The Mother of All Bull Markets

An absolutely amazing chart, if you think about it, and its implications. Recall that as the price goes up, the yield comes down.

Yes, there is a double entendre in that title.

US recession, Fed Funds Cut to 2.25%

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - UBS now sees the United States in a recession in the first half of 2008, as the persistent housing slump and financial market woes have spread into the broader economy, the investment bank said on Tuesday.

UBS also revised its forecast on how far the Federal Reserve would slash the key federal funds target rate to 2.25 percent later this year in a bid to revive growth.

U.S. gross domestic product is expected to contract 1.0 percent in the first quarter and 1.5 percent in the second quarter before growth in the second half of the year, UBS said in a research note on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, UBS said the Fed would lower the fed funds target to 2.25 percent before the end of the third quarter, compared with its earlier forecast of 3.25 percent.

The bank said in a research note that it does not expect the U.S. central bank to opt for an intermeeting rate cut "without a crash in the equities market."

(Does the recent inter-meeting rate cut and crash in progress count, or should we be looking for another one later on? J.)

Economic Recession Unlikely

Economic Recession Unlikely: Congressional Budget Office
Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:24am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The current U.S. economic slowdown will not turn into a recession and the economy will likely rebound next year as housing and financial market turmoil fades, the Congressional Budget Office forecast on Wednesday.

"Although recent data suggest that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased, CBO does not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large enough to register as a recession," the nonpartisan congressional budget analyst said in a new forecast.

"CBO expects the economy to rebound after 2008, as the negative effects of the turmoil in the housing and financial markets fade," the budget and economic report to Congress said.