NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Claims Per Ounce of Gold at 55

A follow on bear raid designed to test the will to hold the futures contracts, in which open interest in gold is high against deliverables. Silver has a low open interest relatively speaking.

The only thing this does is to increase the offtake of physical bullion around the world by distorting prices, increasing demand while decreasing longer term supply.

At these prices, claims per deliverable ounce of silver are 13 and for gold they are up to 55.  It would be hard to hold off a run on the metals at these levels without sharply higher prices.

But why have a care? Wall St. is not noted for long term thinking.

About the Proposed Military Action Against Syria Being Considered in the Congress

I have not said much on this, and I do not intend to say much more than this here.  This is a financial site, but sometimes political events intrude so deeply on the state of the economy that they cannot be overlooked even on a non-political site.

I have not made up my mind on this, and I am very open to facts.

However, I would like to point out that so far there has been no clear evidence presented that there was a gas attack on the Syrian people that was perpetrated by the government forces of President Assad so as to persuade the international community.  And no independent authority has made a clear pronouncement on this matter.

Has the UN said that they have examined the evidence and have concluded beyond all reasonable doubt that it was indeed a crime against humanity, and that it was not some false flag by the al-Qaeda rebels who are fighting to overthrow the government?  These are al-Qaeda, who are otherwise our enemies in several recent wars and domestic terror attacks, ruthless and unprincipled, and who would be a major beneficiary of the ability to use the US as their strategic air support in their civil war.

Can one be so politically tone deaf as to not understand how important it is to make a case to the people that is reasoned and factually solid, so that there could be little question of the fitness and the appropriateness of the proposed military actions?

I am saddened, deeply, by pictures of injured people and especially children. There are far too many of them from around the world.   But I also remember stories about children and infants being callously injured in the lead up to the first two Iraq wars by both Bush I and Bush II that were later shown to be fabricated.

Before any more lives are risked, both American and Syrian, it seems eminently reasonable to expect a clear rationale for any action, and strong evidence that persuades at least a meaningful number of our international allies, besides the few who are already predisposed to attack Iran and its allies no matter what else because it provides a substantial benefit to them.

 And I believe that this principle has been eloquently stated, and ignored, in the recent past, as shown in the example below.   There are a number of like-minded people around the world who wish to see the evidence, and to be persuaded of the principle of the cause and accuracy of the facts before they commitment themselves to any actions, only to find themselves disappointed afterwards once again.

"I don't oppose all wars. What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne.

What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income, to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Depression.

That's what I'm opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics...

I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

I am not opposed to all wars. I'm opposed to dumb wars. So for those of us who seek a more just and secure world for our children, let us send a clear message to the president."

State Senator Barack H. Obama, October 2002

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - September Antics On Light Trading Volumes

I suspect many senior traders and managers have extended Labor Day weekend holidays still going.

Or perhaps people see how badly distorted the short term trading metals has become, and are choosing not to play.

"It's a market that's been sewn up by banks and trade houses, and others can't operate.  That's OK, that's business, but we can choose not to be in that business."

Lars Steffensen, Ebullio Exits 'Impossible' Metals Trading

Gold and silver had some technical looking bear raid action going on as downward pressure was applied from the earlier trading hours.

So far it is much ado about setting what looks like a 'right shoulder' in the inverse head and shoulders bottom. 

Let's see how the week goes, keeping our eyes on Syria and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

And also on the COMEX deliverables which are historically a bit on the slim side, suggesting higher prices to come.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Technical Trade On Very Light Volumes

Volumes are rather light this week, even for the beginning of September. I wonder if some senior traders and managers took the whole holiday-shortened week off.

So what next. Keep an eye on Syria, and your other eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

"Nec eventus modo hoc docet, stultorum iste magister est, sed eadem ratio, quae fuit futuraque, donec res eaedem manebunt, immutabilis est."

