sense, is not the same as joy that things are going well, or willingness to invest in enterprises that are obviously headed for early success, but, rather, an ability to work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed."

Vaclav Havel, Disturbing the Peace, 1990

“It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, April 2007

"Now might be a good time to find something that you can firmly believe in, something that is greater and better than yourself, and then hang on to it and faithfully serve it, with all your strength and hope."

Jesse, La Vie en Rose, 18 August 2015

"And Peter understood that neither Nero, nor all his legions, could overcome the living truth— that they could not overwhelm it with tears or blood, and that now its victory was beginning.

He understood with equal force why the Lord had turned him back on the road.  That city of pride, of crime, of wickedness, and of a lust for power, was beginning to be His."

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis, 1896 

Stocks managed to hold a modest rally today.

There was a hidden weakness on the tape amidst all the bravado.

The Dollar gave up the 98 handle.

Watch the Bond and the Dollar.   They will speak the truths that risk assets like equities hide.

VIX is still mispricing risks of all manner.  

Hubris knows no fear, until it feels the first breath-taking plunge into the abyss.

Those imperious few.  

They will be scattered remnants on the streets of hell, voicelessly blown here and there by dull, directionless winds. 

In the end, the only thing that matters is to be among the saints.

Have a pleasant evening 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Conmen, Bullies, and Puppetmasters

 

"'A lot of white-collar criminals are psychopaths,' said Robert Hare.  'But they flourish because the characteristics that define the disorder are actually valued.  When they get caught, what happens?  A slap on the wrist, a six-month ban from trading, and don't give us the $100 million back.  I've always looked at white-collar crime as being as bad or worse than some of the physically violent crimes that are committed.'

Hare has said that if he couldn't study psychopaths in prisons, the Vancouver Stock Exchange would have been his second choice.  Psychopaths can be found in legislatures, hospitals, and used-car lots.  Because they have no conscience, they're natural predators. If you didn't have a conscience, you'd be one too.

Psychopaths love chaos and hate rules, so they're comfortable in the fast-moving modern corporation.  Dr. Paul Babiak, an industrial-organizational psychologist based near New York City, is in the process of writing a book with Bob Hare called When Psychopaths Go to Work: Cons, Bullies and the Puppetmaster. The subtitle refers to the three broad classes of psychopaths Babiak has encountered in the workplace."

Robert Hercz, Psychopaths Among Us, 2001

"When the person at the top is malignant and self-serving, unethical behavior cascades through the organization and becomes legitimized.

Narcissists change the companies or countries they lead, much like bad money drives out good, and those changes can outlast their own tenure, O’Reilly says. Divergent voices are silenced, flattery and servility are rewarded, and cynicism and apathy corrode any sense of shared purpose in a culture where everyone’s out for themselves. In the extreme, they can destroy the institution itself.

But the gravest danger posed by such leaders is that their malignant influence guides the behavior and expectations of others — and ultimately shapes the culture of the organization or polity in their own image. Studies of businesses show that self-serving, unethical behavior at the top cascades through the organization and becomes legitimized, or at least normalized.

“Once they’re in power, narcissists consolidate their position by firing everyone who challenges them,” O’Reilly says. In their place rise a plague of toadies, opportunists, and enablers equally guided by self-interest and short on scruples. 'So you end up with these individualistic cultures with no teamwork and low integrity. We’ve documented this in a bunch of Silicon Valley tech firms.'”

Lee Simmons, How Narcissistic Leaders Destroy From Within, Stanford Business, April 30, 2020

"Malignant narcissism goes beyond mere self-centeredness.  It goes beyond feeling special.   And it goes beyond feeling superior.  Malignant narcissists lack the capacity for empathy and shame.  They also know this makes them different from others.  But they deeply prize these critical differences. And they hold those not like them in utter disdain. 

Narcissism becomes particularly 'malignant' (i.e. malevolent, dangerous, harmful, incurable) when it goes beyond mere vanity and excessive self-focus. Malignant narcissists not only see themselves as superior to others but believe in their superiority to the degree that they view others as relatively worthless, expendable, and justifiably exploitable.

This type of narcissism is a defining characteristic of psychopathy/sociopathy and is rooted in an individual’s deficient capacity for empathy.  It’s almost impossible for a person with such shallow feelings and such haughtiness to really care about others or to form a conscience with any of the qualities we typically associate with a humane attitude, which is why most researchers and thinkers on the topic of psychopathy think of psychopaths as individuals without a conscience altogether."

George Simon, Malignant Narcissism, December 27, 2013


Stocks sold off on the worse than expected economic data this morning.

But, wonder of wonders, they managed to take back all their losses and rally green into the close.

There were reports of a break in the Ukraine Russia talks, though I doubt anyone in Russia  knows or cares what they are talking about. 

Kind of like the talks that had supposedly occurred on tariffs with President Xi, which he said were imaginary.

Surely this is a sign of the prosperity and magnificence of Empire, which creates its own reality.

The Dollar bounced up to the top of the 99 handle.

VIX fell back to its 50 day moving average.

Gold and silver fell off a bit.

Ending badly.    

Have a pleasant evening.