Livy, History of Rome, Book 22

And it is not only the result that will instruct them, that teacher of fools, but reason itself, which was and will be unchanging, so long as the same fundamental conditions still hold.

Claims Per Deliverable Ounce of Gold Rise To Over 54 As the August Delivery Period Ends

"When I began the Ponzi scheme I believed it would end shortly and I would be able to extricate myself and my clients from the scheme. However, this proved difficult, and ultimately impossible, and as the years went by I realized that this day would inevitably come..."

Bernard Madoff

The August delivery period on the COMEX ended last Friday with a little over 701,000 ounces of gold marked as deliverable in their warehouses.

Higher prices may be required to pry more ounces of real bullion out of storage and into the deliverable category.

August has passed, but September has just begun.   And soon enough the winds will turn cold.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - I'm Your Huckleberry

We may be heading into a showdown this fall between paper and physical gold, if the players don't back off on price and allow some growth in inventory.

And as for the always volatile silver, it's got two guns, one for each of you.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Everybody Wants To Get In On the Act

Stock shook off the over holiday weekend rally and the better than expected ISM manufacturing index this morning and ended the day somewhat weakly as more martial rhetoric issued from Washington with regard to Syria today.

As a reminder there is a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday for the month of August.

Precious Metals Calendar Through Year End 2013

Gold in particular is going through the big month of September with a rather slim deliverable inventory.

Economic Calendar: Lions, And Tigers, And Jobs, Oh My!

There is plenty of economic data packed into this holiday-shortened week, with the highlight being the August Jobs Report on Friday.

War jitters in the Mideast are likely to overshadow most domestic statistics.

Gold Opens On the US Globex Trade With a Sharp Zig Zag Headfake

"Honest, industrious, peaceful citizens were classed as bloodsuckers, if they asked to be paid a living wage. And they saw that praise was reserved henceforth for those who devised means of getting paid enormously for committing crimes..."

Kurt Vonnegut, God Bless You Mr. Rosewater


"Like a boil that can never be cured so long as it is covered up but must be opened with all its ugliness to the natural medicines of air and light, injustice must be exposed, with all the tension its exposure creates, to the light of human conscience and the air of national opinion before it can be cured."

Martin Luther King, Letter From a Birmingham Jail

Just in case you were running with stop loss orders set too tightly, there was a nice zig zag open on the NY Globex in the gold futures trade.

SP 500 stock futures were goosed sharply higher, up to minor resistance.

Chris Hedges and the Real News On Syria

What seems most disturbing is the lack of consensus amongst reasonable people that is driven by evidence. 

While this is and should always be a concern, given the US missteps and incorrect statements in the lead up to the war in Iraq, it is almost unbelievable that the leadership lacked the political sensitivity to make a strong and credible case before threatening military action.

Potential Claims Per Deliverable (Registered) Ounce Remains Elevated On the Comex

Potential claims against deliverable supply on the COMEX remains elevated at about 52 per ounce as the Exchange muddled through the end of the August delivery period.

The claims spread out over every available ounce stored at COMEX warehouses, whether it is for sale or not, is also high at 5.46 per ounce.   There is an incentive to store one's bullion in a registered COMEX warehouse because one does not have to go through the re-evaluation process and expense if they decide to sell their gold bullion there.

It will take higher prices to encourage eligible bullion into the deliverable category. 

Frank Church: The Abyss From Which There Is No Return

[America’s intelligence gathering] capability at any time could be turned around on the American people and no American would have any privacy left. Such is the capability to monitor everything: telephone conversations, telegrams, it doesn’t matter. There would be no place to hide.

If this government ever became a tyrant, if a dictator ever took charge in this country, the technological capacity that the intelligence community has given the government could enable it to impose total tyranny, and there would be no way to fight back because the most careful effort to combine together in resistance to the government, no matter how privately it was done, is within the reach of the government to know. Such is the capability of this technology.

I don’t want to see this country ever go across the bridge. I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we must see to it that [the NSA] and all agencies that possess this technology operate within the law and under proper supervision so that we never cross over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return.

Senator Frank Church on Meet The Press, 17 August 1975

COMEX Registered Gold Drops To 702,000 Ounces On the Day Before Delivery End

About 11,600 ounces of gold were added to the eligible storage facility at HSBC, and 22,446 ounces were transferred from registered (deliverable) status to eligible storage.  This is the activity which occurred on Thursday which was reported today.

The total ounces of registered deliverable gold have fallen to 702,488 ounces of gold bullion. 

The total ounces of gold stored in COMEX authorized warehouses remains a little over 7 million ounces.

September is not a delivery month on the COMEX.  But most gold in the world changes hands in exchanges like Shanghai and London.  And they will be open for business as always.

Ironically September is often a good month for gold on a seasonal basis.

The New York crowd may push the price around the plate, but on an historical basis their hands and mouths are moving quickly, but their pockets are light.   And won't that be a day of days when the accounts are finally called to be reckoned.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - End of Month and Delivery Period Antics

The US is having a three day weekend because of the national holiday on Monday.

Let's see how the rest of the world muddles through in the markets without its guidance.

War drums are still beating for Syria, but with Britain standing aside there is a bit of a wobble.

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Worst Month For US Stocks Since May 2012

Stocks shook off the 'better than expected' revision to Michigan Consumer Confidence, and concentrated on war jitters for most of the day.

There was a last half hour jam higher as the algos kicked in and put a little paint on the tape for the end of month. Still despite the late push this was the worst monthly performance for US stocks since May of 2012.

The States will have a three day weekend celebrating a national holiday on Monday. Let's see how the Syria discussions progress.

Have a pleasant weekend.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Fund

Precious metals are under some pressure on the last trading day of August.

Let's see how we go into the holiday weekend in the US.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - White Boys Lost In the Blues

"Blues is like the roux in a gumbo. People ask me if jazz always has the blues in it. I say, if it sounds good it does."

Wynton Marsalis

As you may have seen last night, deliverable gold took another big dip yesterday as a good sized gold stash was warehouse transferred from registered to eligible.  I added some charts to that post from sharelynx.com earlier today.

There is also intraday commentary titled 'Wall Street Glitter Gulch' in which I talk about the post option expiration pullback here.

There was some talk today about the dip in gold being a sign of impending peace in the Middle East, tapering to come in September because of the slightly better than expected GDP revision this morning, yada yada.

This had all the look of the post option expiration hit on the September contract I was expecting, and which we really did not see in the first day after.

Despite some pockets of extraordinary excellence, gold commentary is, in general, not very well informed.  And this is not just a statement on the talking heads from financial television.   There are quite a few analysts and economists who act like they need to buy a vowel or two when it comes to the nature of money, as well informed they may appear to be on other matters. 

Perhaps they can't help it; they can talk and dress the game, but they don't have the soul to really play. They are just white boys lost in the blues.

P.S. Note to disappointed reader: I did not include Willem Buiter or Jon Nadler because they have been off the radar, and deserve to enjoy their privacy.   Although Mr. Nadler could almost certainly present a strong bid for a lifetime achievement award.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Hard Time Killin' Floor Blues

"The rich are always going to say that, you know, just give us more money and we'll go out and spend more and then it will all trickle down to the rest of you. But that has not worked the last 10 years, and I hope the American public is catching on."

Warren Buffett

The market tried to rally off the 'better than expected' GDP revision up to 2.5%, with an increase in the inflation factor up to .8% as well.

War jitters have the markets on their heels.

Low paid fast food workers went on strike today for a living wage.  For the disconnected view of reality Bloomberg TV did a fine job this afternoon.  "No one is forcing them to take those low paying jobs." 

But at the end of the day, the biggest fog of tone deafness surrounds Washington from the Beltway in, afflicting most of the power elite including the feral demagogues of the right.